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海湾地区的另一场较量The other struggle in the Gulf

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The other struggle in the Gulf
海湾地区的另一场较量
Sep 6th 2007
From The Economist print edition

What the rest of the world can do to stop America and Iran from talking themselves into a fight
美国伊朗互相挑衅，国际社会有何良方化解战争危机
Reuters

MOST Americans and much of the world is fixated on what General David Petraeus, the American ground commander in Iraq, intends to say when he reports to Congress next week. But in the meantime American relations with Iran appear to be going from bad to worse.
美国驻伊拉克的陆地指挥官大卫•佩崔尔将军下周就要向国会提交报告，这成为了美国和国际社会关注的焦点。然而，与此同时，美国与伊朗的敌对关系似乎更加恶化了。

The two countries are used to trading insults, but they have now become explosive. The more George Bush flounders in Iraq, the greater his temptation to blame Iran. On August 28th he called Iran the world's leading supporter of terrorism, claimed that its nuclear programme had put the Middle East “under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust” and authorised his commanders to confront Iran's “murderous activities”. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's president, sounds almost as if he is goading Mr Bush to attack. As a “master of tabulation and calculation”, he told Iranian students this week, he had concluded that the country's enemies “dare not fight us”.
美国和伊朗一直以来都互相谴责，现在已经进入白热化。布什在伊拉克越是，就越爱指责伊朗。8月28日，布什把伊朗说成是世界上恐怖主义的首要支持国，宣称伊朗的核计划把中东地区拖入了“核灾难的阴影之中”，并授权美军将领去打击伊朗的“谋杀行动”。伊朗总统艾哈迈迪•内贾德的言论就像在故意挑衅布什。本周，内贾德这位“制表和计算专家”告诉伊朗学生，他早已断定他们国家的敌人“不敢攻打伊朗”。

Whatever the master of tabulation may think, there is however a danger that America will at some point dare to strike Iran, either as part of its battle against Iranian-supported Shia militias inside Iraq, or in order to cripple its nuclear programme. Here, too, Mr Ahmadinejad is no help. No sooner had the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported at the end of August that Iran was going slow on uranium enrichment than he popped up to say the opposite. Iran, he said, had achieved its aim of running 3,000 uranium-enriching centrifuges and would add a new cascade every week.
不管这位制表专家怎么想，从某种角度来说，美国还是有攻打伊朗的可能的，目的或许是为了打击伊拉克境内的什叶派民兵，这些民兵运动是伊朗所支持的；或许是破坏伊朗的核计划。并且，内贾德处于孤立无援的境地。八月底，国际原子能机构（IAEA）刚刚公布伊朗的铀浓缩进程缓慢，内贾德就突然放出相反的说法。他说，伊朗已经实现了计划，运作了3000台用于铀浓缩的离心分离机，并且每周都会有一批新机器投入运作。

If America and Iran are really intent on talking each other into a fight, the rest of the world can do little to prevent it. But there are ways to reduce the chances of a war by accident.
如果美国和伊朗真的要蓄意挑衅起战争，国际社会也没有办法。但是我们却能够降低由意外事故引发战争的可能性。

The most urgent is to persuade America that it does not have to deal with Iran's nuclear delinquency on its own. Since July 2006 the UN Security Council has passed three binding resolutions ordering Iran to stop enriching uranium until it shows that, in spite of a history of fibbing, its nuclear intentions are peaceful. To their credit, Russia and China supported these resolutions—including two imposing mild economic sanctions—despite both countries' commercial interests in Iran. But as Mr Ahmadinejad boasts, Iran has ignored the UN. If the Russians and Chinese are serious about preventing proliferation and shoring up the authority of the Security Council, they should now be more willing to help the Americans and Europeans produce a new resolution with sharper teeth.
最要紧的是去说服美国，不用单方面去计较伊朗研发核计划的错误。从2006年7月起，联合国安理会通过了三个强制决议，要求伊朗停止核浓缩进程，直到伊朗展现出其推行核计划是为了和平发展，尽管伊朗素来有说谎的历史。让人高兴的是，俄罗斯和中国也支持这些决议，并给对伊朗进行了两项温和的经济制裁，尽管牺牲了俄中两国在伊拉克的经济利益。但是，内贾德夸口说伊朗已经不顾忌联合国了。如果俄罗斯和中国真的想要防止核扩散，巩固联合国的权威的话，这两国现在就应该给与美国和欧洲更多的支持，以更强硬的态度支持欧美去出台新决议。

The rest of the world should also inject more backbone into the IAEA. Mohamed ElBaradei, its director-general, is anxious to keep Iran in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and inspectors in the country—and to ward off an American military strike. These are honourable aims: an attack on Iran's nuclear sites might not succeed and could well start a war. But he is now falling into the trap of letting Iran earn a spurious seal of approval for activities his agency cannot properly monitor.
国际社会应该给国际原子能机构更多的支持。IAEA总干事穆罕默德•巴拉迪对眼下的工作感到担忧，让伊朗遵守核武器不扩散条约、让检察员留在伊朗，并且避免美国的军事袭击，这些工作实现起来都十分困难，但目标是光荣的，因为美军可能袭击不到伊朗的核站点，还会因此挑起战争。但巴拉迪现在遇到麻烦了：由于IAEA没能合理监管，伊朗拿到了不该拿到的批准书。

Iran and the IAEA have just announced a new understanding on future co-operation. It is a dreadful one. Though it lists several areas where inspectors have outstanding questions, it allows Iran to drip-feed information. The questions have to be in writing by the middle of this month. There is no real deadline for Iran's answers. Unless inspectors accept Iran's version of events and “close the file” on each successive subject, the Iranians won't provide the next set of answers, and so on. This leaves inspectors hard put to raise new questions when new information comes to hand. Iran has accredited a new list of inspectors—but only after barring those it found too intrusive.
伊朗和IAEA 最近公布了新的未来合作计划，然而这项计划并不让人满意。尽管计划列出了核检察员的几个重要问题，却给伊朗留了余地，能够一点一点道出信息。本月中旬，这一系列问题将被记录在案，伊朗的回答尚无最后期限。除非检察员接受伊朗所安排的计划，并且每一次检查都要“一锤定音”，否则伊朗不会提供下一轮答复，以此类推。这让检查人员在掌握了新信息之后很难提出新的问题。伊朗接受了新的检查人员名单—— 在已经排除了那些咄咄逼人的人员之后。

Missing the point
措施不力
The point of the recent succession of IAEA and UN resolutions, given Iran's history of lies and cover-ups, was to halt all enrichment and plutonium work. Yet the work is continuing. Mr ElBaradei has said it is pointless asking Iran to stop all enrichment work, since it has already mastered many of the skills. But others have these skills and do not use them. Mr ElBaradei's argument is that it is better to let Iran continue limited work under close supervision. The trouble is that his agency has no idea where else Iran is doing nuclear work, and so no idea where else these skills may be applied.
鉴于伊朗一向有欺瞒和遮掩的历史，国际原子能机构和联合国近期的协议旨在让伊朗停止所有的核浓缩和制钚工作。尽管国际组织一直在努力，但巴拉迪承认，要让伊朗停止核浓缩是不太可能的，因为伊朗已经掌握了很多这方面的技术。但是其它很多掌握了核技术的国家也没有搞核计划。巴拉迪的说法是，最好让伊朗在检查人员密切的监管下继续有限的工作。问题是国际原子能机构并不知道伊朗还在没在其它地方进行核计划，也不知道伊朗有没有把核技术运用到其它什么地方。

Mr Bush's approach to Iran has long been flawed. By appearing to threaten its regime after it had helped America to unseat the Taliban in Afghanistan, he may have confirmed it in its hostility and reinforced its desire for a bomb. More recently America and Iran have come to see each other as rivals for mastery of the post-Saddam Gulf. Their own interest, and the interests of the Middle East, would probably be better served if they explored the possibility of some sort of grand bargain. But that seems impossible if the Iranians think they have a clear run to a nuclear bomb. The region would be a good deal safer if the rest of the world did more to disabuse them.
布什对付伊朗的办法一向不高明。伊朗帮助美国颠覆塔利班在阿富汗的统治后，布什作出造颠覆伊朗政权的声势，或许是伊朗的敌意让布什更加想要对伊朗下手，这让伊朗更想要制造原子弹。近来，越来越多的美国人和伊朗人把对方视为后萨达姆时期海湾地区霸权地位的竞争者，其实两国本可以在一些重大问题上进行谈判，满足双方在中东地区的利益需求。但如果伊朗坚持要制造核武器的话，那么谈判的希望渺茫。如果国际社会作出更多努力去消除两国的矛盾的话，中东地区的安全形势本不应该那么糟糕。

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