2013年投资趋势:中西部投资、基于城镇化的轨交投资、节能环保新能源等,均是投资重点

上一篇 / 下一篇  2012-12-25 16:34:45 / 精华(3) / 置顶(1)


2012股票市场以第四季度艰难的上扬给市场信心。2013年,中国股票市场将继续震荡,价格中枢有所抬升。

 

股市的三大变量来看,第一个变量实体经济数据将有所好转。数字好转始于2012年第四季度,房地产市场回暖、基建投资上升、对来年投资的憧憬,使得银行股与部分周期性股票上升。

 

2013年将延续投资趋势,基于经济一体化的中西部投资、基于城镇化的轨交投资、基于美丽社会的节能环保新能源等,均是投资重点,另一方面,对于制造业转型的鼓励将会提升,精密仪器、大飞机、军工等投资还将增加,这也就意味着,2013年将以投资拉动经济,强有力的投资保障了宏观经济数据的好转。

 

市场并非一帆风顺,由于债务、银行不良率、利率市场化导致利润下降等综合因素的作用,银行股价高低起伏不定。与此同时,由于产能过剩顽疾未能解决,周期性股票也将时涨时落。

 

有媒体以外资购入中银股论证银行股逆转就此走出颓势。从20128月开始,QFII的确在这一期间大举抄底包括银行股在内的A股蓝筹股。中国证监会下属的投资者保护局证实,QFII今年8月份以来持续大幅增仓买入蓝筹股,今年8月以来,8月、9月、10QFII账户对沪市股票的单月净买入额分别为今年前7个月净买入总额的3倍、9倍和10倍。针对沪深300成分股中沪市股票,10QFII单月净买入额是今年前7个月净买入总额的40倍多。

 

这一现象可以解释为QFII进行价值投资,不过,不要忘记,就要部分外资小规模买入中资银行股的同时,汇丰正在出售中国平安。事实上,金融危机以后,作为中国金融机构战略投资者的外资进入了密集的羊毛收割期,瑞银于2008年的最后一天抛售了33.78亿股中行H股,美国银行200917日抛售56.2股建行H股,同日,香港李嘉诚基金配售中行20亿股股份。苏格兰皇家银行、淡马锡等机构于2007年就减持了中行、建行,目前这些金融机构从事波段操作,不再重提战略投资的往事,并且,一手做多一手做空,或者做多银行股通过指数做空,成为常见的对冲手段。在民生银行等案例上,这些手段被玩得炉火纯青,老虎亚洲基金甚至违规利用内幕交易对冲获取暴利,而受到美国证监会的严厉处罚。

 

第二个变量是估值,估值并不处于绝对最低,静态估值低不等于动态估值低。银行目前估值最低,但随着赢利下降或者温州等地、光伏等行业不良率上升,其市赢率将迅速上升。除去银行等蓝筹股,中小板、创业板估值优势并不明显。

 

根据证监会投保局的数据,截至201211月末,沪深两市平均市盈率为13.25倍,沪深300指数成分股的市盈率更在10倍左右,股息率达3.05%,而美国标普500指数成分股的市盈率则在14倍左右,股息率则为2.19%。显然,这样的计算有失公允,如果把战略投资者、大股东的获利刨除在外,中小投资者所获得的股息率将大降。更不必提,一些上市公司给予红股、现金红利就是为了获得再融资的门槛。

 

A股市场有投资释放、估值较低时候的投机价值,在基本制度改变之前大谈投资价值为时过早,除了少数上市公司外,其他公司都不配“价值”二字。至于中小投资者的利益是否得到了捍卫,看看黄光裕内幕交易案的结果就清楚了,股市是个利益场,各种力量搅做一团,绝非一家能定乾坤。

 

第三个变量是货币,货币是催生明年行情的主要动力。全球主要央行发放的货币无法真正带动实体经济发展,却能够催生投资热潮,2012年债务危机下的希腊股市大涨,印证大量货币可以抬升短期股市这一真理。

 

明年随着中国投资热再次兴起,货币发放将维持在正常偏上的水平,即广义货币在14%偏上的水平。投资、股市、债市、货币、楼市,五位一体,见证着中国货币将在稳定经济中起重要的作用,另外,越传越热的地方社保基金入市如果成真,将催生一轮大行情,社保基金将成为拯救大部分投资者的上帝。

 

最后,不可忽视的是投资手段发生了巨大变化,目前股指期货具有对冲功能,绝大多数投资机构与成熟的个体投资者摆脱了单边多空行情,转而进行对冲,导致股指上行不远。未来如果融券能够大规模落实,投资者会拿着放大镜,检视造假、内幕交易的个股,个股将再现指数震荡的现象。

 

2013年,股市在目前点位到3000点之间来回震荡,由于数据与信心好转,导致价格中枢上移。股市上行靠货币与投资,下行来自于周期性恐慌。要强调的是,股市公平基础制度的建设远未成功,市场略有上升并非股市公平的体现,而是为下一轮投资冲刺做好准备。

 

注:以为西北会很冷

做好零下三十度的准备,发现是零下十六度,意外之喜

这就是金融市场所谓的预期

做好坏的准备,得到的就是惊喜

要去看看特色之处

为什么曾经的纯朴被仇视取代?

 

俯看飞机下清澈的空气中的群山

如同地球巨大的折皱

黑白两色连绵无际,远方天际闪耀着亮黄色

深知人类渺小

感受鸠摩罗什、玄奘等先哲的不易

 

张维迎先生主张大赦

他会被唾沫星子淹死,底层与既得利益者都不会同意

看看最近的一些案例,多的想更多,少的想得到

不认为有妥协、宽容的空间

回想以往的历史

为什么不能让清廷在紫禁城成为象征

因为没有空间

一方的颟顸、贪婪与另一方的极端互相激荡

笔者同意在清算、透明、建立共同财政的基础上大赦

现在可能吗?

除了法国大革命,还应该看看中世纪英国史

        看看改良的艰辛,需要数百年的努力
站内搜索:

TAG: 股票市场 投资

引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-11-20 12:05:38
There is not at all possibilit <a href="http://www.bengalsapparelsshop.com/nick-vigil-bengals-jersey-c-12/">Nick Vigil Bengals Jersey</a> ies particular inbox but also a multi functiona <a href="http://www.bengalsapparelsshop.com/t-shirts-c-1/">Cincinnati Bengals T-Shirts</a> l master inbox as well as for catching going to be the messages from facebook, twitter DMs,Nick Vigil Bengals Jersey, SMS services. How do the number sequences wor <a href="http://www.bengalsapparelsshop.com/tyler-kroft-bengals-jersey-c-31/">Tyler Kroft Jersey</a> k with e lottery syndicatesAs an e Lottery syndicate member
引用 删除 shekplos7p   /   2017-11-18 21:04:01
<a href="http://www.cheapjerseysnflwholesalechina.us.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys Online</a> To begin with, make sure that a contractor is licen <a href="http://www.cheapjerseysnflwholesalechina.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys Store</a> sed. Most consumers learn that they are unaware of all that is necessary when being able to consider all that is required for <a href="http://www.cheapjerseysnflwholesalechina.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys Online</a>  finding a permanent and comfortable place to call home while still focusing on budget control and equity. Simply because th
引用 删除 shekplos9t   /   2017-11-18 20:51:25
Keeping horses barefoot is also a good idea. There s no reason  <a href="http://www.cheapnfljerseysboss.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys China</a> to start jogging if you hate running   you won t look forward to the activi <a href="http://www.cheapnfljerseysboss.com/">Cheap Jerseys From China</a> ty. ”A wonderful suggestions is to keep an open mind to be productive when you are mlm marketing. There is something to please everyone. You will find oneself f <a href="http://www.cheapnfljerseysboss.com/">Cheap Nike NFL Jerseys</a> ul
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-11-17 17:08:40
The recurred limbs are lightin <a href="http://www.wildhockeyauthentic.com/thomas-vanek-jersey/">Thomas Vanek Wild Jersey</a> g faster than the available compound systems.jpg" <a href="http://www.wildhockeyauthentic.com/alex-stalock-jersey/">Alex Stalock Wild Jersey</a>  alt="Godrej Prana" width="500" height="300"  >< a>Talking with the constant upward leaning in Indian belongings factory, it requires no rumor to  <a href="http://www.wildhockeyauthentic.com/matt-dumba-jersey/">Matt Dumba Wild Jersey</a> share with which of India's property markets the lenders' hope is. Such imb
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-11-17 00:58:19
You may lookup over the on line domain for articles, critique <a href="http://www.nfl49ersfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Elvis-Dumervil-Jersey/">Womens Elvis Dumervil Jersey</a> s and unbiased testimonials pertaining to <a href="http://www.nfl49ersfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Joe-Williams-Jersey/">Authentic Joe Williams Jersey</a>  the solutions of the Sydney NSW sports activities massage service. There are one man shows around who don’t charge as much, but you may have to wait longer because they usually do this on a part t <a href="http://www.nfl49ersfansclub.com/">Cheap San Francisco 49ers Jersey</a> i
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-11-16 23:54:54
If you go and buy a dry pet food or cat chow in bags,Chea <a href="http://www.nhlpanthersteamstore.com/Nick-Bjugstad-Jersey/">Cheap Nick Bjugstad Jersey</a> p Nick B <a href="http://www.nhlpanthersteamstore.com/T-Shirts/">Florida Panthers T-Shirts</a> jugstad Jersey, you'll take an eye that sure product is Pre packed in an exceedingly completely different approach from others packaging material. The benefits are the tiny courtesy car which can keep you on the <a href="http://www.nhlpanthersteamstore.com/Keith-Yandle-Jersey/">Keith Yandle Florida Panthers Jersey</a>  highway whenever your c
引用 删除 shekplos7p   /   2017-11-16 21:55:38
It also designs and manufactures <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenflnikejerseys.com/">Wholesale Jerseys</a>  light civil aircraft M 1 <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenflnikejerseys.com/">Cheap Jerseys Wholesale</a> 01T.3 Major Products and Services2 Analysis of Key Performance Indicators2. Explain the precise service you need in order for the specialists to provide an accurate and detailed quotation.1 C <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenflnikejerseys.com/">Wholesale NFL Jerseys China</a> ompany Overview1. Effective Medicinal ValueThe featu
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2017-11-16 04:23:18
The personal informatio <a href="http://www.nfl49ersfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Cj-Beathard-Jersey/">Womens C. J. Beathard Jersey</a> n of the one who filed the request has t <a href="http://www.nfl49ersfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Cj-Beathard-Jersey/">C. J. Beathard Jersey</a> o be indicated on the application form. They can handle all of the details of your weddings in south Florida, party or event. They have a stop time of 11 <a href="http://www.nfl49ersfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Reuben-Foster-Jersey/">Womens Reuben Foster Jersey</a>  P.Be aware that it requires some time and perseverance to train a puppy. If someone
引用 删除 shekplos7p   /   2017-11-15 17:54:41
Looking at the demand Wholesale Jerseys China of the wat <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseyscheapstore.com/">Wholesale Jerseys China</a> er sport, many Sports paddle manufacturers today are providing custom sized <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseyscheapstore.com/">Wholesale Cheap Jerseys Free Shipping</a>  dragon boat paddles to their customers.Spark controversy to draw people to your articles.What sets Invisalign apart is that it eliminates many of the drawbacks Wholesa <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseyscheapstore.com/">Wholesale China Jerseys</a> l
引用 删除 shekplos7p   /   2017-11-15 10:35:04
Article From  <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenflauthenticjerseys.us.com/">Wholesale Jerseys From China</a> Article Directory DatabaseDo you want to brighte <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenflauthenticjerseys.us.com/">Wholesale NFL Jerseys China</a> n up your next event and help provide the sort of memories that will last a lifetime? Do you want to create a truly incredible photo <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenflauthenticjerseys.us.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys China</a> graph, filled with something uniquely you? If so, then we have the special products you're looking for. Soc
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-11-15 03:05:09
Showcasing "right before and right after" photographs can be an helpful marke <a href="http://www.soccerbarcelonastore.com/kids-sergi-samper-barcelona-jersey/">Authentic Sergi Samper Jersey</a> ti <a href="http://www.soccerbarcelonastore.com/kids-luis-suarez-barcelona-jersey/">Luis Suarez Barcelona Jersey</a> ng technique. Acer Liquid S1 was launched in June 2013 and has seen numerous other Smartphones come and go after its launch. Tapping savings in consumption of power and water should raise business productivity,Authentic  <a href="http://www.soccerbarcelonastore.com/kids-xavi-hernandez-barcelona-jersey/">Xavi Hernandez Barcelona Jersey</a> S
引用 删除 shekplos7p   /   2017-11-15 01:56:12
Among the possible causes of interstitial cystitis areamaged bladder tissue. S <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenflnikejerseys.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys From China</a> o, if you want to make a t <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenflnikejerseys.com/">Cheap Jerseys</a> rue fashion statement for you dont do much than considering the brand Moncler.Article From Article Directory DatabaseAccording to child philosophers it is observed that elementary school educat <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenflnikejerseys.com/">Wholesale NFL Jerseys China</a> i
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-11-14 18:11:11
Your kids could then go over to a friends house to spend  <a href="http://www.jaguarsauthenticonline.com/authentic-jalen-ramsey-jaguars-jersey/">Jalen Ramsey Jaguars Jersey</a> the night.The Public Recor <a href="http://www.jaguarsauthenticonline.com/authentic-calais-campbell-jaguars-jersey/">Authentic Calais Campbell Jersey</a> ds Ombudsman is where the arrest records of California are being managed. This means all your subscribers will join your mailing list willingly and know what they are signing up for. These website <a href="http://www.jaguarsauthenticonline.com/authentic-leonard-fournette-jaguars-jersey/">Leonard Fournette Jaguars Jersey</a> s are also known as t
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-11-14 17:59:51
Anticipating the health concerns of m <a href="http://www.authenticeaglesfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Carson-Wentz-Jersey/">Womens Carson Wentz Jersey</a> ales of all age groups you must sell the best remedies to im <a href="http://www.authenticeaglesfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Brian-Dawkins-Jersey/">Authentic Brian Dawkins Jersey</a> prove the vigor, vitality and lovemaking stamina.Getting the visitors who come to your website to sign up for your mailing lists is an excellent way to build up your subscription list.To hire a suitable <a href="http://www.authenticeaglesfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Mack-Hollins-Jersey/">Authentic Mack Hollins Jersey</a>
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2017-11-14 11:32:25
It's  <a href="http://www.teamnflsaintsshop.com/AUTHENTIC-ADRIAN-PETERSON-SAINTS-JERSEY/">Authentic Adrian Peterson Jersey</a> the Reaction t <a href="http://www.teamnflsaintsshop.com/AUTHENTIC-ALVIN-KAMARA-SAINTS-JERSEY/">Alvin Kamara Jersey</a> o Synovitis.Never get in touch with your canine to you personally for any scolding. Some examples of industries that outsource telemarketing services are businesses in retail, food,Authenti <a href="http://www.teamnflsaintsshop.com/AUTHENTIC-RYAN-RAMCZYK-SAINTS-JERSEY/">Authentic Ryan Ramczyk Jersey</a> c Adrian Peterson Jersey, online publishing, healthcare, IT and real estate.In the past year
引用 删除 shekplos7p   /   2017-11-12 19:57:47
T <a href="http://www.cheapjerseysnflwholesalechina.us.com/">Wholesale NFL Jerseys</a> he member or Wholesale NFL Jerseys sacks are espec <a href="http://www.cheapjerseysnflwholesalechina.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys</a> ially vulnerable in this regard. Check in with you contractor every once in a while to determine that everything will be completed on time and to keep everything  <a href="http://www.cheapjerseysnflwholesalechina.us.com/">Cheap Wholesale Jerseys</a> on track. In addition, some sites offer a discount code that could be applied to the fo
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-11-12 08:02:36
You should also set up your list to cull itself by removing subscribers afte <a href="http://www.authenticeaglesfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Rasul-Douglas-Jersey/">Rasul Douglas Jersey</a> r a particular number of messages prompt no response or action fro <a href="http://www.authenticeaglesfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Reggie-White-Jersey/">Reggie White Eagles Jersey</a> m the recipient. It is a widespread notion that is a costly surgery which requires a lot of effort to help make sure that you are doing the right factor. Des <a href="http://www.authenticeaglesfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Mack-Hollins-Jersey/">Mack Hollins Eagles Jersey</a> i
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-11-11 07:41:28
<a href="http://www.theusasoccershop.com/Soccer-Bill-Hamid-USA-Jersey/">Bill Hamid Jersey</a> Online promo <a href="http://www.theusasoccershop.com/Soccer-Dax-Mccarty-USA-Jersey/">Dax McCarty USA Jersey</a> tion requirements serious investigation in order to succeed.Contract mobile phones programs are generally marketed through provid <a href="http://www.theusasoccershop.com/Soccer-Ethan-Horvath-USA-Jersey/">Ethan Horvath Jersey</a> ing the most recent mobile phones in the cheapest prices. A brisk walk, a swim, a yoga session or playing your favorite sport for 30 minutes every day will boo
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-11-10 05:29:30
<a href="http://www.teambelgiumshop.com/World-Cup-Nicolas-Lombaerts-Belgium-Jersey/">Nicolas Lombaerts Jersey</a> Don't wait till the final minute or you'll stress you <a href="http://www.teambelgiumshop.com/Sven-Kums-Belgium-Jersey/">Sven Kums Jersey</a> rself out.Prognostic indicators - Through studying qualities of people with and without the conditions,Nicolas Lombaerts Jersey, physicians are starting to grasp some facto <a href="http://www.teambelgiumshop.com/World-Cup-Axel-Witsel-Belgium-Jersey/">Axel Witsel Jersey</a> rs which might be related to both the affliction,Sven Kums Jersey, and its
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-11-07 02:49:42
That’s eithe <a href="http://www.teamgiantsshop.com/Youth-Brandon-Marshall-Elite-Jersey/">Brandon Marshall Giants Jersey</a> r complimented by yo <a href="http://www.teamgiantsshop.com/Youth-Mark-Bavaro-Elite-Jersey/">Womens Mark Bavaro Jersey</a> ur workers or your group members or it is not. It is better you use something people value most than what they ignore. 5. Itdevelops diff <a href="http://www.teamgiantsshop.com/Youth-Wayne-Gallman-Elite-Jersey/">Wayne Gallman Giants Jersey</a> erent musclesbunches in your body so that onespecifyas well as tonethewhole entire body. Expensive lessons don't always make a pers
 

评分:0

我来说两句

显示全部

:loveliness: :handshake :victory: :funk: :time: :kiss: :call: :hug: :lol :'( :Q :L ;P :$ :P :o :@ :D :( :)

日历

« 2017-11-21  
   1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
2627282930  

数据统计

  • 访问量: 121142
  • 日志数: 920
  • 建立时间: 2007-08-16
  • 更新时间: 2013-08-15

RSS订阅

Open Toolbar