2013年投资趋势:中西部投资、基于城镇化的轨交投资、节能环保新能源等,均是投资重点

上一篇 / 下一篇  2012-12-25 16:34:45 / 精华(3) / 置顶(1)


2012股票市场以第四季度艰难的上扬给市场信心。2013年,中国股票市场将继续震荡,价格中枢有所抬升。

 

股市的三大变量来看,第一个变量实体经济数据将有所好转。数字好转始于2012年第四季度,房地产市场回暖、基建投资上升、对来年投资的憧憬,使得银行股与部分周期性股票上升。

 

2013年将延续投资趋势,基于经济一体化的中西部投资、基于城镇化的轨交投资、基于美丽社会的节能环保新能源等,均是投资重点,另一方面,对于制造业转型的鼓励将会提升,精密仪器、大飞机、军工等投资还将增加,这也就意味着,2013年将以投资拉动经济,强有力的投资保障了宏观经济数据的好转。

 

市场并非一帆风顺,由于债务、银行不良率、利率市场化导致利润下降等综合因素的作用,银行股价高低起伏不定。与此同时,由于产能过剩顽疾未能解决,周期性股票也将时涨时落。

 

有媒体以外资购入中银股论证银行股逆转就此走出颓势。从20128月开始,QFII的确在这一期间大举抄底包括银行股在内的A股蓝筹股。中国证监会下属的投资者保护局证实,QFII今年8月份以来持续大幅增仓买入蓝筹股,今年8月以来,8月、9月、10QFII账户对沪市股票的单月净买入额分别为今年前7个月净买入总额的3倍、9倍和10倍。针对沪深300成分股中沪市股票,10QFII单月净买入额是今年前7个月净买入总额的40倍多。

 

这一现象可以解释为QFII进行价值投资,不过,不要忘记,就要部分外资小规模买入中资银行股的同时,汇丰正在出售中国平安。事实上,金融危机以后,作为中国金融机构战略投资者的外资进入了密集的羊毛收割期,瑞银于2008年的最后一天抛售了33.78亿股中行H股,美国银行200917日抛售56.2股建行H股,同日,香港李嘉诚基金配售中行20亿股股份。苏格兰皇家银行、淡马锡等机构于2007年就减持了中行、建行,目前这些金融机构从事波段操作,不再重提战略投资的往事,并且,一手做多一手做空,或者做多银行股通过指数做空,成为常见的对冲手段。在民生银行等案例上,这些手段被玩得炉火纯青,老虎亚洲基金甚至违规利用内幕交易对冲获取暴利,而受到美国证监会的严厉处罚。

 

第二个变量是估值,估值并不处于绝对最低,静态估值低不等于动态估值低。银行目前估值最低,但随着赢利下降或者温州等地、光伏等行业不良率上升,其市赢率将迅速上升。除去银行等蓝筹股,中小板、创业板估值优势并不明显。

 

根据证监会投保局的数据,截至201211月末,沪深两市平均市盈率为13.25倍,沪深300指数成分股的市盈率更在10倍左右,股息率达3.05%,而美国标普500指数成分股的市盈率则在14倍左右,股息率则为2.19%。显然,这样的计算有失公允,如果把战略投资者、大股东的获利刨除在外,中小投资者所获得的股息率将大降。更不必提,一些上市公司给予红股、现金红利就是为了获得再融资的门槛。

 

A股市场有投资释放、估值较低时候的投机价值,在基本制度改变之前大谈投资价值为时过早,除了少数上市公司外,其他公司都不配“价值”二字。至于中小投资者的利益是否得到了捍卫,看看黄光裕内幕交易案的结果就清楚了,股市是个利益场,各种力量搅做一团,绝非一家能定乾坤。

 

第三个变量是货币,货币是催生明年行情的主要动力。全球主要央行发放的货币无法真正带动实体经济发展,却能够催生投资热潮,2012年债务危机下的希腊股市大涨,印证大量货币可以抬升短期股市这一真理。

 

明年随着中国投资热再次兴起,货币发放将维持在正常偏上的水平,即广义货币在14%偏上的水平。投资、股市、债市、货币、楼市,五位一体,见证着中国货币将在稳定经济中起重要的作用,另外,越传越热的地方社保基金入市如果成真,将催生一轮大行情,社保基金将成为拯救大部分投资者的上帝。

 

最后,不可忽视的是投资手段发生了巨大变化,目前股指期货具有对冲功能,绝大多数投资机构与成熟的个体投资者摆脱了单边多空行情,转而进行对冲,导致股指上行不远。未来如果融券能够大规模落实,投资者会拿着放大镜,检视造假、内幕交易的个股,个股将再现指数震荡的现象。

 

2013年,股市在目前点位到3000点之间来回震荡,由于数据与信心好转,导致价格中枢上移。股市上行靠货币与投资,下行来自于周期性恐慌。要强调的是,股市公平基础制度的建设远未成功,市场略有上升并非股市公平的体现,而是为下一轮投资冲刺做好准备。

 

注:以为西北会很冷

做好零下三十度的准备,发现是零下十六度,意外之喜

这就是金融市场所谓的预期

做好坏的准备,得到的就是惊喜

要去看看特色之处

为什么曾经的纯朴被仇视取代?

 

俯看飞机下清澈的空气中的群山

如同地球巨大的折皱

黑白两色连绵无际,远方天际闪耀着亮黄色

深知人类渺小

感受鸠摩罗什、玄奘等先哲的不易

 

张维迎先生主张大赦

他会被唾沫星子淹死,底层与既得利益者都不会同意

看看最近的一些案例,多的想更多,少的想得到

不认为有妥协、宽容的空间

回想以往的历史

为什么不能让清廷在紫禁城成为象征

因为没有空间

一方的颟顸、贪婪与另一方的极端互相激荡

笔者同意在清算、透明、建立共同财政的基础上大赦

现在可能吗?

除了法国大革命,还应该看看中世纪英国史

        看看改良的艰辛,需要数百年的努力
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