不动产信息联网、房产税等政策出台预期明确 大规模的结构调整已经到来

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房地产重大结构调整的窗口期已经到来,随着决定性的不动产信息联网、房产税等政策出台预期明确,大规模的结构调整已经到来。

最直接的变化是,敏感资金逐渐离开房地产市场,刚需接棒房地产市场。投资性需求退潮,必然倒逼房地产价格定价机制从投资品转向消费品。

一季度房地产数据有可能给人虚假的印象,以为爆发式增长可以持续。全国商品房销售13992亿元,增长61.3%。根据中国指数研究院的数据,百城均价连续10个月上涨至近万元,环比涨幅突破1%,同比连续4个月上涨且涨幅持续扩大。根据中国房地产指数系统对100个城市的全样本调查数据显示,百城住宅均价自20126月首次止跌后连续10个月环比上涨。而央行的数据显示,房贷爆发式增长高达7103亿元,占同期各项新增贷款的27%,较去年新增2436亿元,增幅是去年同期的3倍。

 

销售的结构已经发生巨大变化,据CRIC统计数据,中档及中低档产品表现抢眼,成为市场的一大亮点。与去年一季度相比,其成交金额市场占有率分别由29%21%,上提升至36%25%,成交面积市场占有率则从去年同期的35%28%,上升至43%34%。投资需求被限制,房企主动调整,以及城镇化过程中新进城市人口的需求,成为市场中最亮眼的因素。只有北京等极少数城市,高端住宅仍然受到追捧,富裕人群一次到位的购买力,集中在这些核心城市。

 

如果刚性需求夯实房地产基础,中国房地产可以实现软着陆,民间中低收入阶层能够动用的购房资金成为衡量未来房价的基础,有可能购房热情与能力超出我们的想像。要强调的是,今年一季度尤其是三月份的数据,受到国五条个税政策的扭曲,反映了市场的恐慌性情绪,不能做为正常数据衡量,今年二季度之后的数据能够反应正常的市场走势。

 

继续大规模进军房地产市场尤其是住宅地产的投资者,将成为最后所有打压政策的接盘者。

 

一二三线城市出现明显分化。

 

虽然房地产市场库存量在下降,但城市分化明显,资源集聚城市房地产受刚性支撑,人口与资金逃离的城市,如果房地产过于激进、民间金融杠杆过长,房地产市场已经崩溃,或者存在很大的崩溃风险。

 

库存量看房地产市场向好。据上海易居房地产研究院47日发布的《3月份新建商品住宅库存报告》,截至3月底,20个城市新建商品住宅库存总量为7224万平方米,同比减少6.4%,环比减少1.5%。目前库存量创17个月新低。

 

值得注意的是,不同的城市房地产市场已经出现分化,截至3月底,一、二、三线20个城市新建商品住宅库存总量分别为264025762008万平方米,同比增长分别为-12.2%-9.0%6.9%,环比增长分别为-3.3%-1.6%1.1%。一二线城市库存下滑的趋势明显,出现了不同程度的同环比下滑态势。20个城市中,下滑最快的4个城市全部为一二线城市。而三线城市的库存上升力度较2月份略有增加。自201112月份以来,三线城市库存呈现了缓慢上升的趋势。

 

房地产市场热点城市,以往集聚于北上广深等一线城市、杭州温州等市场经济、财富集聚的热土,现在加上了各城市群中的核心城市,如武汉、成都等地。以为中国的城镇化将让地级、县级市出现一轮上涨周期的开发商,将为中国的小城镇支付开发成本,而赢利情况不佳。

 

从英国的工业化进程看,除了伦敦以外,以贸易带动的沿海城市与重要工业城市,是发展的核心城市,而巴黎与东京则是法国、日本高铁行业的受惠城市。中国同样如此,没有具有全国影响力的支柱产业,没有便捷的轨道交通的小城市,不可能成为城镇化过程中的受惠城市。

 

房地产企业继续并购整合,有项目的8万家左右项目公司不能说明问题,背后的实体大企业才是重点。

 

大者愈大、强者愈强的过程在延续。今年2013年一季度全国TOP10企业市场份额达14.88%,较2012年同期上升了0.6个百分点,而TOP20企业相较去年同期,更有1.03个百分点的上升,龙头房企从市场回暖中获益更大。

 

另据清科的数据,2013年第一季度中国并购市场共涉及交易金额316.37亿美元,同比大幅提高88.4%,环比涨幅更是高达177.0%,创下中国并购市场单季并购总额的最高记录。在完成的204起并购交易中,房地产以25起案例,总体占比12.3%的成绩再度登顶。虽然并购金额不算最高,但并购数量近两年一直处于市场热点。

 

房地产市场的结构变化如同温水煮青蛙,在锅里的青蛙不急着往外跳,锅外的青蛙羡慕锅里的温度,只有掌握火候的人才知道,总有一些青蛙会成为锅里美餐。

 

注:在博山,看企业,看博物馆

东佳钛白粉,憨厚的老总

64年进厂干到现在

国外的原材料与销售渠道

如果在国内,房地产下行,怎么办?

才知道,口香糖与化妆品也用钛粉

 

琉璃博物馆

很遗憾,传统瑰宝常沦为地摊物

如果在意大利、日本

玻璃与陶瓷生产地

干净的农庄,小资的街道,如雨后的清新

游客可以购买大师作品,可以自己吹制

心满意足携囊而回

 

看到1906年德国人建的运煤铁路

现在还在用,穿过山谷与城镇

边上是赵执信纪念馆

山墙边上,是清代以来两百多年的车辙印

青石块中间一道黑色深痕

是独轮车咿呀经过的地方

好奇问,为什么能保存至今

当地朋友笑答

利用生长在当地的石块雕成

要破坏,费的力气太大

所以今天我们才能走到历史上

倾听历史的呼吸

 

祝朋友们周末快乐

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