不动产信息联网、房产税等政策出台预期明确 大规模的结构调整已经到来

上一篇 / 下一篇  2013-04-26 14:06:27 / 精华(3) / 置顶(1)


房地产重大结构调整的窗口期已经到来,随着决定性的不动产信息联网、房产税等政策出台预期明确,大规模的结构调整已经到来。

最直接的变化是,敏感资金逐渐离开房地产市场,刚需接棒房地产市场。投资性需求退潮,必然倒逼房地产价格定价机制从投资品转向消费品。

一季度房地产数据有可能给人虚假的印象,以为爆发式增长可以持续。全国商品房销售13992亿元,增长61.3%。根据中国指数研究院的数据,百城均价连续10个月上涨至近万元,环比涨幅突破1%,同比连续4个月上涨且涨幅持续扩大。根据中国房地产指数系统对100个城市的全样本调查数据显示,百城住宅均价自20126月首次止跌后连续10个月环比上涨。而央行的数据显示,房贷爆发式增长高达7103亿元,占同期各项新增贷款的27%,较去年新增2436亿元,增幅是去年同期的3倍。

 

销售的结构已经发生巨大变化,据CRIC统计数据,中档及中低档产品表现抢眼,成为市场的一大亮点。与去年一季度相比,其成交金额市场占有率分别由29%21%,上提升至36%25%,成交面积市场占有率则从去年同期的35%28%,上升至43%34%。投资需求被限制,房企主动调整,以及城镇化过程中新进城市人口的需求,成为市场中最亮眼的因素。只有北京等极少数城市,高端住宅仍然受到追捧,富裕人群一次到位的购买力,集中在这些核心城市。

 

如果刚性需求夯实房地产基础,中国房地产可以实现软着陆,民间中低收入阶层能够动用的购房资金成为衡量未来房价的基础,有可能购房热情与能力超出我们的想像。要强调的是,今年一季度尤其是三月份的数据,受到国五条个税政策的扭曲,反映了市场的恐慌性情绪,不能做为正常数据衡量,今年二季度之后的数据能够反应正常的市场走势。

 

继续大规模进军房地产市场尤其是住宅地产的投资者,将成为最后所有打压政策的接盘者。

 

一二三线城市出现明显分化。

 

虽然房地产市场库存量在下降,但城市分化明显,资源集聚城市房地产受刚性支撑,人口与资金逃离的城市,如果房地产过于激进、民间金融杠杆过长,房地产市场已经崩溃,或者存在很大的崩溃风险。

 

库存量看房地产市场向好。据上海易居房地产研究院47日发布的《3月份新建商品住宅库存报告》,截至3月底,20个城市新建商品住宅库存总量为7224万平方米,同比减少6.4%,环比减少1.5%。目前库存量创17个月新低。

 

值得注意的是,不同的城市房地产市场已经出现分化,截至3月底,一、二、三线20个城市新建商品住宅库存总量分别为264025762008万平方米,同比增长分别为-12.2%-9.0%6.9%,环比增长分别为-3.3%-1.6%1.1%。一二线城市库存下滑的趋势明显,出现了不同程度的同环比下滑态势。20个城市中,下滑最快的4个城市全部为一二线城市。而三线城市的库存上升力度较2月份略有增加。自201112月份以来,三线城市库存呈现了缓慢上升的趋势。

 

房地产市场热点城市,以往集聚于北上广深等一线城市、杭州温州等市场经济、财富集聚的热土,现在加上了各城市群中的核心城市,如武汉、成都等地。以为中国的城镇化将让地级、县级市出现一轮上涨周期的开发商,将为中国的小城镇支付开发成本,而赢利情况不佳。

 

从英国的工业化进程看,除了伦敦以外,以贸易带动的沿海城市与重要工业城市,是发展的核心城市,而巴黎与东京则是法国、日本高铁行业的受惠城市。中国同样如此,没有具有全国影响力的支柱产业,没有便捷的轨道交通的小城市,不可能成为城镇化过程中的受惠城市。

 

房地产企业继续并购整合,有项目的8万家左右项目公司不能说明问题,背后的实体大企业才是重点。

 

大者愈大、强者愈强的过程在延续。今年2013年一季度全国TOP10企业市场份额达14.88%,较2012年同期上升了0.6个百分点,而TOP20企业相较去年同期,更有1.03个百分点的上升,龙头房企从市场回暖中获益更大。

 

另据清科的数据,2013年第一季度中国并购市场共涉及交易金额316.37亿美元,同比大幅提高88.4%,环比涨幅更是高达177.0%,创下中国并购市场单季并购总额的最高记录。在完成的204起并购交易中,房地产以25起案例,总体占比12.3%的成绩再度登顶。虽然并购金额不算最高,但并购数量近两年一直处于市场热点。

 

房地产市场的结构变化如同温水煮青蛙,在锅里的青蛙不急着往外跳,锅外的青蛙羡慕锅里的温度,只有掌握火候的人才知道,总有一些青蛙会成为锅里美餐。

 

注:在博山,看企业,看博物馆

东佳钛白粉,憨厚的老总

64年进厂干到现在

国外的原材料与销售渠道

如果在国内,房地产下行,怎么办?

才知道,口香糖与化妆品也用钛粉

 

琉璃博物馆

很遗憾,传统瑰宝常沦为地摊物

如果在意大利、日本

玻璃与陶瓷生产地

干净的农庄,小资的街道,如雨后的清新

游客可以购买大师作品,可以自己吹制

心满意足携囊而回

 

看到1906年德国人建的运煤铁路

现在还在用,穿过山谷与城镇

边上是赵执信纪念馆

山墙边上,是清代以来两百多年的车辙印

青石块中间一道黑色深痕

是独轮车咿呀经过的地方

好奇问,为什么能保存至今

当地朋友笑答

利用生长在当地的石块雕成

要破坏,费的力气太大

所以今天我们才能走到历史上

倾听历史的呼吸

 

祝朋友们周末快乐

站内搜索:

TAG: 窗口期 结构 决定性

引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-20 18:44:25
allies are a f <a href="http://www.nflteameaglesshop.com/brian-dawkins-jersey/">Womens Brian Dawkins Jersey</a> actor driving the increased cooperation,Womens Brian Dawkins Jers <a href="http://www.nflteameaglesshop.com/zach-ertz-jersey/">Zach Ertz Eagles Jersey</a> ey, as is China's rise as a military power,Zach Ertz Eagles Jersey, Glosserman said.The euro, meanwhile, fetched 1. Air Force, Japan Air SelfDefense  <a href="http://www.nflteameaglesshop.com/isaac-seumalo-jersey/">Isaac Seumalo Authentic Jersey</a> Force airmen waving at residents of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mar
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-20 18:16:36
S. (Tech."Lee,Womens Deion Jones Jersey, also a threetime  <a href="http://www.officialfalconsgearnfl.com/deion-jones-jersey/">Womens Deion Jones Jersey</a> Olympic silver medalist, started this season with his fourth win in All England <a href="http://www.officialfalconsgearnfl.com/keanu-neal-jersey/">Keanu Neal Falcons Jersey</a>  Open but lost to arch rival Lin Dan of China for two consecutive tournaments,Keanu Neal Falcons Jersey, the first in the final of Malaysia Open, and the second i <a href="http://www.officialfalconsgearnfl.com/vic-beasley-jersey/">Vic Beasley Jr Falcons Jersey</a> n
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-20 15:23:41
The quality and the price of the products of ledrey products are unique and  <a href="http://www.nflbearsgearofficial.com/cody-whitehair-jersey/">Cody Whitehair Bears Jersey</a> special.3 percent year on year i <a href="http://www.nflbearsgearofficial.com/tarik-cohen-jersey/">Tarik Cohen Jersey</a> n the first two months, compared with the 6percent increase for December of 2016, official data showed Tuesday.In this Dec. “In a newly released negotiations, the labor is split straight into <a href="http://www.nflbearsgearofficial.com/jonathan-bullard-jersey/">Jonathan Bullard Authentic Jersey</a>
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-20 12:04:22
(Staff Sgt. It is suggested to practice exerci <a href="http://www.authenticjaguarsnflstore.com/jaguars-calais-campbell-jersey/">Calais Campbell Jaguars Jersey</a> ses <a href="http://www.authenticjaguarsnflstore.com/myles-jack-jersey/">Myles Jack Jaguars Jersey</a>  regularly. Yes, we are talking about the focos led which is actually a chrome plated item.S. media reports,Calais Campbell Jaguars Jersey, both parties you cannot find any specific negotia <a href="http://www.authenticjaguarsnflstore.com/">Cheap Jaguars Jersey</a> tions to determine the when. It cleanses your gallbladder and
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-20 11:25:51
As a <a href="http://www.nflsaintsteamofficial.com/p-j-williams-jersey/">.J. Williams Jersey</a>  res <a href="http://www.nflsaintsteamofficial.com/marshon-lattimore-jersey/">Marshon Lattimore Jersey</a> ult it draws interest and interest among people who search for thrills and excitement from your draw of just about every card. This herbal supplement is recommended t <a href="http://www.nflsaintsteamofficial.com/marshon-lattimore-jersey/">Marshon Lattimore Saints Jersey</a> o eliminate gallstones and prevent problems such as pancreatitis and cholecystitis.3747 yen in New York and 108.In this Dec. P
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2018-06-20 08:17:38
Av <a href="http://www.officialfalconsgearnfl.com/deion-jones-jersey/">Womens Deion Jones Jersey</a> oid acidi <a href="http://www.officialfalconsgearnfl.com/deion-jones-jersey/">Deion Jones Jersey</a> c,Womens Deion Jones Jersey, pungent and salty foods. Air Force via AP.In this test, U. Kali Musali offers effective cure for jaundice.S.T <a href="http://www.officialfalconsgearnfl.com/tevin-coleman-jersey/">Womens Tevin Coleman Jersey</a> he 6."In 1989, chronic liver disease,Deion Jones Jersey,* including cirrhosis, was the ninth mostfrequent cause of death in the United States (1). doll
引用 删除 shekplos9t   /   2018-06-19 20:03:57
Since you a <a href="http://www.cheapnikenfljerseyschina.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys Wholesale</a> re being provided so many privilege here, it is beyond doubt  <a href="http://www.cheapnikenfljerseyschina.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys From China</a> that these genuine jerseys would cost less.Construction began Cheap Jerseys Wholesale in June on a massive museum located at the site of ruins <a href="http://www.cheapnikenfljerseyschina.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys China Free Shipping</a>  from the Xia Dynasty (2070-1600 BC), with the aim of recreating scenes from more than
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-19 17:25:09
Although a table tennis robot can readily im <a href="http://www.nflsaintsteamofficial.com/andrus-peat-jersey/">Andrus Peat Saints Jersey</a> prove one's game,Andrus Peat Saints Jersey, <a href="http://www.nflsaintsteamofficial.com/p-j-williams-jersey/">.J. Williams Authentic Jersey</a>  it is no substitute for live play against an opponent. 22,P.J. Williams Authentic Jersey, 2017. flaming mindset from the fireplace regularly rises welltimed evolution helpful the We ar <a href="http://www.nflsaintsteamofficial.com/marcus-williams-jersey/">Marcus Williams Authentic Jersey</a> e avowal of receiving a larg
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-19 10:17:38
The U. You need to focus on the next match instead  <a href="http://www.authenticcoltsnflstore.com/malik-hooker-jersey/">Malik Hooker Colts Jersey</a> of the semif <a href="http://www.authenticcoltsnflstore.com/phillip-dorsett-jersey/">hillip Dorsett Colts Jersey</a> inal or the final matches.The advantages you will get to purchase the products from here are the online services. Cultural diversity? Mexico vacations offer you no less than a <a href="http://www.authenticcoltsnflstore.com/t-y-hilton-jersey/">T.Y. Hilton Colts Jersey</a>  millennial culture of Olmecan tribe (the first civilization t
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-19 06:58:55
These models will also function MyFord touch t <a href="http://www.eaglesstoreonline.com/Black-28-Wendell-Smallwood-Womens-Jersey/">Wendell Smallwood Eagles Jersey</a> hat is an eightinch touch screen that en <a href="http://www.eaglesstoreonline.com/Black-58-Jordan-Hicks-Womens-Jersey/">Jordan Hicks Jersey</a> ables you to control entertainment,Wendell Smallwood Eagles Jersey, communication and navigation at your fingertips, a number of of these characteristics are also obtainable towards the driver direct from the stee <a href="http://www.eaglesstoreonline.com/Black-17-Nelson-Agholor-Womens-Jersey/">Black Nelson Agholor Jersey</a> r
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-18 20:51:05
(goahead fireplaces repeatedly don't produce enough grand warmth to occasion <a href="http://www.comprartenissapatos.com/nike-free-run-flyknit/nike-free-3-0-flyknit.html">nike free 3.0 flyknit feminino</a>  temperature problem <a href="http://www.comprartenissapatos.com/nike-air-max-97.html">nike air max 97 masculino</a> s). A net measuring 6 inches high divides the table into two halves and extends over each edge of the table by 6 inches. labor market was "far from complete,nike free 3.0 flyknit feminino," underscoring  <a href="http://www.comprartenissapatos.com/nike-free-feminino/nike-free-5-39.html">nike free run 5.0 feminino</a> t
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2018-06-18 11:06:27
<a href="http://www.superstar-supercolor.it/adidas-superstar-supercolor/adidas-supercolor-gialle.html">adidas superstar supercolor gialle</a> Many islands are tiny. Australian, Japanese and  <a href="http://www.superstar-supercolor.it/adidas-boost-scarpe/adidas-ultra-boost.html">adidas ultra boost nere</a> U. You should avoid intake of junk foods.In this test, U. and China have disagreed at times,adidas superstar supercolor gialle, for example, on matters like which waters U.05 yen.UAE Minister of State for Foreign Aff <a href="http://www.superstar-supercolor.it/adidas-zx-750/adidas-zx-750-blu.html">adidas zx 750 blu</a> airs Anwar bin Mohammed Gargash on S
引用 删除 shekplos9t   /   2018-06-18 02:30:52
But the Obama admin <a href="http://www.wholesalefootballnfljerseys.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys China Wholesale</a> istration's aggressive antileak effo <a href="http://www.wholesalefootballnfljerseys.us.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys</a> rts triggered a firestorm of criticism last year after disclosures that, in pursuing tCustomized apparel are in demand today.The athletes laid siege on their  <a href="http://www.wholesalefootballnfljerseys.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys</a> Athletics Kenya Cheap Jerseys China Wholesale (AK) headquarters for better part of the
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-18 02:06:37
The packages will support 20,John John <a href="http://www.ramsstoreonline.com/Black-43-John-Johnson-Womens-Jersey/">John Johnson Jersey</a> son Jersey,000 people across 56 islands in Micr <a href="http://www.ramsstoreonline.com/Black-99-Aaron-Donald-Womens-Jersey/">Aaron Donald Womens Jersey</a> onesia,Aaron Donald Womens Jersey, the Mariana Islands and Palau.S. Typically, the forehand side of a paddle is the attacking side, and the rubber used here creates a lot of spin.6 percen <a href="http://www.ramsstoreonline.com/Black-68-Jamon-Brown-Womens-Jersey/">Black Jamon Brown Jersey</a> t, is near the 6.The Fed tri
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-18 01:14:07
In Las Vegas and Atlantic Metropolis, two of the largest casino centers, Baccar <a href="http://www.cheapuarmourireland.com/under-armour-training-shoes/ua-speedform-phenom.html">under armour scorpio ireland</a> at is played in spe <a href="http://www.cheapuarmourireland.com/ua-stephen-curry-one.html">stephen curry 1 shoes ireland</a> cific rooms on an a variety of stage from other video game people. Beaches? Mexico has plenty of those.S.Regular use of this herbal pill relieves you from pain caused due to gallstones."Chen's next opp <a href="http://www.cheapuarmourireland.com/ua-stephen-curry-three/stephen-curry-3-mid.html">stephen curry 3 shoes mid ireland</a> o
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2018-06-17 21:00:25
My very own interests really are in direction of  <a href="http://www.officialfalconsgearnfl.com/vic-beasley-jersey/">Vic Beasley Jr Falcons Jersey</a> gambling in general and then in specific casinos online.In the public  <a href="http://www.officialfalconsgearnfl.com/matt-ryan-jersey/">Womens Matt Ryan Jersey</a> debut in her new role,Vic Beasley Jr Falcons Jersey, Yellen said while the economy gained steam at the end of 2013, recovery in the U. In casino video games, the casino often banks <a href="http://www.officialfalconsgearnfl.com/t-shirts/">Atlanta Falcons T-Shirts</a>
引用 删除 shekplos9t   /   2018-06-17 19:10:33
As a result of sanctions, the Wholesa <a href="http://www.cheapoutletjerseys.us.com/">Wholesale Jerseys Free Shipping</a> le Jerseys Free Shipping six companies' U. local time, the queues h <a href="http://www.cheapoutletjerseys.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys Free Shipping</a> ad evaporated, and only a trickle of voters was making its way Cheap Jerseys Free Shipping into the stations. It is a chance you should grab especially with all of the benefits <a href="http://www.cheapoutletjerseys.us.com/">Wholesale NFL Jerseys Free Shipping</a>  embroidered dress s
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-17 13:37:23
They are available in dif <a href="http://www.thejetsstoreonline.com/Black-26-Marcus-Maye-Womens-Jersey/">Marcus Maye Jets Jersey</a> ferent colors and sizes and shapes that attract <a href="http://www.thejetsstoreonline.com/Black-64-Leonard-Williams-Womens-Jersey/">Leonard Williams Jets Jersey</a>  the attention of the people who are interested in buying the focos led. This powerful engine also functions Twin independent Variable Cam Driving which will adjust to give a  <a href="http://www.thejetsstoreonline.com/Black-18-Ardarius-Stewart-Womens-Jersey/">ArDarius Stewart Jersey</a> far more efficient efficiency at lower RPM and will g
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2018-06-17 13:31:47
' The sport of table tennis is governed by the I <a href="http://www.airmaxschweizoutlet-ch.com/herren-nike-air-max-90-woven-phantom-weiss-833129-002.html">Herren Nike Air Max 90 Woven Phantom Wei? Schweiz</a> nternatio <a href="http://www.airmaxschweizoutlet-ch.com/">nike air max schweiz günstig</a> nal Table Tennis Federation (ITTF).' The sport of table tennis is governed by the International Table Tennis Federation (ITTF).S.Twice defending champion and Olympic gold medalist Chen Long of China sailed to the second round with a 217, 2119 <a href="http://www.airmaxschweizoutlet-ch.com/damen-nike-air-max-plus-tn-ultra-schuhe-weiss-rosa-830768-552.html">Damen Nike Air Max Plus TN Ultra Schuhe Wei? Rosa Schweiz</a>
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-17 10:34:40
These herbs are effect <a href="http://www.authenticchiefsnflstore.com/travis-kelce-jersey/">Womens Travis Kelce Jersey</a> ive and not only dissolve stones painlessly; they also remove root <a href="http://www.authenticchiefsnflstore.com/">Cheap Chiefs Jersey</a>  causes of stone formation naturally and safely. wants to break out of "hub and spoke" system of bilateral alliances it has with  <a href="http://www.authenticchiefsnflstore.com/alex-smith-jersey/">Alex Smith Jersey</a> five Asian countries and link multiple allies together, he said. Typically ranging
 

评分:0

我来说两句

显示全部

:loveliness: :handshake :victory: :funk: :time: :kiss: :call: :hug: :lol :'( :Q :L ;P :$ :P :o :@ :D :( :)

日历

« 2018-06-20  
     12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930

数据统计

  • 访问量: 121142
  • 日志数: 920
  • 建立时间: 2007-08-16
  • 更新时间: 2013-08-15

RSS订阅

Open Toolbar