不动产信息联网、房产税等政策出台预期明确 大规模的结构调整已经到来

上一篇 / 下一篇  2013-04-26 14:06:27 / 精华(3) / 置顶(1)


房地产重大结构调整的窗口期已经到来,随着决定性的不动产信息联网、房产税等政策出台预期明确,大规模的结构调整已经到来。

最直接的变化是,敏感资金逐渐离开房地产市场,刚需接棒房地产市场。投资性需求退潮,必然倒逼房地产价格定价机制从投资品转向消费品。

一季度房地产数据有可能给人虚假的印象,以为爆发式增长可以持续。全国商品房销售13992亿元,增长61.3%。根据中国指数研究院的数据,百城均价连续10个月上涨至近万元,环比涨幅突破1%,同比连续4个月上涨且涨幅持续扩大。根据中国房地产指数系统对100个城市的全样本调查数据显示,百城住宅均价自20126月首次止跌后连续10个月环比上涨。而央行的数据显示,房贷爆发式增长高达7103亿元,占同期各项新增贷款的27%,较去年新增2436亿元,增幅是去年同期的3倍。

 

销售的结构已经发生巨大变化,据CRIC统计数据,中档及中低档产品表现抢眼,成为市场的一大亮点。与去年一季度相比,其成交金额市场占有率分别由29%21%,上提升至36%25%,成交面积市场占有率则从去年同期的35%28%,上升至43%34%。投资需求被限制,房企主动调整,以及城镇化过程中新进城市人口的需求,成为市场中最亮眼的因素。只有北京等极少数城市,高端住宅仍然受到追捧,富裕人群一次到位的购买力,集中在这些核心城市。

 

如果刚性需求夯实房地产基础,中国房地产可以实现软着陆,民间中低收入阶层能够动用的购房资金成为衡量未来房价的基础,有可能购房热情与能力超出我们的想像。要强调的是,今年一季度尤其是三月份的数据,受到国五条个税政策的扭曲,反映了市场的恐慌性情绪,不能做为正常数据衡量,今年二季度之后的数据能够反应正常的市场走势。

 

继续大规模进军房地产市场尤其是住宅地产的投资者,将成为最后所有打压政策的接盘者。

 

一二三线城市出现明显分化。

 

虽然房地产市场库存量在下降,但城市分化明显,资源集聚城市房地产受刚性支撑,人口与资金逃离的城市,如果房地产过于激进、民间金融杠杆过长,房地产市场已经崩溃,或者存在很大的崩溃风险。

 

库存量看房地产市场向好。据上海易居房地产研究院47日发布的《3月份新建商品住宅库存报告》,截至3月底,20个城市新建商品住宅库存总量为7224万平方米,同比减少6.4%,环比减少1.5%。目前库存量创17个月新低。

 

值得注意的是,不同的城市房地产市场已经出现分化,截至3月底,一、二、三线20个城市新建商品住宅库存总量分别为264025762008万平方米,同比增长分别为-12.2%-9.0%6.9%,环比增长分别为-3.3%-1.6%1.1%。一二线城市库存下滑的趋势明显,出现了不同程度的同环比下滑态势。20个城市中,下滑最快的4个城市全部为一二线城市。而三线城市的库存上升力度较2月份略有增加。自201112月份以来,三线城市库存呈现了缓慢上升的趋势。

 

房地产市场热点城市,以往集聚于北上广深等一线城市、杭州温州等市场经济、财富集聚的热土,现在加上了各城市群中的核心城市,如武汉、成都等地。以为中国的城镇化将让地级、县级市出现一轮上涨周期的开发商,将为中国的小城镇支付开发成本,而赢利情况不佳。

 

从英国的工业化进程看,除了伦敦以外,以贸易带动的沿海城市与重要工业城市,是发展的核心城市,而巴黎与东京则是法国、日本高铁行业的受惠城市。中国同样如此,没有具有全国影响力的支柱产业,没有便捷的轨道交通的小城市,不可能成为城镇化过程中的受惠城市。

 

房地产企业继续并购整合,有项目的8万家左右项目公司不能说明问题,背后的实体大企业才是重点。

 

大者愈大、强者愈强的过程在延续。今年2013年一季度全国TOP10企业市场份额达14.88%,较2012年同期上升了0.6个百分点,而TOP20企业相较去年同期,更有1.03个百分点的上升,龙头房企从市场回暖中获益更大。

 

另据清科的数据,2013年第一季度中国并购市场共涉及交易金额316.37亿美元,同比大幅提高88.4%,环比涨幅更是高达177.0%,创下中国并购市场单季并购总额的最高记录。在完成的204起并购交易中,房地产以25起案例,总体占比12.3%的成绩再度登顶。虽然并购金额不算最高,但并购数量近两年一直处于市场热点。

 

房地产市场的结构变化如同温水煮青蛙,在锅里的青蛙不急着往外跳,锅外的青蛙羡慕锅里的温度,只有掌握火候的人才知道,总有一些青蛙会成为锅里美餐。

 

注:在博山,看企业,看博物馆

东佳钛白粉,憨厚的老总

64年进厂干到现在

国外的原材料与销售渠道

如果在国内,房地产下行,怎么办?

才知道,口香糖与化妆品也用钛粉

 

琉璃博物馆

很遗憾,传统瑰宝常沦为地摊物

如果在意大利、日本

玻璃与陶瓷生产地

干净的农庄,小资的街道,如雨后的清新

游客可以购买大师作品,可以自己吹制

心满意足携囊而回

 

看到1906年德国人建的运煤铁路

现在还在用,穿过山谷与城镇

边上是赵执信纪念馆

山墙边上,是清代以来两百多年的车辙印

青石块中间一道黑色深痕

是独轮车咿呀经过的地方

好奇问,为什么能保存至今

当地朋友笑答

利用生长在当地的石块雕成

要破坏,费的力气太大

所以今天我们才能走到历史上

倾听历史的呼吸

 

祝朋友们周末快乐

站内搜索:

TAG: 窗口期 结构 决定性

引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-12-16 13:40:34
Related Articles:,LeSean McCoy JerseyNo Related PostsBromelain Enzyme a <a href="http://www.thebillsshoponline.com/Youth-LeSean-McCoy-Bills-Jersey/">LeSean McCoy Jersey</a> nd the  <a href="http://www.thebillsshoponline.com/John-Miller-Bills-Jersey/">Bills John Miller Jersey</a> natural hair care Bromelain is one of several compounds known as proteolytic enzymes, all of which aid in the digestion of protein.The facilities are nothing when the students are not striving hard as much as they c <a href="http://www.thebillsshoponline.com/Customized/">Customized Bills Jersey</a> an. The
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-12-16 08:52:54
There are a lot of benefits to these video game players. The  <a href="http://www.teamchiefsstore.com/c-19-chiefs-mitch-morse-jersey.aspx">Mitch Morse Chiefs Jersey</a> water in these flasks is kept at boiling water for long <a href="http://www.teamchiefsstore.com/">Authentic Chiefs Jersey</a>  periods of time. Spending sufficient hours of learning and training will make you more competitive than the usual. The electrical power requiredto warmth the electron far less than t <a href="http://www.teamchiefsstore.com/c-10-chiefs-marcus-peters-jersey.aspx">Cheap Marcus Peters Jersey</a> h
引用 删除 shekplos9t   /   2017-12-16 05:58:38
I was not going to simply accept having a stutter for the remainder of my life  <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenflauthenticjerseys.us.com/">Wholesale Jerseys From China</a> till I had worked onerous to eradicate it.The idea  <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenflauthenticjerseys.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys Free Shipping</a> of online education was scoffed at not many years ago. It also promotes sound Wholesale Jerseys From China sleep. Most extreme quantities of students sit for the examina <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenflauthenticjerseys.us.com/">Wholesale Jerseys</a> t
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-12-15 17:24:55
The Iberostar Grand Hotel Bavaro totally tries to assume of all sorts of <a href="http://www.shoptheofficialbears.com/Elite-Eddie-Jackson-Bears-Jersey/">Eddie Jackson Bears Jersey</a>  things  <a href="http://www.shoptheofficialbears.com/Elite-Mitchell-Trubisky-Bears-Jersey/">Mitchell Trubisky Womens Jersey</a> so that you can like your stay at a single of the most impressive Punta Cana all-inclusive getaway resorts!If you appearance again as a result of pages of history,Eddie Jackson Bears Jersey, you will track down a declar <a href="http://www.shoptheofficialbears.com/Elite-Mitchell-Trubisky-Bears-Jersey/">Orange Mitchell Trubisky Jersey</a> i
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2017-12-15 10:33:59
It has to be a  <a href="http://www.cardinalsapparelsshop.com/david-johnson-cardinals-jersey-c-33/">David Johnson Cardinals Jersey</a> natural progression that takes time. Please look at http:mcafeeprom <a href="http://www.cardinalsapparelsshop.com/pat-tillman-cardinals-jersey-c-20/">at Tillman Jersey</a> ocodes. Hopefully you have gleaned some good information and advice from the tips shared in this article. However,David Johnson Cardinals Jersey, you must be prepared to pay around $ 500 for these sorts of <a href="http://www.cardinalsapparelsshop.com/david-johnson-cardinals-jersey-c-33/">David Johnson Jersey</a>  clubs, becau
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-12-15 06:17:46
It won’t take a fortune, but it will still be a significant amoun <a href="http://www.titansapparelsshop.com/logan-ryan-titans-jersey-c-56/">Logan Ryan Jersey</a> t if you want to start your own f <a href="http://www.titansapparelsshop.com/t-shirts-c-1/">Tennessee Titans T-Shirts</a> amily restaurant. The licensing qualification in England and Wales is called as Award of Personal License Holders (APLH). While 0 depicts flat trading,Logan Ryan Jersey, 100 shows  <a href="http://www.titansapparelsshop.com/demarco-murray-titans-jersey-c-42/">DeMarco Murray Jersey</a> either a rising or fal
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-12-15 02:01:35
The way out o <a href="http://www.hockeyflyersshop.com/Bernie-Parent-Jersey/">Bernie Parent Jersey</a> f this difficulty is standardizing,Bernie Parent Jersey, which <a href="http://www.hockeyflyersshop.com/Chris-Conner-Jersey/">Chris Conner Jersey</a>  transforms every normal distribution into one particular normal distribution, the standard normal distribution. It is a movie it is possible to share the experience of watching to <a href="http://www.hockeyflyersshop.com/Eric-Lindros-Jersey/">Eric Lindros Jersey</a> gether with your friends and family. These fe
引用 删除 shekplos9t   /   2017-12-15 01:25:27
local authorities <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenfljerseysshop.us.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys</a> , in safeguarding the welfare of  <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenfljerseysshop.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys From China</a> a child in relation to providing adequate information, parent/s, regulation, inspection, etc.Your Age.  <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenfljerseysshop.us.com/">Cheap China Jerseys</a> There are various circumstances for single dads, some have never married, others are divorced, some may be gay fathers and widowed fathers as well
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2017-12-14 19:09:57
The actual inhaling and exhaling therapy w <a href="http://www.authenticchiefsnflstore.com/spencer-ware-jersey/">Spencer Ware Chiefs Jersey</a> ith yoga exercise classes cause you to  <a href="http://www.authenticchiefsnflstore.com/justin-houston-jersey/">Justin Houston Jersey</a> more calm and much more comfy during sleep.Truly, the high resolution of this film can make it to be interesting to watch because it has 720p DH quali <a href="http://www.authenticchiefsnflstore.com/marcus-peters-jersey/">Marcus Peters Chiefs Jersey</a> ty that is 1280 by 720 pixels. The process is so detailed that there
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-12-14 15:01:13
So it would be a capital mistake to undermine their assessment skills in <a href="http://www.authoritytexansshop.com/deandre-hopkins-texans-jersey-c-22/">DeAndre Hopkins Texans Jersey</a>  soccer exercises. Placing an order online <a href="http://www.authoritytexansshop.com/hoodie-c-2/">Houston Texans Hoodie</a>  is easy as all you need to do is to browse their site for the flowers you will like to send to Jaipur and then pay online to get your order delivered at the right place and also at the <a href="http://www.authoritytexansshop.com/jj-watt-texans-jersey-c-10/">J.J. Watt Texans Jersey</a>
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-12-14 11:58:53
Navigation is sensible and easier, make s <a href="http://www.ravensapparelsshop.com/jonathan-ogden-ravens-jersey-c-12/">Jonathan Ogden Jersey</a> ure that the trail is easily visible at the top of the page <a href="http://www.ravensapparelsshop.com/kamalei-correa-ravens-jersey-c-43/">Kamalei Correa Jersey</a> .All the activities conducted by the body would be adapted to the BMR which would further determine the amount of calories burnt. It also improves sex drive <a href="http://www.ravensapparelsshop.com/ray-lewis-ravens-jersey-c-26/">Ray Lewis Ravens Jersey</a> ,Jonathan Ogden Jersey, energy levels and st
引用 删除 shekplos9t   /   2017-12-14 11:42:01
I've to accept sure sacrifices; resembling to eat much less fatty foods  <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenflauthenticjerseys.us.com/">Wholesale Jerseys From China</a> and be disciplined to achieve m <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenflauthenticjerseys.us.com/">Wholesale NFL Jerseys</a> y target weight, nevertheless lengthy it'd Wholesale Jerseys From China take.To eat well you must lessen your fat content. You'll be able to look away for a second, Wholesale N <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenflauthenticjerseys.us.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys China Wholesale</a> FL Jerseys but starin
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-12-14 05:32:05
Likewise, if someone does not take 500 calories, the pers <a href="http://www.footballbearsshop.com/eddie-goldman-bears-jersey-c-20/">Eddie Goldman Bears Jersey</a> on would lose one pound. Nevertheless,Eddie Goldman Bears Jersey, inside of <a href="http://www.footballbearsshop.com/john-jenkins-bears-jersey-c-80/">John Jenkins Jersey</a>  innumerable situations, computer software safety is taken care of as an increase upon towards extant application and not as an essential aspect of the advancement cou <a href="http://www.footballbearsshop.com/mike-glennon-bears-jersey-c-61/">Mike Glennon Jersey</a> r
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-12-14 03:00:08
The more the number of calori <a href="http://www.titansapparelsshop.com/marcus-mariota-titans-jersey-c-6/">Marcus Mariota Jersey</a> es required maintaining the body in  <a href="http://www.titansapparelsshop.com/jonnu-smith-titans-jersey-c-55/">Jonnu Smith Jersey</a> its present state, the more would be body weight. The generic wooden tee will always be pointed on one end and it will have a little bowl shaped re <a href="http://www.titansapparelsshop.com/demarco-murray-titans-jersey-c-42/">DeMarco Murray Titans Jersey</a> sting spot at the opposite end, making it easy to recognize. They will often be able to
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2017-12-13 19:33:18
For others it is the lifestyle and w <a href="http://www.ravensapparelsshop.com/ronnie-stanley-ravens-jersey-c-28/">Ronnie Stanley Ravens Jersey</a> orking habits would determine the number of calories that would be neede <a href="http://www.ravensapparelsshop.com/carl-davis-ravens-jersey-c-45/">Carl Davis Jersey</a> d by the body.The best way to lose weight is by reducing the number of calories one would consume while increasing the total number of calories one would burn th <a href="http://www.ravensapparelsshop.com/bronson-kaufusi-ravens-jersey-c-42/">Bronson Kaufusi Ravens Jersey</a> rough the physical activity. Ap
引用 删除 shekplos7p   /   2017-12-13 05:04:45
Leave the paste in your mouth as lon <a href="http://www.wholesalejerseyscheapnfl.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys China</a> g as you can. Within this scenario your self  <a href="http://www.wholesalejerseyscheapnfl.us.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys</a> really should decide for a 3rd bash tactic (this kind of as the Best Uninstaller for instance) and worst circumstance condition seek the services of knowl <a href="http://www.wholesalejerseyscheapnfl.us.com/">Wholesale NFL Jerseys Online</a> edgeable guidance. Nevertheless, as you are well aware, it is rea
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2017-12-13 04:19:47
The get together bus usually comes w <a href="http://www.hockeycanucksteamstore.com/henrik-sedin-jersey/">Henrik Sedin Jersey</a> ith a dance pole and host who provide <a href="http://www.hockeycanucksteamstore.com/sven-baertschi-jersey/">Sven Baertschi Canucks Jersey</a> s service to the people onboard.Searching for ways to gain your knowledge regarding the tips presented above? Just submit buy adult traffic when searching online. Apamarga balances vata and <a href="http://www.hockeycanucksteamstore.com/bo-horvat-jersey/">Bo Horvat Jersey</a>  kapha doshas. Write one out,Henrik Se
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-12-13 03:28:51
The potent herbs of this particular capsule <a href="http://www.authenticchiefsnflstore.com/travis-kelce-jersey/">Travis Kelce Jersey</a>  have the eff <a href="http://www.authenticchiefsnflstore.com/steven-nelson-jersey/">Steven Nelson Chiefs Jersey</a> icacy to strengthen the parasympathetic nerves which are mainly responsible for the night emission problem.A properly shock absorbing along with well-built rugged tablet PC needs  <a href="http://www.authenticchiefsnflstore.com/alex-smith-jersey/">Alex Smith Chiefs Jersey</a> to have the ability to withstand shock from several metres high;
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2017-12-12 19:49:17
Everyone wants to have efficient, functional and most important they  <a href="http://www.nfleaglesofficialauthentic.com/randall-cunningham-jersey/">Randall Cunningham Jersey</a> want cost effective bed for their bedroom.Having some sort of handy listing <a href="http://www.nfleaglesofficialauthentic.com/fletcher-cox-jersey/">Fletcher Cox Eagles Jersey</a>  of rental services is really a good thing. Visit Christmas Gift Ideas for Men or Christmas Gift Ideas for more. The venue selected should not be too littl <a href="http://www.nfleaglesofficialauthentic.com/alshon-jeffery-eagles-jersey/">Alshon Jeffery Jersey</a> e
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2017-12-12 12:56:52
But with a nationwide network of reputed florists and flower cultivator <a href="http://www.ravensapparelsshop.com/hats-c-3/">Baltimore Ravens Hats</a> s they have made that possible too and are capable of delivering any flower with <a href="http://www.ravensapparelsshop.com/eric-weddle-ravens-jersey-c-9/">Eric Weddle Jersey</a> in a maximum period of 24 hours. Make sure that your domain name is relevant and that your content is organized well. Apart from an astonishing vari <a href="http://www.ravensapparelsshop.com/eric-weddle-ravens-jersey-c-9/">Eric Weddle Ravens Jersey</a> e
 

评分:0

我来说两句

显示全部

:loveliness: :handshake :victory: :funk: :time: :kiss: :call: :hug: :lol :'( :Q :L ;P :$ :P :o :@ :D :( :)

日历

« 2017-12-16  
     12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31      

数据统计

  • 访问量: 121142
  • 日志数: 920
  • 建立时间: 2007-08-16
  • 更新时间: 2013-08-15

RSS订阅

Open Toolbar