美国消费者信心与资本货币市场价格的上升原因揭秘

上一篇 / 下一篇  2013-05-06 14:11:20 / 精华(3) / 置顶(1)


经济情况不妙,全球经济长期下行的趋势没有改变。

 

4月份官方公布的中国制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)为50.6%,虽然连续7个月在50的荣枯线以上,但环比回落0.3个百分点,并且各主要单项指数回落,新订单指数回落0.6个百分点,新出口订单指数回落超过2个百分点降至50%以下,生产指数微降0.1个百分点,而购进价格指数大幅回落10.5个百分点降至401%。上述数据显示实体经济紧缩、出口低迷的现实情况,与一季度的克强指数可以相互印证。一季度耀眼的进出口数据,再次受到挑战。

 

美国更糟糕的制造业数据也不能让人感到安慰,反而预示了黯淡的出口前景。

 

430日,美国供应管理协会芝加哥分会发布4月采购经理人指数,当月PMI跌至49.0,跌破了50的荣枯分界线,低于3月的52.4,创3年半以来最低纪录,远远低于市场预期。全球经济负面激荡,欧美经济下滑将对中国出口造成更严重的打击。

 

美国失业率下行,今年45日,美国劳工部公布的3月份非农就业人数环比增加8.8万,创下9个月新低,失业率7.6%,环比下降了0.1个百分点。这并不是因为就业上升,而是因为更多找不到工作的人脱离了劳动力大军。3月劳动力总量减少49.6万,导致美国总人口中有工作或寻找工作者的比例(劳动参与率)降至63.3%,创下1979年以来的最低纪录。近两年美国经济研究机构一直在强调劳动参与率的下降,仅看失业率已经无法反映就业市场的残酷。

 

离奇的是,实体经济黯淡,美国的消费者信心与资本货币市场呈现出相反的盛况。据美国经济咨商局(The Conference Board)宣布,4月的消费者信心指数为68.1点,远高于3月的消费者信心为59.7点。另据标普公司宣布,2月凯斯-希勒(Case-Shiller)美国20个大城市房价指数(经季调)环比增长1.2%,高于经济学家1.0%的平均预期。

 

北京时间51日凌晨,道琼斯指数报收于14,839.49点,涨幅为0.14%,仅低于历史最高收盘位、今年41125.26点;标普500指数上涨3.93点,收于1,597.54点,涨幅为0.25%,为收盘历史最高价格。

 

美国消费者信心与资本货币市场价格的上升,得益于产品价格的低廉,大量资金的涌入,以及大企业的财务表现。

 

房地产市场以例,旧金山等富人扎堆、深受移民欢迎的城市,成为最大的得益城市,而惹人关注、涨幅去年以来第一的凤凰城除了得益于当地大公司之外,还因为在泡沫期间跌得过于惨烈,出现了报复性反弹。

 

中国的房地产市场有相似之处,对人口吸引力强、刚性需求强烈的大城市,房地产价格不断上升,地方政府不得不动用最严厉的行政手段抑制房价的上升。而中国的债券市场则是火中取栗的市场,鉴于股票市场表现如此糟糕,人们不得不将目光对准有政府隐性担保的债券市场。人人都担心债市泡沫的风险,但人人都认为自己不会接到最后一棒,在一种风险感知迟钝的狂欢中,债券市场继续与中国的城镇化概念比翼齐飞。

 

与此相反,中国境内的股票市场却呈现出惊人的恐慌情绪,除了极少数公司之外,没有什么公司被真正看好,包括利润亮丽的银行板块。这种恐慌情绪还反映在对黄金的疯狂抢购中,412日与15国际市场黄金狂跌,但426日,国际金价创下年内最大单日涨幅,纽约黄金期货价格收盘大涨2.7%,报1462美元/盎司。以中国为首的黄金投资者抢购者爆棚,10天内中国内地投资人鲸吞实物黄金300吨,约占全球黄金年产量的10%,国内黄金珠宝行业的黄金库存已基本见底,仅补齐正常铺货量就需要600吨黄金。

 

抢金热情是恐慌情绪的投射,说明市场被非理性的恐慌情绪占据。考虑到中国地方政府削山、填海的城镇化热情,考虑到几乎每个中等以上城市都有一个新城,而制造业、周期性行业仍然处于低谷,考虑到欧美长期低迷的失业率,中国、印度等国投资者继续对黄金投出信任票。

 

全球漫长的经济下行周期远未结束,中国经济转型小荷初露,方向未明,从2008年开始的全球经济冰河季,正在以另类方式出现。

 

注:凤凰古城成了乌鸡

大家有些幸灾乐祸

似乎在说,谁让你收门票的

当地垄断资源的大胃们

高估了自身资源的吸引力

这是个教训,永远不要过于高估自己

 

红十字会的事就像足协

不查清楚,永远无法证明清白

对李承鹏的攻击

不会转移大家的注意力

试图转移火力的人,歇歇吧

一方是自愿为家乡奉献

一方郭美美事没闹清,还有强捐之嫌

公道自在人心

 

朱令事件还在发酵

相信有水落石出的一天

有浮力,否则早沉没水底

 

休息的两天恶补了一些课程

对着阳光,窗外的绿叶,看着历史

在隧道中,不觉黑暗

站内搜索:

TAG: 货币市场 消费者 中国制造业

引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-15 20:02:19
Th <a href="http://www.cheapjerseysnflsale.us.com/">Wholesale Jerseys Free Shipping</a> e three suspects in  <a href="http://www.2018draftshop.com/Baker-Mayfield-Jersey/">Baker Mayfield Jersey</a> Wednesday’s $1M heist at the Beauty and Home System have been positively identified and are likely to appear in court today.A p <a href="http://www.cheapnhlchinajerseys.us.com/">Cheap NHL Jerseys Online</a> olice official said that the men were picked out from a police lineup yesterday. They are to be charged with robbery under arms and unlawful possession
引用 删除 shekplos9t   /   2018-08-15 17:58:39
Visitors tour 14th <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseyscheap.cc/">Wholesale Jerseys From China</a>  ChinaASEAN Expo in NanningTwin deadly attacks <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseyscheap.cc/">http://www.wholesalenfljerseyscheap.cc/</a>  occur in southern IraqGreece struggles to clean up oil spill, mayors warn of legal actionIndian troops kill top militant in <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseyscheap.cc/">Cheap NFL Jerseys From China</a>  Indiancontrolled Kashmir gunfightBird'seye view of Zibo City in east ChinaFire drill held in S China's GuangxiC
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2018-08-15 14:09:55
Introducing your own private spark can certainly make a fabric come alive. "W <a href="http://www.authoritybrownsshop.com/hoodie-c-2/">Cheap Browns Hoodie</a> hen Croatia withdrew,Cheap Browns Hoodie, the meaning of the arbitr <a href="http://www.authoritybrownsshop.com/emmanuel-ogbah-browns-jersey-c-38/">Authentic Emmanuel Ogbah Jersey</a> ation disappeared. If there are voices,Authentic Emmanuel Ogbah Jersey, rather quickly (we can retrieve the sounds).They fit comfortably under any type of  <a href="http://www.authoritybrownsshop.com/shon-coleman-browns-jersey-c-23/">Shon Coleman Womens Jersey</a> c
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2018-08-15 10:44:03
It is a pricey ex <a href="http://www.thenfljetsshop.com/Youth-Nathan-Shepherd-Elite-Jersey/">Nathan Shepherd Jersey</a> pertise so one that is normally saved for those special occa <a href="http://www.thenfljetsshop.com/Youth-Marcus-Maye-Elite-Jersey/">Cheap Marcus Maye Jersey</a> sions. A baby doll apparel or an A line fits through the years well. Authorities ordered residents to vacate their settlements on the  <a href="http://www.thenfljetsshop.com/Youth-Sam-Darnold-Elite-Jersey/">Sam Darnold Elite Jersey</a> riverbanks,Nathan Shepherd Jersey, and relocate to new flats, as the government attempts
引用 删除 shekplos9t   /   2018-08-14 19:44:54
Without a good betti <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalesportsnfljerseys.com/">Wholesale Jerseys</a> ng system, youcannot make money regularly.But he later admitted <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalesportsnfljerseys.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys Shop</a>  he had miscalculated those odds, and there was actually an 87 percent probability of Avalia tipping the st <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalesportsnfljerseys.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys</a> ayer over the limit.Meanwhile, not far away on Denver's famous Colfax Avenue, a group of 50, older conservativ
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-14 09:51:47
And just because plus size gi <a href="http://www.rosherun2016ireland.com/nike-roshe-one-flyknit.html">nike roshe run flyknit ireland</a> rls may just be somewhat hippy and busty, that doesn’t signify they can’t loo <a href="http://www.rosherun2016ireland.com/nike-shox-turbo.html">nike shox turbo black</a> k nice inside of a short prom dress way too. The sawmills had difficulties getting rid of the waste bark which resulted from the procedure of denuding the logs before sawing them. It has <a href="http://www.rosherun2016ireland.com/nike-shox-nz.html">nike shox nz ireland</a>  a piano
引用 删除 shekplos7p   /   2018-08-13 22:28:18
”“Bonita Applebum” by A Tribe Referred to as Quest is a perso <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenflfootballjerseys.com/">Wholesale Jerseys China Cheap</a> n <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenflfootballjerseys.com/">Cheap Jerseys USA</a>  of Wholesale Jerseys China Cheap the largestmarketing rap beats through the early 1990’s.Photo Sina. Chorus: “More than phrases to show you sense, that your really like for me is actual.Maybe, the most beneficial way which you  <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenflfootballjerseys.com/">Cheap Jerseys From China</a> can go abo
引用 删除 shekplos7p   /   2018-08-12 20:48:35
Each and every Breath You Consider – The Police At heart the  <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseyscheapstore.com/">Wholesale NFL Jerseys</a> songs ly <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseyscheapstore.com/">Wholesale Cheap Jerseys</a> rics had been penned by Sting to his Xwife at the time of their divorce. Diabetes and pregnancy also increase possibilities of vaginal infection. Note*: Some sections may be missing  <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseyscheapstore.com/">Wholesale China Jerseys</a> if data is unavailable for the company. For these
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2018-08-12 09:10:45
Another Flappy Bird hack involves making the top  <a href="http://www.yourfume.com/nike-air-max-2017-heren-rood-zwart-goedkoop.html">Nike Air Max 2017 Heren Rood Zwart Goedkoop</a> eco friendly pole hidden <a href="http://www.yourfume.com/nike-air-max-2017-nederland-sale/nike-air-max-2017-dames.html">nike air max 2017 dames kopen</a> . Fans are used in the capture and disposal of scavenger blue smoke. May be in primary stage,Nike Air Max 2017 Heren Rood Zwart Goedkoop, it does not give discomfort. If your favorite field is human circulatory system <a href="http://www.yourfume.com/heren-nike-air-max-97-2017-retro-schoenen-sliver-nederland-384.html">Heren Nike Air Max 97 2017 Retro Schoenen Sliver Nederland</a> , then you
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-12 03:20:41
City Magistrate Anne <a href="http://www.authenticsoccerjerseys.us.com/">Jerseys Soccer Authentic</a> tte Singh jailed and fined a repeat offender after he made his s <a href="http://www.jerseysnflcheapwholesale.us.com/">NFL Jerseys China</a> econd appearance before her, charged with beating and threatening his reputed wife.Mark Singh,Jerseys Soccer Authentic, 41 of Lot 150 Regent Street,NFL Jerseys Ch <a href="http://www.wholesalecheapchinanfljerseys.us.com/">China Jerseys Wholesale</a> ina, Bourda,China Jerseys Wholesale, Georgetown, plead
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-11 03:27:50
The suppliers will not provide low quality products to maintain their ow <a href="http://www.authenticramsofficialonline.com/AUTHENTIC-JOHN-FRANKLIN-MYERS-RAMS-JERSEY/">John Franklin-Myers Jersey</a> n profits.Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said the remarks by Erdoga <a href="http://www.authenticramsofficialonline.com/AUTHENTIC-JOSEPH-NOTEBOOM-RAMS-JERSEY/">Joseph Noteboom Jersey</a> n were "unacceptable" and what the Turkish family minister has done was "irresponsible. CB Blower Co. It is also a great way to relax and stretch out those lig <a href="http://www.authenticramsofficialonline.com/AUTHENTIC-TYLER-HIGBEE-RAMS-JERSEY/">Tyler Higbee Rams Jersey</a> a
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-10 20:23:18
The mobile Internet has found its way in Chinese people's politic <a href="http://www.thelionsstoreonline.com/Black-14-Jake-Rudock-Womens-Jersey/">Jake Rudock Jersey</a> al life.One purchasi <a href="http://www.thelionsstoreonline.com/Black-33-Kerryon-Johnson-Womens-Jersey/">Kerryon Johnson Womens Jersey</a> ng goal of the buyers is to find the right products at the lowest cost, as this is a critical step to achieve the substantial profits.China on Tuesday again voiced opposition to a gathering in Vanco <a href="http://www.thelionsstoreonline.com/Hats/">Detroit Lions Hats</a> uver of foreign m
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-10 19:23:26
…three-yr-old found wandering i <a href="http://www.nbaglobalstore.com/">Cheap NBA Jerseys USA</a> n rum shopDays before Christmas, the <a href="http://www.cheapnfljerseysoutletwholesale.cc/">Cheap NFL Jerseys</a>  Child Care and Protection Agency (CCPA) were forced to intervene in two situations to ensure that three children, who were neglected, receive adequate care.The Albouystow <a href="http://www.wholesalejerseysenjoy.us.com/">Wholesale NFL Jerseys Online</a> n house that the siblings were rescued from.The children, aged
引用 删除 shekplos7p   /   2018-08-10 16:32:48
Gai, was the chief <a href="http://www.cheapoutletnfljerseys.us.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys Wholesale</a>  opposition negotiator during the InterGovernm <a href="http://www.cheapoutletnfljerseys.us.com/">Wholesale Jerseys</a> ental Authority on Development (IGAD)mediated peace efforts in Addis Ababa which Cheap NFL Jerseys Wholesale resulted into the signing of the peace agreement to  <a href="http://www.cheapoutletnfljerseys.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys China Wholesale</a> resolve the conflict in South Sudan.According to Baldivieso, all players me
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-10 12:20:39
Contaminated air must be exhausted in a way <a href="http://www.thedolphinsfootballonline.com/AUTHENTIC-XAVIEN-HOWARD-DOLPHINS-JERSEY/">Xavien Howard Jersey</a>  that prevents it from returning back into the buildi <a href="http://www.thedolphinsfootballonline.com/AUTHENTIC-MINKAH-FITZPATRICK-DOLPHINS-JERSEY/">Minkah Fitzpatrick Dolphins Jersey</a> ng, and surrounding locations where people may be present. Sports, fishing, physically challenging activities, beautiful beaches, nightlife,Xavien Howard Jersey, and much more make this country ideal for <a href="http://www.thedolphinsfootballonline.com/AUTHENTIC-LAREMY-TUNSIL-DOLPHINS-JERSEY/">Laremy Tunsil Dolphins Jersey</a>
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-09 17:30:01
The go <a href="http://www.footballtitansonline.com/delanie-walker-titans-jersey/">Delanie Walker Big Tall Jersey</a> vernment of the southwest city of Guiyang held an onlin <a href="http://www.footballtitansonline.com/derrick-henry-titans-jersey/">Derrick Henry Jersey</a> e forum with its residents last year on ways to get rid of traffic jams,Delanie Walker Big Tall Jersey, and formed a traffic management plan including buildin <a href="http://www.footballtitansonline.com/hoodie/">Tennessee Titans Hoodie</a> g a light railway, and bus rapid transit system to ease traffic pressure. Whether
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-09 14:24:43
6.CB Blower Co.Tee TimeFor a chance to get a little healthy competition among <a href="http://www.thenflsteelersshoponline.com/Youth-Chukwuma-Okorafor-Steelers-Jersey/">Bud Dupree Jersey</a>  the boys underway, dont forget about Los <a href="http://www.thenflsteelersshoponline.com/Youth-Chukwuma-Okorafor-Steelers-Jersey/">Chukwuma Okorafor Jersey</a>  Sueos 18 hole,Bud Dupree Jersey, 72 par golf course situated among the rainforest and banana trees. Relax during the day. For proper ventilation,Chukwuma Okorafor Jersey, exhaust f <a href="http://www.thenflsteelersshoponline.com/Youth-Sean-Davis-Steelers-Jersey/">Steelers Sean Davis Jersey</a> a
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-09 12:06:24
B <a href="http://www.plopic.com/puma-slides-fur.html">puma fluffy slides australia</a> e a  <a href="http://www.plopic.com/puma-slides-fur/puma-fluffy-slides-pink.html">puma fluffy slides grey australia</a> good physician joining at the best heath centre and be famous serving best treatmentTHE HAGUE, March 13 (Xinhua)    The Dutch Foreign Mini <a href="http://www.plopic.com/puma-slides-fur/puma-fluffy-slides-black.html">puma fluffy slides pink australia</a> stry on Monday urged nationals travelling to Turkey to be alert and avoid gatherings and crowded places following an escalation of diplomatic tensions betwee
引用 删除 shekplos9t   /   2018-08-08 21:40:49
No one was remotely upset or distressed by it. I plead guil <a href="http://www.cheapjerseysnflwholesalechina.us.com/">Wholesale Jerseys From China</a> ty and express my sin <a href="http://www.cheapjerseysnflwholesalechina.us.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys Store</a> cere remorse.The halftime whistle will have come as a major relief for Betis but for the first 10 minutes of the second period it was again Sevilla who were on top, althou <a href="http://www.cheapjerseysnflwholesalechina.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys China Online</a> gh without being able to create clear chances. 31
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-08 21:24:40
Whether yo <a href="http://www.teamnfl49ersstore.com/Black-3C-J-Beathard-Womens-Jersey/">C.J. Beathard Womens Jersey</a> u choose a condominium rental or a home, your kids are much very likely  <a href="http://www.teamnfl49ersstore.com/T-Shirts/">Cheap 49ers T-Shirts</a> to feel comfortable in the more natural and comfortable environment that a vacation rental supplies. This is also true to the size. In this innovative techniq <a href="http://www.teamnfl49ersstore.com/Black-99-Deforest-Buckner-Womens-Jersey/">DeForest Buckner 49ers Jersey</a> ue of Virtual Dedicated Hosting. You have a great deal of op
 

评分:0

我来说两句

显示全部

:loveliness: :handshake :victory: :funk: :time: :kiss: :call: :hug: :lol :'( :Q :L ;P :$ :P :o :@ :D :( :)

日历

« 2018-08-16  
   1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031 

数据统计

  • 访问量: 121142
  • 日志数: 920
  • 建立时间: 2007-08-16
  • 更新时间: 2013-08-15

RSS订阅

Open Toolbar