美国消费者信心与资本货币市场价格的上升原因揭秘

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经济情况不妙,全球经济长期下行的趋势没有改变。

 

4月份官方公布的中国制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)为50.6%,虽然连续7个月在50的荣枯线以上,但环比回落0.3个百分点,并且各主要单项指数回落,新订单指数回落0.6个百分点,新出口订单指数回落超过2个百分点降至50%以下,生产指数微降0.1个百分点,而购进价格指数大幅回落10.5个百分点降至401%。上述数据显示实体经济紧缩、出口低迷的现实情况,与一季度的克强指数可以相互印证。一季度耀眼的进出口数据,再次受到挑战。

 

美国更糟糕的制造业数据也不能让人感到安慰,反而预示了黯淡的出口前景。

 

430日,美国供应管理协会芝加哥分会发布4月采购经理人指数,当月PMI跌至49.0,跌破了50的荣枯分界线,低于3月的52.4,创3年半以来最低纪录,远远低于市场预期。全球经济负面激荡,欧美经济下滑将对中国出口造成更严重的打击。

 

美国失业率下行,今年45日,美国劳工部公布的3月份非农就业人数环比增加8.8万,创下9个月新低,失业率7.6%,环比下降了0.1个百分点。这并不是因为就业上升,而是因为更多找不到工作的人脱离了劳动力大军。3月劳动力总量减少49.6万,导致美国总人口中有工作或寻找工作者的比例(劳动参与率)降至63.3%,创下1979年以来的最低纪录。近两年美国经济研究机构一直在强调劳动参与率的下降,仅看失业率已经无法反映就业市场的残酷。

 

离奇的是,实体经济黯淡,美国的消费者信心与资本货币市场呈现出相反的盛况。据美国经济咨商局(The Conference Board)宣布,4月的消费者信心指数为68.1点,远高于3月的消费者信心为59.7点。另据标普公司宣布,2月凯斯-希勒(Case-Shiller)美国20个大城市房价指数(经季调)环比增长1.2%,高于经济学家1.0%的平均预期。

 

北京时间51日凌晨,道琼斯指数报收于14,839.49点,涨幅为0.14%,仅低于历史最高收盘位、今年41125.26点;标普500指数上涨3.93点,收于1,597.54点,涨幅为0.25%,为收盘历史最高价格。

 

美国消费者信心与资本货币市场价格的上升,得益于产品价格的低廉,大量资金的涌入,以及大企业的财务表现。

 

房地产市场以例,旧金山等富人扎堆、深受移民欢迎的城市,成为最大的得益城市,而惹人关注、涨幅去年以来第一的凤凰城除了得益于当地大公司之外,还因为在泡沫期间跌得过于惨烈,出现了报复性反弹。

 

中国的房地产市场有相似之处,对人口吸引力强、刚性需求强烈的大城市,房地产价格不断上升,地方政府不得不动用最严厉的行政手段抑制房价的上升。而中国的债券市场则是火中取栗的市场,鉴于股票市场表现如此糟糕,人们不得不将目光对准有政府隐性担保的债券市场。人人都担心债市泡沫的风险,但人人都认为自己不会接到最后一棒,在一种风险感知迟钝的狂欢中,债券市场继续与中国的城镇化概念比翼齐飞。

 

与此相反,中国境内的股票市场却呈现出惊人的恐慌情绪,除了极少数公司之外,没有什么公司被真正看好,包括利润亮丽的银行板块。这种恐慌情绪还反映在对黄金的疯狂抢购中,412日与15国际市场黄金狂跌,但426日,国际金价创下年内最大单日涨幅,纽约黄金期货价格收盘大涨2.7%,报1462美元/盎司。以中国为首的黄金投资者抢购者爆棚,10天内中国内地投资人鲸吞实物黄金300吨,约占全球黄金年产量的10%,国内黄金珠宝行业的黄金库存已基本见底,仅补齐正常铺货量就需要600吨黄金。

 

抢金热情是恐慌情绪的投射,说明市场被非理性的恐慌情绪占据。考虑到中国地方政府削山、填海的城镇化热情,考虑到几乎每个中等以上城市都有一个新城,而制造业、周期性行业仍然处于低谷,考虑到欧美长期低迷的失业率,中国、印度等国投资者继续对黄金投出信任票。

 

全球漫长的经济下行周期远未结束,中国经济转型小荷初露,方向未明,从2008年开始的全球经济冰河季,正在以另类方式出现。

 

注:凤凰古城成了乌鸡

大家有些幸灾乐祸

似乎在说,谁让你收门票的

当地垄断资源的大胃们

高估了自身资源的吸引力

这是个教训,永远不要过于高估自己

 

红十字会的事就像足协

不查清楚,永远无法证明清白

对李承鹏的攻击

不会转移大家的注意力

试图转移火力的人,歇歇吧

一方是自愿为家乡奉献

一方郭美美事没闹清,还有强捐之嫌

公道自在人心

 

朱令事件还在发酵

相信有水落石出的一天

有浮力,否则早沉没水底

 

休息的两天恶补了一些课程

对着阳光,窗外的绿叶,看着历史

在隧道中,不觉黑暗

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TAG: 货币市场 消费者 中国制造业

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