叶檀:日本资本与货币市场动荡不休 它比美国信用差远了

上一篇 / 下一篇  2013-06-04 15:04:39 / 精华(3) / 置顶(1)


日本资本与货币市场动荡不休。邯郸学步的安倍经济学暴露出,日元信用比美元差得太远。

 

528日,日经指数上涨之前三天,日经指数连跌三天。523日,日经指数重挫7.3%,创20113月日本大震灾以来的单日最大跌幅。安倍经济学刺激日本股市大涨,日经指数在今年年内已经上涨50.3%,仅5月之内就有12.7%的涨幅。

 

日本国债价格起伏不定。2013年第一周,日本十年期国债收益率从去年12月初的低点0.69%反弹至接近0.85%4月初又大降至0.44%,在日本股市大跌后又反弹至1.0%12个月高点。丰田不得不取消200亿日元的发债计划。

 

克鲁格曼说,别紧张,这是市场暂时筋挛,没道理可讲。日本央行总裁黑田东彦称,由于市场看好复苏以及通胀预期,导致日本国债收益率上升,与债务危机无关。

 

虚浮的安慰没有办法缓解投资者的紧张情绪,日本债券价格形象地反映出,日本不具备像美国一样的信用实力。

 

金融危机之后,美国实行量化宽松货币政策至今,作为市场基准风向标之一的美国十年期国债收益率便在低位徘徊,其特点是,风险越高时收益率越低,风险较低时收益率反而上升。

 

去年61日,美国劳工部公布的就业数据不及预期,加上南欧债务危机加深,使得美国十年期国债收益率早盘有史以来首次降至1.5%以下。而当美国经济数据好转、欧债危机暂时缓解时,美国国债收益率就有回升趋势。今年528号,在美国公布了一连串令人振奋的经济数据后,美国10年期国债收益率刷新年内高位,逼近2.09%

 

日本则相反。宽松货币的预期使国际投资者开始追逐日本股市,并没有实在的业绩支撑,日经指数从201111月一路上升到15942的高位,而后在今年528下落收盘于14311点。短期投资者对日本经济复苏没有坚定的信心,而忙于收割羊毛,以免夜长梦多。与此同时,日本国债大幅波动,51日发行的十年期国债收益率为0.597%,528号发行二十年期国债收益率为1.680%,并不算高,但收益率波动却成为高负债国日本的心腹大患。

 

日本陷于股市与债券两难境地,如果股市大涨而债券价格下跌,对于日本财政与企业债券融资绝不是什么好消息;如果日本股市大跌而债券价格上涨,无法鼓励投资者对日本企业的信心;最糟糕的是,股市债市下跌,而日元上升,那对于日本而言是致命打击。

 

按照日本财务省公布的数据,2012年日本岁入90.3兆亿日元,其中公债收入为44.2兆亿日元,近半收入来自发债,即使利率低下,去年一年的债务支出费用也高达21.9兆亿日元。国家及地方长期债务总额高达940兆亿日元,占GDP196%。对于日本来说,最好的情况莫过于在日元大幅贬值的同时,仍能够维持日债的高价,以降低财务成本,获得全球通胀税。

 

日本不是美国,日债不能与美债攀比。美国是全球使用量最大的货币,美债是全球投资者最后的避险圣地,因此,在美国、欧洲出现经济危机时,美债的价格就大幅窜升,美国大量发行货币依然能够收取全球铸币税,这是由美国货币的实力加各种威胁所决定的。

 

日元最初在美国及西方世界的逼迫下一路上升,而后因为全球债务危机,因为日本人储蓄买债的习惯、因为日本的实体经济紧缩,成为全球最重要的避险货币。这与日本经济是否强盛一毛钱关系也没有,就如目前人民币大幅升值是外在压力的结果,也是中国手中握有过多外汇储备的结果。

 

鉴于日元使用范围不广,日本经济越糟日元使用范围越窄,日本也不可能有什么全球的通胀税。

 

截至去年12月底,外国投资者持有的短期和长期日本国债余额为84万亿日元,占日本960万亿日元已发行国债的8.7%,比去年9月底的纪录高点9.1%有所下降。日本央行的通胀税主要收到了本国人头上。倒是最近龃龉不断的中国增持了日本国债。截至2012年底,中国对日本债券的持有量达到20万亿日元,同比增加14%,仍是日本最大的债权国。

 

        日本可以继续实行量化宽松货币政策,但日本股市与债市的跷跷板维持平衡越来越困难,最终恐怕会像以往一样,无疾而终。只有一点可以肯定,日元贬值对日本企业的好处是一定不会变的。
站内搜索:

TAG: 货币市场 日本

引用 删除 shekplos4x   /   2018-06-17 22:38:36
The enhanced DASS will upgrade the way the aircraft prote <a href="http://www.ncaasportsshop.com/Ucla-Bruins-Connor-Beadles-Jersey/">Connor Beadles College Jersey</a> ctsitself from <a href="http://www.ncaasportsshop.com/Florida-Gators-Tj-Mccoy-Jersey/">T.J. McCoy College Jersey</a>  a full range of threats,Connor Beadles College Jersey, including enemy aircraft andmissiles launched from the ground, according to the statement.The commercial hunting of whales is prohibited in the Southern Ocean Whale Sanc <a href="http://www.ncaasportsshop.com/Ucla-Bruins-Ryan-Hollins-Jersey/">Ryan Hollins College Jersey</a> tuar
引用 删除 shekplos2g   /   2018-06-17 16:26:43
"UNITED N <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseysforcheap.us.com/">Wholesale NFL Jerseys Online</a> ATIONS, April 30 (Xinhua)Jazz has given rhythm to the strugg <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseysforcheap.us.com/">Wholesale NFL Jerseys China</a> les of civil rights movements around the world, the top UN cultural official said on Wednesday,Wholesale NFL Jerseys Online, hailin <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseysforcheap.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys Wholesale</a> g the power of the music to bring together artists from different cultures and backgrounds as a driv
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2018-06-17 00:51:14
Scoring involves the digit ar <a href="http://www.nmdskorsverige.com/adidas-nmd-xr4.html">Adidas NMD XR4 Sverige</a> ound the best for the sum of all cards, which may make the game fairly  <a href="http://www.nmdskorsverige.com/billiga-herr-dam-adidas-nmd-xr1-olive-gron-sverige-butik.html">Dam Adidas NMD XR1 Olive gr?n Sverige</a> engaging.0 Liter TiVCT directinjection i4 engine.Brad Glosserman, executive director of Pacific Forum think tank in Honolulu,Adidas NMD XR4 Sverige, said the threeway relationship is the "gold <a href="http://www.nmdskorsverige.com/kopa-herr-pharrell-x-adidas-nmd-human-race-skor-triple-svart-vit-sverige-online.html">Herr Pharrell x adidas NMD Human Race Skor Triple Svart Vit Sverige</a>  standar
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-16 03:00:54
Residents of Port  <a href="http://www.wholesaleauthenticjerseyschina.us.com/">Wholesale Jerseys China</a> Kaituma said they are living in fear as the man wh <a href="http://www.clearancejerseys.us.com/">China NFL Jerseys</a> o is alleged to have killed his wife,Wholesale Jerseys China, Deborah Allen,China NFL Jerseys, on Sunday last is still at large and might sti <a href="http://www.wholesalejersyeschinanfl.us.com/">Wholesale China Jerseys</a> ll be in the community.They claim that the man was spotted in a neighborhood burial ground
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-16 00:29:54
S. That's Mexico for you!Bordered in the south by Guatemala and <a href="http://www.thedolphinsofficialnfl.com/cordrea-tankersley-jersey/">Cordrea Tankersley Dolphins Jersey</a>  Belize and in the north by the United States of America, Mexico is a large co <a href="http://www.thedolphinsofficialnfl.com/xavien-howard-jersey/">Xavien Howard Dolphins Jersey</a> untry that covers a surface area of 761 thousand square miles. 40mm balls show up better onscreen, and the slower balls encourage a longer rally, which keeps  <a href="http://www.thedolphinsofficialnfl.com/customized/">Customized Dolphins Jersey</a> t
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2018-06-15 16:34:46
DeLaMater,Adidas NMD R2 Sale, the <a href="http://www.alphabouncebeyond.com/adidas-nmd-r2.html">Adidas NMD R2 Sale</a>  commander of the U.While admitting she was "surprised" by the two recent jobs  <a href="http://www.alphabouncebeyond.com/adidas-tennis-hu.html">Adidas Tennis HU Sale</a> reports that showed the pace of job creation running under what she had expected,Adidas Tennis HU Sale, Yellen cautioned against jumping to conclusions of the longer trend. military’s lon <a href="http://www.alphabouncebeyond.com/">Adidas AlphaBounce Beyond Sale Online</a> g
引用 删除 shekplos9t   /   2018-06-15 05:30:22
The finest, most expensive paper can make lousy bridal shower invitation <a href="http://www.cheapsportsshop.com/">Wholesale Jerseys Supply</a> s if the printing is awful. <a href="http://www.cheapsportsshop.com/">Wholesale NFL Jerseys</a> Your strength will be diverse from squats to curls or even bench presses so do listen to your body and tweak the weight to suit that part of your body.Depending on the goal you have set out for yourse <a href="http://www.cheapsportsshop.com/">Wholesale Jerseys</a> l
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-14 17:23:20
–?? ?Cites $7.4M ticket claim by Jagdeo By Aben <a href="http://www.nflcheapchinajerseys.us.com/">Jerseys From China</a> a RockcliffeAs the House po <a href="http://www.wholesalejersyeschinanfl.us.com/">Wholesale China Jerseys</a> sitioned itself on Thursday last to pass the? Former Presidents (Benefits and Other Facilities) Bill, Minister of Finance,Jerseys From China, Winston Jordan noted that even the capped benefits offere <a href="http://www.wholesalechinajerseyscheap.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys For Sale</a> d to former Presidents will
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-14 11:06:21
Herbs w <a href="http://www.airmaxtheapascher-fr.com/nike-air-max-thea-boutique/air-max-thea-femme.html">nike air max thea femme pas cher</a> ork slowly but surely and in about four months' time you will notice that th <a href="http://www.airmaxtheapascher-fr.com/nike-air-max-90/nike-air-max-90-ultra.html">nike air max 90 ultra essential pas cher</a> e symptoms vanish and you are free of kidney calculus for life. Excessively hard water and water with high fluoride content also make you susceptible to kidney stones. I just made many simple mis <a href="http://www.airmaxtheapascher-fr.com/nike-air-max-thea-boutique/air-max-thea-homme.html">nike air max thea homme pas cher</a> takes. A number of her
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-14 08:03:55
There are places on  <a href="http://www.nflbearsgearofficial.com/tarik-cohen-jersey/">Womens Tarik Cohen Jersey</a> t <a href="http://www.nflbearsgearofficial.com/hoodie/">Chicago Bears Hoodie</a> he internet that offer you a wide range of these lamps and lights.2627 yen compared with 108. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reiterate <a href="http://www.nflbearsgearofficial.com/cody-whitehair-jersey/">Cody Whitehair Bears Jersey</a> d central bank's plan to taper its stimulus exit despite recent weakness in the economy. Qatar has strongly denied these charges. In Europe t
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-14 02:31:16
You can also benefit from free shippi <a href="http://www.authenticchiefsnflstore.com/mitch-morse-jersey/">Womens Mitch Morse Jersey</a> ng to your doorstep. mil <a href="http://www.authenticchiefsnflstore.com/justin-houston-jersey/">Womens Justin Houston Jersey</a> itary’s longestrunning humanitarian relief mission.Commune with Nature. 8 (Xinhua)The U. Often a player will use a paddle that will produce great spin on the ball on one s <a href="http://www.authenticchiefsnflstore.com/steven-nelson-jersey/">Steven Nelson Jersey</a> ide,Womens Mitch Morse Jersey, and the other side will create little
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-13 23:07:37
2223 yen against 1. 11 (Xinhua)In her first testimony to the Congre <a href="http://www.azzotta.com/nike-air-max-2017-leather.html">nike air max 2017 leather black</a> ss,nike air max 2017 leather black, U. Kid Clear c <a href="http://www.azzotta.com/">cheap nike air max 2017</a> apsules relieve you from renal colic.It's a feelgood mission that also helps the U.usatt. dollars). Right now it has built its presence felt as a result of all principal casinos all a
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-13 20:25:06
It cleanses your gall <a href="http://www.thelionsstoreonline.com/Black-30-Teez-Tabor-Womens-Jersey/">Teez Tabor Jersey</a> bladder and helps to flush kidney stones. Air Force  <a href="http://www.thelionsstoreonline.com/Black-14-Jake-Rudock-Womens-Jersey/">Jake Rudock Jersey</a> began the annual Operation Christmas Drop in 1952 when a Guambased air crew noticed residents on the island of Kapingamarangi waving at <a href="http://www.thelionsstoreonline.com/Black-9-Matthew-Stafford-Womens-Jersey/">Matthew Stafford Lions Jersey</a>  them as they flew overhead. It is advised to use natural treatment to flush gallstones for
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2018-06-13 11:08:54
On a monthly basis, industrial production expanded <a href="http://www.nmdskorsverige.com/billigt-herr-adidas-nmd-r1-stlt-skor-gron-vit-sverige-butik.html">Herr Adidas NMD R1 STLT Skor gr?n Vit Sverige</a>  0. Ping Pong PaddlesThe sport of table t <a href="http://www.nmdskorsverige.com/kop-dam-adidas-originals-nmd-high-top-skor-rosa-vit-sverige-butik.html">Dam Adidas Originals NMD High Top Skor Rosa Vit Sverige</a> ennis uses paddles to hit the ball. air force planes are dropping food and toys on remote atolls in the Pacific as part of the U. But now you’ve the choice of enjoying Baccarat on the internet due to gaming w <a href="http://www.nmdskorsverige.com/kopa-herr-dam-mastermind-x-adidas-nmd-c2-suede-pack-loparskor-rod-sverige-butik.html">Dam Mastermind X Adidas NMD C2 Suede Pack L?parskor R?d Sverige</a> e
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-12 16:43:16
7 Garbine Muguruza or fellow compat <a href="http://www.scarpeoldskool.it/vans-slip-on/vans-slip-on-pelle.html">vans slip on pelle nere</a> riot Coco Vandeweghe.When you’ve finished celebratin <a href="http://www.scarpeoldskool.it/vans-old-skool/vans-old-skool-pro.html">vans old skool pro nere</a> g after finally selling your home, the hard part will start. CHENGDU, Sept.The city government has set up a working team for rescue operations and to deal with the after <a href="http://www.scarpeoldskool.it/vans-old-skool/vans-old-skool-grigie.html">vans old skool grigie</a> math. (Photo: Carlos BarriaREUTERS) Gatherin
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-12 11:12:50
Two of the injured vict <a href="http://www.2017airmax.com/nike-air-max-2017-cheap/air-max-2017-womens.html">nike air max 2017 womens sale</a> ims bei <a href="http://www.2017airmax.com/nike-air-max-97/air-max-97-mens.html">nike air max 97 mens sale</a> ng treated at Ruijin are in a critical condition."The bronze medal went to defending champion Guangdong, who defeated Shanghai 6549 for the third p <a href="http://www.2017airmax.com/nike-air-max-day-2017.html">nike air max day sale</a> lace.S. This can cause up and down movement and lateral movement of your foundation.Liaoning suffered a sudden blow when th
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2018-06-12 04:33:01
There are many things that get this to bulb better than those of the old <a href="http://www.airmax90ultra.us/nike-air-max-90-ultra-moire.html">nike air max 90 ultra moire sale</a>  hal <a href="http://www.airmax90ultra.us/nike-air-max-90-american-flag.html">nike air max 90 usa flag for sale</a> ogen bulb.The other seven patients at the hospital were mainly suffering from arm and leg fractures,nike air max 90 ultra moire sale, bruises and chest injuries, he said. Take a walk on the wild side of things and try  <a href="http://www.airmax90ultra.us/nike-air-max-90-premium.html">nike air max 90 premium womens black</a> our mo
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-12 04:04:43
Two more people were critically injured while ten others sustain <a href="http://www.tigeronitsukaaustralia.com/asics-gel-noosa-tri-8-sale.html">asics gel noosa tri 8 australia</a> ed minor injuries,asics gel noos <a href="http://www.tigeronitsukaaustralia.com/asics-onitsuka-tiger-shop/onitsuka-tiger-corsair-vin.html">asics onitsuka tiger corsair vin australia</a> a tri 8 australia, the government said.Stepping down onto the red carpet in a light drizzle,asics onitsuka tiger corsair vin australia, Obama and his family were greeted by Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno R <a href="http://www.tigeronitsukaaustralia.com/asics-gel-noosa-tri-9-cheap.html">asics gel noosa tri 9 australia</a> o
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2018-06-12 00:45:25
The ones that made use of that old halogen bulb can attest  <a href="http://www.scarpescontioutletit.it/nike-air-max/nike-air-max-2018.html">air max 2018 scontate</a> to the fact about the powerful bright light reflector, which the p <a href="http://www.scarpescontioutletit.it/nike-shox-sconti.html">nike shox sconti</a> roducer uses to beautify the bulb. At the same time,air max 2018 scontate, the combination of the characteristics of the mining industry, its development trend is digital, in <a href="http://www.scarpescontioutletit.it/nike-roshe-run-saldi/nike-roshe-two-flyknit.html">nike roshe two flyknit uomo</a> t
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-06-11 17:30:48
A yo <a href="http://www.nflauthenticjerseys.us.com/">Wholesale Authentic Jerseys</a> ung couple and an infant were air-dashed to the city yes <a href="http://www.chinanflcheapjerseys.us.com/">Wholesale Authentic Jerseys</a> terday with burns following a mishap at Black Water,Wholesale Authentic Jerseys, Barima,Wholesale Authentic Jerseys, North West  <a href="http://www.cheapjerseysfactory.us.com/">China NFL Jerseys</a> District.Hospital sources identified the victims as 17-year-old Sherri David; Kevin Savoury,China NFL Jerseys, 3
 

评分:0

我来说两句

显示全部

:loveliness: :handshake :victory: :funk: :time: :kiss: :call: :hug: :lol :'( :Q :L ;P :$ :P :o :@ :D :( :)

日历

« 2018-06-18  
     12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930

数据统计

  • 访问量: 121142
  • 日志数: 920
  • 建立时间: 2007-08-16
  • 更新时间: 2013-08-15

RSS订阅

Open Toolbar