叶檀:日本资本与货币市场动荡不休 它比美国信用差远了

上一篇 / 下一篇  2013-06-04 15:04:39 / 精华(3) / 置顶(1)


日本资本与货币市场动荡不休。邯郸学步的安倍经济学暴露出,日元信用比美元差得太远。

 

528日,日经指数上涨之前三天,日经指数连跌三天。523日,日经指数重挫7.3%,创20113月日本大震灾以来的单日最大跌幅。安倍经济学刺激日本股市大涨,日经指数在今年年内已经上涨50.3%,仅5月之内就有12.7%的涨幅。

 

日本国债价格起伏不定。2013年第一周,日本十年期国债收益率从去年12月初的低点0.69%反弹至接近0.85%4月初又大降至0.44%,在日本股市大跌后又反弹至1.0%12个月高点。丰田不得不取消200亿日元的发债计划。

 

克鲁格曼说,别紧张,这是市场暂时筋挛,没道理可讲。日本央行总裁黑田东彦称,由于市场看好复苏以及通胀预期,导致日本国债收益率上升,与债务危机无关。

 

虚浮的安慰没有办法缓解投资者的紧张情绪,日本债券价格形象地反映出,日本不具备像美国一样的信用实力。

 

金融危机之后,美国实行量化宽松货币政策至今,作为市场基准风向标之一的美国十年期国债收益率便在低位徘徊,其特点是,风险越高时收益率越低,风险较低时收益率反而上升。

 

去年61日,美国劳工部公布的就业数据不及预期,加上南欧债务危机加深,使得美国十年期国债收益率早盘有史以来首次降至1.5%以下。而当美国经济数据好转、欧债危机暂时缓解时,美国国债收益率就有回升趋势。今年528号,在美国公布了一连串令人振奋的经济数据后,美国10年期国债收益率刷新年内高位,逼近2.09%

 

日本则相反。宽松货币的预期使国际投资者开始追逐日本股市,并没有实在的业绩支撑,日经指数从201111月一路上升到15942的高位,而后在今年528下落收盘于14311点。短期投资者对日本经济复苏没有坚定的信心,而忙于收割羊毛,以免夜长梦多。与此同时,日本国债大幅波动,51日发行的十年期国债收益率为0.597%,528号发行二十年期国债收益率为1.680%,并不算高,但收益率波动却成为高负债国日本的心腹大患。

 

日本陷于股市与债券两难境地,如果股市大涨而债券价格下跌,对于日本财政与企业债券融资绝不是什么好消息;如果日本股市大跌而债券价格上涨,无法鼓励投资者对日本企业的信心;最糟糕的是,股市债市下跌,而日元上升,那对于日本而言是致命打击。

 

按照日本财务省公布的数据,2012年日本岁入90.3兆亿日元,其中公债收入为44.2兆亿日元,近半收入来自发债,即使利率低下,去年一年的债务支出费用也高达21.9兆亿日元。国家及地方长期债务总额高达940兆亿日元,占GDP196%。对于日本来说,最好的情况莫过于在日元大幅贬值的同时,仍能够维持日债的高价,以降低财务成本,获得全球通胀税。

 

日本不是美国,日债不能与美债攀比。美国是全球使用量最大的货币,美债是全球投资者最后的避险圣地,因此,在美国、欧洲出现经济危机时,美债的价格就大幅窜升,美国大量发行货币依然能够收取全球铸币税,这是由美国货币的实力加各种威胁所决定的。

 

日元最初在美国及西方世界的逼迫下一路上升,而后因为全球债务危机,因为日本人储蓄买债的习惯、因为日本的实体经济紧缩,成为全球最重要的避险货币。这与日本经济是否强盛一毛钱关系也没有,就如目前人民币大幅升值是外在压力的结果,也是中国手中握有过多外汇储备的结果。

 

鉴于日元使用范围不广,日本经济越糟日元使用范围越窄,日本也不可能有什么全球的通胀税。

 

截至去年12月底,外国投资者持有的短期和长期日本国债余额为84万亿日元,占日本960万亿日元已发行国债的8.7%,比去年9月底的纪录高点9.1%有所下降。日本央行的通胀税主要收到了本国人头上。倒是最近龃龉不断的中国增持了日本国债。截至2012年底,中国对日本债券的持有量达到20万亿日元,同比增加14%,仍是日本最大的债权国。

 

        日本可以继续实行量化宽松货币政策,但日本股市与债市的跷跷板维持平衡越来越困难,最终恐怕会像以往一样,无疾而终。只有一点可以肯定,日元贬值对日本企业的好处是一定不会变的。
站内搜索:

TAG: 货币市场 日本

引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-10-20 19:47:45
Accountable, that means producing the  <a href="http://www.eaglesstoreonline.com/Black-73-Isaac-Seumalo-Womens-Jersey/">Isaac Seumalo Eagles Jersey</a> actual checks from a forex acco <a href="http://www.eaglesstoreonline.com/Customized/">Customized Eagles Jerseys</a> unt that amounted to THEM cash.Cranberry juice that is unsweetened should be consumed,Isaac Seumalo Eagles Jersey. Failing is learning.CLICK HERE TO WATCH THE LATEST EPISODEPrevious episode “Homecoming”,Cus <a href="http://www.eaglesstoreonline.com/Black-20-Brian-Dawkins-Womens-Jersey/">Brian Dawkins Eagles Jersey</a> tomized Eagles Jerseys;In
引用 删除 防弹少年团啊   /   2018-10-20 07:15:29
"It's always a possibilit <a href="http://www.arsenalshopuk.com/">Arsenal Fc Away Kit</a> y but I don't like to really go there as my option,Arsenal Fc Away Kit," McKenzie said of the franchise tag. "I would like to negotiate a deal. You don't want to use (the tag). Hopefully we wouldn't need to."
引用 删除 防弹少年团啊   /   2018-10-18 09:42:08
Goldson was penalized for unnece <a href="http://www.schuhenikeschweiz.com/">Nike Schuhe Neu Herren</a> ssary roughness for his hit on a defenseless receiver, Roddy White,Nike Schuhe Neu Herren, against Atlanta on Sunday. It was Goldson's third such violation this season.BASEBALL
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-10-18 09:20:29
Think of all the others who've suffered failure like you and who have bounced <a href="http://www.footballfalconsauthentic.com/women-takkarist-mckinley-jersey/">Takkarist McKinley Authentic Jersey</a>  back on to th <a href="http://www.footballfalconsauthentic.com/women-ito-smith-jersey/">Ito Smith Jersey</a> eir feet.Author's Resource BoxTom Martens is the content syndication coordinator for South Aricas leading Flight comparison portal, which includes SAA amongst others.14 Interestingly,Takkarist McKinley Authen <a href="http://www.footballfalconsauthentic.com/women-ito-smith-jersey/">Ito Smith Falcons Jersey</a> t
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2018-10-17 15:27:34
(Xinhua/Guo Chen)    <a href="http://www.thenflpanthersshoponline.com/T-Shirts/">Cheap Panthers T-Shirts</a> People interact with an intelligent voice robot during t <a href="http://www.thenflpanthersshoponline.com/Youth-James-Bradberry-Panthers-Jersey/">anthers James Bradberry Jersey</a> he 1024 Global Developer Festival in Hefei,Cheap Panthers T-Shirts, capital of east China's Anhui Province,Panthers James Bradberry Jersey, Oct. There a <a href="http://www.thenflpanthersshoponline.com/Youth-Christian-McCaffrey-Panthers-Jersey/">Christian McCaffrey Jersey</a> re many herbs which have been used since time immemorial to eradicate pr
引用 删除 防弹少年团啊   /   2018-10-13 10:32:16
Over the last four seasons, Pittsburgh ranks 23rd in 100-yard <a href="http://www.cheapairmax2019.us.com/">Cheap Air Max 2019 Sale</a>  rushing games according to STATS LLC,Cheap Air Max 2019 Sale, having a back top the century mark just 12 times. That's not exactly Steelers football. That's more like flag football.The nadir came in 2012, when the Steelers finished 26th i
引用 删除 防弹少年团啊   /   2018-10-13 03:13:22
2007 鈥?Kobe Bryant becomes the fourth player in NBA history to sco <a href="http://www.manchestercitystoreuk.com/">Manchester City Store UK</a> re at least 50 points in three straight games. Bryant scores 60 points in the Los Angeles Lakers' 121-119 win over Memphis. Bryant joins Elgin Baylor,Manchester City Store UK, Wilt Chamberlain and Michael Jordan.2007 鈥?Brian Joubert i
引用 删除 防弹少年团啊   /   2018-10-11 16:46:34
Notes: Finley was placed on injured reserve Tuesda <a href="http://www.airjordanpascherfrance.fr/basket-jordan-junior-pas-cher.html">Basket Jordan Junior Pas Cher</a> y, officially ending his season. Finley, a free agent after this season, has said he plans to play again. "The medical decision made for Jermichael was in the best interest of him as a man, as a father, as a husband. This wasn't about football, we we
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-10-10 00:16:12
Laos now has only 3. In c <a href="http://www.laramsfansprostore.com/Black-Josh-Reynolds-Rams-Jersey.html?cat=967">Authentic Josh Reynolds Jersey</a> ase you present your prospe <a href="http://www.laramsfansprostore.com/Black-Cooper-Kupp-Rams-Jersey.html?cat=965">Cooper Kupp Jersey</a> cts just how much they can conserve within taxes by buying small business it will sway their particular determination along with rapidly get over the amount of money argument,Authentic Josh Reynolds Jersey. 4. Not to menti <a href="http://www.laramsfansprostore.com/Black-Todd-Gurley-Rams-Jersey.html?cat=874">Todd Gurley II Black Jersey</a> on for those of you who ar
引用 删除 shekplos9t   /   2018-10-09 23:25:35
"There are the pathway <a href="http://www.cheapnfljerseyssports.us.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys China</a> s that encode prior knowledge and experience, which we call 'crystalli <a href="http://www.cheapnfljerseyssports.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys</a> zed intelligence.A professional in the soccer handicapping with Asian Handicap and 1x2 Fixed odds.The team will play Cheap NFL Jerseys China a friendly match <a href="http://www.cheapnfljerseyssports.us.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys China Free Shipping</a>  on January 31 against a Zimbabwe select side.To sa
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-10-09 13:27:24
Weight loss is something you only  <a href="http://www.pharrellwilliamshu.fr/homme-adidas-futurecraft-4d-ash-vert-core-noir-pas-cher.html">Homme Adidas Futurecraft 4D Ash Vert Core Noir Pas Cher</a> want to have for nat <a href="http://www.pharrellwilliamshu.fr/adidas-prophere.html">Adidas Prophere Pas Cher</a> ural and healthy reasons. In order to achieve success inside Multi level marketing signing up and receiving people signed up you should tell them you do have an advertising process or perhaps education that can h <a href="http://www.pharrellwilliamshu.fr/adidas-nmd-pas-cher/adidas-nmd-human-race.html">Adidas NMD Human Race Pas Cher</a> elp these assemble their small bus
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-10-09 08:56:28
T <a href="http://www.salecheapjerseys.us.com/">NFL Jerseys China Cheap</a> he Youth Ministries Department of First Assembly of God (FAOG), Wortma <a href="http://www.cheapjerseysshop.us.com/">Jerseys NFL China</a> nville, will be hosting its annual Gospel Fest under the theme, “The Rising.”Over the years,NFL Jerseys China Cheap, Gospel  <a href="http://www.fcbarcelonatienda.es/">Camisetas Fc Barcelona Baratas</a> Fest has been used as an avenue to promote local talent and to provide a stage that has taken local artis
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2018-10-09 05:55:50
"As to whether that would result in the bill being passed, it's probably a b <a href="http://www.buccaneersfansprostore.com/Black-Chris-Godwin-Buccaneers-Jersey.html?cat=967">Authentic Chris Godwin Jersey</a> it early to say because the <a href="http://www.buccaneersfansprostore.com/Black-Mike-Alstott-Buccaneers-Jersey.html?cat=862">Authentic Mike Alstott Jersey</a>  new parliament, there's a lot of new members," he said, with the government only being elected in September. dollars) provided by Thailand was spent on this work, of which 30 percent was given as <a href="http://www.buccaneersfansprostore.com/Black-Lavonte-David-Buccaneers-Jersey.html?cat=885">Lavonte David Jersey</a>
引用 删除 防弹少年团啊   /   2018-10-09 05:23:41
With returner and receiver Damian Williams hurting his hip, the  <a href="http://www.wholesalejerseysenjoy.us.com/">Wholesale Jerseys</a> Titans promoted Wylie. Wylie played six games with Kansas City last season,Wholesale Jerseys, and the receiver from Fresno State returned nine kickoffs for an average of 21.2 yards and averaged 5.2 yards on five punt returns. He was in
引用 删除 shekplos9t   /   2018-10-08 17:13:39
The Leader of t <a href="http://www.cheapnfljerseysshopwholesale.us.com/">Cheap Authentic NFL Jerseys</a> he House of Commons, Andrea Leadsom has  <a href="http://www.cheapnfljerseysshopwholesale.us.com/">Cheap Wholesale Jerseys</a> called for action over the issue within days rather than weeks.A free fall from the plane whilst tied through an experience  <a href="http://www.cheapnfljerseysshopwholesale.us.com/">Wholesale Jerseys</a> skydiver is the best way to get accelerated freefall without spending hours on pretraining and instruction classes."We wa
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-10-08 15:52:43
Mark Anthony August Annandale electrocution… An Annandale R <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseysshop.us.com/">Jerseys Wholesale</a> ail <a href="http://www.chinanflcheapjerseys.us.com/">Wholesale Jerseys Free Shipping</a> way Embankment resident is to face a manslaughter charge, which stems from last Sunday’s electrocution of eight-year-old Mark Anthony August.The charge was instituted against the man, on whose hous <a href="http://www.cheapjerseysleague.us.com/">Cheap Nike NFL Jerseys</a> e the wire which caused August’s death wa
引用 删除 防弹少年团啊   /   2018-10-08 09:47:37
It <a href="http://www.nflchinajerseys.us.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys China</a>  could take weeks for the report to be completed,Cheap NFL Jerseys China, the medical examiner said.The Hayes family went to the overpass earlier this week, trying to piece together what happened.
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-10-07 13:03:46
The Mini <a href="http://www.cheapchinawholesalejerseys.us.com/">Wholesale China Jerseys</a> stry of Public  <a href="http://www.chinajerseysshop.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys China</a> Infrastructure has begun a Sustainable Urban Transport study for the Capital City of Georgetown. According to Chief  <a href="http://www.authenticchinajerseyswholesale.us.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys</a> Transport Planning Officer at the Ministry Patrick Thompson,Wholesale China Jerseys, the project will be undertaken by two companies, Logit Consulting of Brazil
引用 删除 防弹少年团啊   /   2018-10-07 10:43:22
"He has the ability to t <a href="http://www.nflchinajerseyswholesale.us.com/">China Jerseys For Sale</a> ake off when necessary,China Jerseys For Sale, but he wants to throw the ball," Titans cornerback Jason McCourty said.Added safety Bernard Pollard: "I see a lot of poise in him. I see a guy that's able to deliver the ball. I haven't seen him throw every route, but at the end
引用 删除 防弹少年团啊   /   2018-10-06 19:18:06
Detroit was in a similar position midw <a href="http://www.wholesalechinajerseysstore.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys</a> ay through last season, but it turned a .500 record turned into a 4-12 mark with an eight-game losing streak that made the franchise's appearance in the 2011 playoffs look like a fluke.The Lions desperately want to get back to the postseason,Cheap Jerseys, and m
 

评分:0

我来说两句

显示全部

:loveliness: :handshake :victory: :funk: :time: :kiss: :call: :hug: :lol :'( :Q :L ;P :$ :P :o :@ :D :( :)

日历

« 2018-10-20  
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28293031   

数据统计

  • 访问量: 121142
  • 日志数: 920
  • 建立时间: 2007-08-16
  • 更新时间: 2013-08-15

RSS订阅

Open Toolbar