叶檀:日本资本与货币市场动荡不休 它比美国信用差远了

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日本资本与货币市场动荡不休。邯郸学步的安倍经济学暴露出,日元信用比美元差得太远。

 

528日,日经指数上涨之前三天,日经指数连跌三天。523日,日经指数重挫7.3%,创20113月日本大震灾以来的单日最大跌幅。安倍经济学刺激日本股市大涨,日经指数在今年年内已经上涨50.3%,仅5月之内就有12.7%的涨幅。

 

日本国债价格起伏不定。2013年第一周,日本十年期国债收益率从去年12月初的低点0.69%反弹至接近0.85%4月初又大降至0.44%,在日本股市大跌后又反弹至1.0%12个月高点。丰田不得不取消200亿日元的发债计划。

 

克鲁格曼说,别紧张,这是市场暂时筋挛,没道理可讲。日本央行总裁黑田东彦称,由于市场看好复苏以及通胀预期,导致日本国债收益率上升,与债务危机无关。

 

虚浮的安慰没有办法缓解投资者的紧张情绪,日本债券价格形象地反映出,日本不具备像美国一样的信用实力。

 

金融危机之后,美国实行量化宽松货币政策至今,作为市场基准风向标之一的美国十年期国债收益率便在低位徘徊,其特点是,风险越高时收益率越低,风险较低时收益率反而上升。

 

去年61日,美国劳工部公布的就业数据不及预期,加上南欧债务危机加深,使得美国十年期国债收益率早盘有史以来首次降至1.5%以下。而当美国经济数据好转、欧债危机暂时缓解时,美国国债收益率就有回升趋势。今年528号,在美国公布了一连串令人振奋的经济数据后,美国10年期国债收益率刷新年内高位,逼近2.09%

 

日本则相反。宽松货币的预期使国际投资者开始追逐日本股市,并没有实在的业绩支撑,日经指数从201111月一路上升到15942的高位,而后在今年528下落收盘于14311点。短期投资者对日本经济复苏没有坚定的信心,而忙于收割羊毛,以免夜长梦多。与此同时,日本国债大幅波动,51日发行的十年期国债收益率为0.597%,528号发行二十年期国债收益率为1.680%,并不算高,但收益率波动却成为高负债国日本的心腹大患。

 

日本陷于股市与债券两难境地,如果股市大涨而债券价格下跌,对于日本财政与企业债券融资绝不是什么好消息;如果日本股市大跌而债券价格上涨,无法鼓励投资者对日本企业的信心;最糟糕的是,股市债市下跌,而日元上升,那对于日本而言是致命打击。

 

按照日本财务省公布的数据,2012年日本岁入90.3兆亿日元,其中公债收入为44.2兆亿日元,近半收入来自发债,即使利率低下,去年一年的债务支出费用也高达21.9兆亿日元。国家及地方长期债务总额高达940兆亿日元,占GDP196%。对于日本来说,最好的情况莫过于在日元大幅贬值的同时,仍能够维持日债的高价,以降低财务成本,获得全球通胀税。

 

日本不是美国,日债不能与美债攀比。美国是全球使用量最大的货币,美债是全球投资者最后的避险圣地,因此,在美国、欧洲出现经济危机时,美债的价格就大幅窜升,美国大量发行货币依然能够收取全球铸币税,这是由美国货币的实力加各种威胁所决定的。

 

日元最初在美国及西方世界的逼迫下一路上升,而后因为全球债务危机,因为日本人储蓄买债的习惯、因为日本的实体经济紧缩,成为全球最重要的避险货币。这与日本经济是否强盛一毛钱关系也没有,就如目前人民币大幅升值是外在压力的结果,也是中国手中握有过多外汇储备的结果。

 

鉴于日元使用范围不广,日本经济越糟日元使用范围越窄,日本也不可能有什么全球的通胀税。

 

截至去年12月底,外国投资者持有的短期和长期日本国债余额为84万亿日元,占日本960万亿日元已发行国债的8.7%,比去年9月底的纪录高点9.1%有所下降。日本央行的通胀税主要收到了本国人头上。倒是最近龃龉不断的中国增持了日本国债。截至2012年底,中国对日本债券的持有量达到20万亿日元,同比增加14%,仍是日本最大的债权国。

 

        日本可以继续实行量化宽松货币政策,但日本股市与债市的跷跷板维持平衡越来越困难,最终恐怕会像以往一样,无疾而终。只有一点可以肯定,日元贬值对日本企业的好处是一定不会变的。
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