华尔街一直在看跌期权中高歌猛进

上一篇 / 下一篇  2013-08-13 16:40:16 / 精华(3) / 置顶(1)


华尔街一直在看跌期权中高歌猛进。

 

2008金融危机为标志,前有格林斯潘看跌期权,后有伯南克看跌期权,指在经济下行、资本货币市场出现危机时释放大量货币救市。有意思的是,正是因为格林斯潘看跌期权的存在,人们希望伯南克以新一轮看跌期权补救泡沫除去后的空洞。

 

现在,华尔街又造出李克强看跌期权这一新词,解释中国维持7.5%经济增速的原因。

 

国际投资者面对中国经济下行一筹莫展,他们逐渐撤出中国金融、商业、资源等高风险行业,尤其是澳大利亚、巴西等上游资源出口国,配合中国投资扩张政策经济高速扩张。澳元几乎跟随中国投资而走,2008年金融危机前,澳元兑美元一路上涨,之后极度疲软,2009年以后再次跟随中国大规模投资上涨,直到2012年进入震荡走势,2013年随着中国经济下行再度下挫。澳元对中国投资的敏感度,超过了中国境内股票市场。

 

华尔街有些投行认为中国不可能让泡沫破裂,不得不维持投资规模,因此推出李克强看跌期权概念。但完成既有投资,不等于大规模发钞刺激经济。

 

中国不可能推出大规模经济刺激政策,那等于宣判中国经济未来死刑。大规模刺激国有经济使得经济效率大幅下降,造成了地方政府高达十几亿的负债。目前惟一能够大规模以溢价兑换的资产只剩下房地产,如果继续发钞推高房地产溢价,一旦泡沫崩溃,就失去了所有的溢价资产。从一系列的具体案例看,有门路的企业与个人从银行套取平价资金,而后向社会注入高利贷,一系列资金中介环节使资金成本高到15%左右,扼住了中小企业的咽喉。继续刺激经济,除了让中国经济提前进入衰老期,没有好处。

 

中国不可能大规模发行货币,中国广义货币发行量全球第一,几乎两倍于GDP的规模。以往银行发行货币主要靠外汇占款,以及政策性再贷款,现在人民币汇率忽高忽低、出口大幅下降,外汇占款直线下降,央行增加基础货币的主要通道被封堵,增加债券购买成为主要渠道,而中国的债券市场基本上是银行系统内部循环的封闭市场,定价不准确,信用体制不健全,让央行与美联储一样通过购买国债发放基础货币,很有可能是财政与央行成为政府的大出纳与小出纳,债务在体制内堆积,风险无法释放,无法为信用定价。

 

从资本与货币市场看,货币大量发放与投放效率低下,催生了银行庞大的表外资产,地下金融暗流涌动,最重要的是产生了世界规模最大的房地产泡沫,6月央行不向银行间市场注入流动性,多货币下的钱荒悖论,显示出大量的资金催生出恶性高负债,债权背后缺乏收益支撑,形同垃圾债。

 

大规模经济刺激、大规模发放货币在中国已经是过去式,大幅度增长的十年不会再现。这并不等于政府对高负债袖手旁观,任由现有建到一半的基础设施变成废铜烂铁,7月与8月央行进行逆回购注入流动性,政府希望民资进入城市管道、铁路等基本建设领域,民资置换出政府投资,目的是在不扩大政府与银行负债的前提下,完成基础设施建设,提高建设效率。转型与维持稳定不等于大规模投资,提出李克强看跌期权,是资本与货币市场诱多的老花招,比“金砖四国”之后的“维他命十国”更不靠谱。

 

金融危机之后,看跌期权已经有了新概念。伯南克看跌期权与格林斯潘看跌期权不同,格氏处于经济疯狂增长的好时机,一味注入货币之水,没等泡沫崩溃从美联储主席离任。而伯南克在经济稍有好转后,就放风可能逐步退出量化宽松的货币政策,并且美国监管部门秋后算帐,对于2008年之前的摩根大通、对冲基金等涉嫌内幕交易一一清算,提升未来金融市场风险的可控度。

 

长期的转型已拉开序幕,即使中国政府想刺激,也已无力刺激。上一任政府为了对冲风险,被迫进行大规模刺激政策,如今遭遇严峻挑战甚至被视为中国经济失衡的罪人,没有人会愿意在表面上继续正派经济。

 

        中国经济改革、结构调整迫在眉睫,经济保持在7.5%左右,只是为改革腾出空间,以免改革未成先成仁。中国不存在大规模刺激经济的可能,也就不存在李克强看跌期权
站内搜索:

TAG:

引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-08-21 20:48:14
Some contractors and crew will stop working on project if they a <a href="http://www.footballchiefsauthentic.com/women-mitch-morse-jersey/">Chiefs Mitch Morse Jersey</a> re not paid by the deadline.You can increase your workout routine <a href="http://www.footballchiefsauthentic.com/women-patrick-mahomes-ii-jersey/">Chiefs Patrick Mahomes II Jersey</a> s efficiently by learning how to manage your breathing properly. Act like you have a boss watching your every move,Chiefs Mitch Morse Jersey, and whatever you do, don’t b <a href="http://www.footballchiefsauthentic.com/women-justin-houston-jersey/">Justin Houston Authentic Jersey</a> e
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-08-21 18:18:10
George Campus now makes it possible to earn a Computer Prog <a href="http://www.authenticvikingsgear.com/hoodie/">Authentic Vikings Hoodie</a> ramming Degree. F <a href="http://www.authenticvikingsgear.com/women-latavius-murray-jersey/">Latavius Murray Jersey</a> or others,Authentic Vikings Hoodie, it truly is simply an easy method of phrasea method to announce their presence to the world. The motivations individuals have for labeling vary. K <a href="http://www.authenticvikingsgear.com/women-mackensie-alexander-jersey/">Vikings Mackensie Alexander Jersey</a> eep in mind, the likelihood of being decei
引用 删除 shekplos4x   /   2017-08-21 10:13:43
The availability factor is never a big thing t <a href="http://www.thenflshopuk.com/Los-Angeles-Rams-Tj-Mcdonald-Jersey/">T.J. McDonald Jersey UK</a> o thin <a href="http://www.thenflshopuk.com/Buffalo-Bills-Tyrod-Taylor-Jersey/">Tyrod Taylor Jersey UK</a> k about. It also has sedative capabilities for more information on facilitate assist the fall asleep all over the both a young child and adults. The most apparent 1st advantage is that you are not constrain <a href="http://www.thenflshopuk.com/New-England-Patriots-Julian-Edelman-Jersey/">Julian Edelman Jersey UK</a> ed by geography. These days, you can find
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2017-08-21 09:41:22
When you have boue <a href="http://www.themexicosoccerstore.com/nestor-araujo-world-cup-jersey.html">Authentic Nestor Araujo Jersey</a> ux getting fit,Authentic Nestor Araujo Je <a href="http://www.themexicosoccerstore.com/gerardo-flores-world-cup-jersey.html">Replica Gerardo Flores Jersey</a> rsey, the tips in the following paragraphs may help you.If day permits, physical exercise outside.Develop air and heating contractor safety management guidelines if nece <a href="http://www.themexicosoccerstore.com/hugo-ayala-world-cup-jersey.html">Authentic Hugo Ayala Jersey</a> ssary. Make sure that you highlight the benefits of the products offered
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-08-20 07:20:59
The best method to know your online operating <a href="http://www.teamhornetsshop.com/Percy-Miller-Jersey/">ercy Miller Jersey</a>  niche is to have an honest assessment of yourself, your strengths a <a href="http://www.teamhornetsshop.com/Miles-Plumlee-Jersey/">Miles Plumlee Authentic Jersey</a> nd weaknesses.Check needed documents of your service provider and confirms that it really reflects your requirements: Capturing needs does not just involve t <a href="http://www.teamhornetsshop.com/Brian-Roberts-Jersey/">Cheap Brian Roberts Jersey</a> he workings of the application
引用 删除 shekplos4x   /   2017-08-19 13:22:09
Does y <a href="http://www.footballshopnfl.com/cincinnati-bengals-anthony-munoz-jersey-sale/">Anthony Munoz Jersey</a> o <a href="http://www.footballshopnfl.com/philadelphia-eagles-jordan-hicks-jersey-sale/">Jordan Hicks Jersey</a> ur Laptop or computer enjoy uncommon appears or songs at random occasions? elimination adware spy ware elimination absolutely free adware free of charge  <a href="http://www.footballshopnfl.com/chicago-bears-charles-leno-jersey-sale/">Charles Leno Jersey</a> elimination of adware adware elimination utility free of charge cost free adware spyware removing resource adware removing no cost . Does yo
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-08-19 06:45:05
All sorts of digital and non digital tresses arehandled by having an ease. When <a href="http://www.baseballmarlinslockroom.com/ichiro-suzuki-marlins-jersey/">Ichiro Suzuki FlexBase Jersey</a>  talking about k <a href="http://www.baseballmarlinslockroom.com/dee-gordon-marlins-jersey/">Authentic Dee Gordon Jersey</a> eeping your brand relevant,Ichiro Suzuki FlexBase Jersey, staying active on social media is a must.As all wise small business owners know, there is a fine line that exists between being self employed  <a href="http://www.baseballmarlinslockroom.com/jose-fernandez-marlins-jersey/">Jose Fernandez Jersey</a> and b
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2017-08-19 04:58:01
4. Make sure that taxes are handled appropriately as well <a href="http://www.footballtitansfanatics.com/women-adoree-jackson-jersey/">Adoree' Jackson Authentic Jersey</a> . Your web marketing busi <a href="http://www.footballtitansfanatics.com/women-corey-davis-jersey/">Corey Davis Jersey</a> ness is your job, and you need to treat it that way. The feel is fantastic plus clubbed along with being with your acquaintances possibly will undoubtedly assist you in the direction of set the get together s <a href="http://www.footballtitansfanatics.com/women-corey-davis-jersey/">Titans Corey Davis Jersey</a> tep lying
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-08-18 22:25:30
You will be able to enjoy the amenities of Los <a href="http://www.buccaneersfansprostore.com/Black-Mike-Evans-Buccaneers-Jersey.html?cat=864">Mike Evans Womens Jersey</a>  Angeles  <a href="http://www.buccaneersfansprostore.com/Black-Donovan-Smith-Buccaneers-Jersey.html?cat=867">Buccaneers Donovan Smith Jersey</a> party buses with your loved ones on the most special day of your life, showing your appreciation for their attendance and your love for fun at the same time. This stuff not only offer glorious workouts,Mike Evans Womens Jersey, additionally <a href="http://www.buccaneersfansprostore.com/Black-Doug-Martin-Buccaneers-Jersey.html?cat=887">Doug Martin Womens Jersey</a>  they
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-08-18 07:50:02
There are lots of interesting gifts that y <a href="http://www.nbawarriorsshop.com/Andre-Iguodala-Jersey/">Andre Iguodala Warriors Jersey</a> ou can buy in the Internet nowadays,Andre Igu <a href="http://www.nbawarriorsshop.com/Damian-Jones-Jersey/">Authentic Damian Jones Jersey</a> odala Warriors Jersey, so searching for the best gift to buy isn't really a challenge. Network along with other business people just like yoursel <a href="http://www.nbawarriorsshop.com/Carl-Landry-Jersey/">Carl Landry Warriors Jersey</a> f who can connect you with the skills, resources, and personal conne
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2017-08-18 00:52:42
This will allow you to s <a href="http://www.thetexansshoponline.com/Youth-Will-Fuller-V-Texans-Jersey/">Will Fuller V Jersey</a> pend masses of happy times with each other <a href="http://www.thetexansshoponline.com/Youth-Zach-Cunningham-Texans-Jersey/">Texans Zach Cunningham Jersey</a> . However, best credit repair companies suggest that a real move could only make the first debt be paid after a long period of time.Wrong Publicity of banah sugarbanah Sugar   Subm <a href="http://www.thetexansshoponline.com/Youth-Cecil-Shorts-III-Texans-Jersey">Authentic Cecil Shorts III Jersey</a> itted 20140214 09:44:05 MIAMI  Who'd have guessed a la
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-08-17 13:16:11
Meals hypersensitivity will be the explanation that distinct business enterpr <a href="http://www.teamrockiesshop.com/Black-Carlos-Gonzalez-Womens-Jersey/">Carlos Gonzalez Womens Jersey</a> ise adve <a href="http://www.teamrockiesshop.com/Black-Nolan-Arenado-Womens-Jersey/">Nolan Arenado Rockies Jersey</a> rse responses to know additional about fda possibly an all in a single food stuff intolerance,for the basis of way obtaining to do with the acute beginning concerning allergies happening within a few minutes to kno <a href="http://www.teamrockiesshop.com/Black-Gerardo-Parra-Womens-Jersey/">Gerardo Parra Rockies Jersey</a> w
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-08-17 10:29:56
For example, if <a href="http://www.shoptheofficialredskins.com/Elite-Doug-Williams-Redskins-Jersey/">Doug Williams Redskins Jersey</a>  a large number of reviews you examine sta <a href="http://www.shoptheofficialredskins.com/Elite-Mason-Foster-Redskins-Jersey/">Mason Foster Elite Jersey</a> te that their table has had difficulties with the remaining stand, and you then have a decent indicator your table may have exactly the same problem.But on Friday,Doug Williams Re <a href="http://www.shoptheofficialredskins.com/Elite-Dexter-Manley-Redskins-Jersey/">Authentic Dexter Manley Jersey</a> dskins Jersey, Banah reported in Chapter 11 filings that it owes
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-08-17 07:46:49
Click h <a href="http://www.nhldevilsjerseysshop.com/adam-henrique-hockey-jersey/">Adam Henrique Womens Jersey</a> ere to know more about inversion table review. Click here to know more about <a href="http://www.nhldevilsjerseysshop.com/cory-schneider-hockey-jersey/">Cory Schneider Devils Jersey</a>  inversion table review. This will help you look for a responsible organisation. They tried ones and stuck their faith in the collection. You pay them a flat rate and  <a href="http://www.nhldevilsjerseysshop.com/scott-stevens-hockey-jersey/">Scott Stevens Devils Jersey</a> every time someone clicks on your advertisement yo
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-08-17 06:31:12
(Only my estimation)An individual can find info  <a href="http://www.hockeykingsshoponline.com/authentic-marty-mcsorley-kings-jersey-sale/">Marty Mcsorley Authentic Jersey</a> on virtually a <a href="http://www.hockeykingsshoponline.com/authentic-luc-robitaille-kings-jersey-sale/">Luc Robitaille Authentic Jersey</a> ny flight online or even phone a travel agent as well as the TSA. Not long ago,Marty Mcsorley Authentic Jersey, this iPhone 5 was unveiled.Learn to Retweet. Stainless appliances are the most common nowadays and may be easily purchased in <a href="http://www.hockeykingsshoponline.com/authentic-alec-martinez-kings-jersey-sale/">Kings Alec Martinez Jersey</a>
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2017-08-17 04:08:54
<a href="http://www.thesaintsshoponline.com/Youth-Joe-Morgan-Saints-Jersey/">Joe Morgan Youth Jersey</a> Tak <a href="http://www.thesaintsshoponline.com/Youth-Kai-Forbath-Saints-Jersey/">Authentic Kai Forbath Jersey</a> e slow, careful steps if you are wading through a brook. In case you have a damaged and even ruined iPhone, you need to have the application revamped asap. It is not for specia <a href="http://www.thesaintsshoponline.com/Youth-Jamarca-Sanford-Saints-Jersey/">New Orleans Saints Jamarca Sanford Jersey</a> l people only. Normally, it is best to learn that the step to paying off all debts is usually to start paying out them an
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2017-08-17 03:10:01
You can check out the points mentioned below about why professiona <a href="http://www.teambucksstore.com/womens-thon-maker-basketball-jersey/">Bucks Thon Maker Jersey</a> l house cleaning services are a mus <a href="http://www.teambucksstore.com/womens-john-henson-basketball-jersey/">Authentic John Henson Jersey</a> t:You dont have to spend money on cleaning supplies:Cleaning supplies are usually purchased in bulk, and some of them are rarely used after some time. Normally, it is best to learn that the step to  <a href="http://www.teambucksstore.com/womens-khris-middleton-basketball-jersey/">Bucks Khris Middleton Jersey</a> p
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2017-08-17 01:42:17
(Only my estimation)An indiv <a href="http://www.saintsfanaticstore.com/authentic-andrus-peat-saints-jersey/">Andrus Peat Womens Jersey</a> idual can find info on virtuall <a href="http://www.saintsfanaticstore.com/authentic-adrian-peterson-saints-jersey/">Adrian Peterson Jersey</a> y any flight online or even phone a travel agent as well as the TSA. Children need limits and instruction, but simply being too strict and rigid in every area can go away them emotion mashed and stifl <a href="http://www.saintsfanaticstore.com/authentic-craig-robertson-saints-jersey/">Authentic Craig Robertson Jersey</a> ed.For illustration,Andrus Peat Womens Je
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-08-17 01:42:00
It is the one most essential aspect in influencing purc <a href="http://www.saintsfanaticstore.com/authentic-andrus-peat-saints-jersey/">Andrus Peat Jersey</a> hasers.Use caution  <a href="http://www.saintsfanaticstore.com/authentic-clay-harbor-saints-jersey/">Clay Harbor Womens Jersey</a> when wading through water. Other ways to help heal your spine contain regular exercise, appropriate sitting strategies,Andrus Peat Jersey, proper twisting, or losing weight. It is because, the  <a href="http://www.saintsfanaticstore.com/authentic-alvin-kamara-saints-jersey/">Alvin Kamara Kids Jersey</a> experience of the company you wan
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-08-17 01:16:32
As a mother,Mitch Richmond Warriors Jersey, you dont g <a href="http://www.nbawarriorsshop.com/Mitch-Richmond-Jersey/">Mitch Richmond Warriors Jersey</a> et enough time to clean your home, because your kid is too young to stay alon <a href="http://www.nbawarriorsshop.com/Mitch-Richmond-Jersey/">Cheap Mitch Richmond Jersey</a> e or you work for a 12hour job, and at end of the day all you can do is take rest. From the other standpoint,Cheap Mitch Richmond Jersey, clear waters and bright days a <a href="http://www.nbawarriorsshop.com/Chris-Mullin-Jersey/">Cheap Chris Mullin Jersey</a> r
 

评分:0

我来说两句

显示全部

:loveliness: :handshake :victory: :funk: :time: :kiss: :call: :hug: :lol :'( :Q :L ;P :$ :P :o :@ :D :( :)

日历

« 2017-08-21  
  12345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
2728293031  

数据统计

  • 访问量: 118929
  • 日志数: 920
  • 建立时间: 2007-08-16
  • 更新时间: 2013-08-15

RSS订阅

Open Toolbar