华尔街一直在看跌期权中高歌猛进

上一篇 / 下一篇  2013-08-13 16:40:16 / 精华(3) / 置顶(1)


华尔街一直在看跌期权中高歌猛进。

 

2008金融危机为标志,前有格林斯潘看跌期权,后有伯南克看跌期权,指在经济下行、资本货币市场出现危机时释放大量货币救市。有意思的是,正是因为格林斯潘看跌期权的存在,人们希望伯南克以新一轮看跌期权补救泡沫除去后的空洞。

 

现在,华尔街又造出李克强看跌期权这一新词,解释中国维持7.5%经济增速的原因。

 

国际投资者面对中国经济下行一筹莫展,他们逐渐撤出中国金融、商业、资源等高风险行业,尤其是澳大利亚、巴西等上游资源出口国,配合中国投资扩张政策经济高速扩张。澳元几乎跟随中国投资而走,2008年金融危机前,澳元兑美元一路上涨,之后极度疲软,2009年以后再次跟随中国大规模投资上涨,直到2012年进入震荡走势,2013年随着中国经济下行再度下挫。澳元对中国投资的敏感度,超过了中国境内股票市场。

 

华尔街有些投行认为中国不可能让泡沫破裂,不得不维持投资规模,因此推出李克强看跌期权概念。但完成既有投资,不等于大规模发钞刺激经济。

 

中国不可能推出大规模经济刺激政策,那等于宣判中国经济未来死刑。大规模刺激国有经济使得经济效率大幅下降,造成了地方政府高达十几亿的负债。目前惟一能够大规模以溢价兑换的资产只剩下房地产,如果继续发钞推高房地产溢价,一旦泡沫崩溃,就失去了所有的溢价资产。从一系列的具体案例看,有门路的企业与个人从银行套取平价资金,而后向社会注入高利贷,一系列资金中介环节使资金成本高到15%左右,扼住了中小企业的咽喉。继续刺激经济,除了让中国经济提前进入衰老期,没有好处。

 

中国不可能大规模发行货币,中国广义货币发行量全球第一,几乎两倍于GDP的规模。以往银行发行货币主要靠外汇占款,以及政策性再贷款,现在人民币汇率忽高忽低、出口大幅下降,外汇占款直线下降,央行增加基础货币的主要通道被封堵,增加债券购买成为主要渠道,而中国的债券市场基本上是银行系统内部循环的封闭市场,定价不准确,信用体制不健全,让央行与美联储一样通过购买国债发放基础货币,很有可能是财政与央行成为政府的大出纳与小出纳,债务在体制内堆积,风险无法释放,无法为信用定价。

 

从资本与货币市场看,货币大量发放与投放效率低下,催生了银行庞大的表外资产,地下金融暗流涌动,最重要的是产生了世界规模最大的房地产泡沫,6月央行不向银行间市场注入流动性,多货币下的钱荒悖论,显示出大量的资金催生出恶性高负债,债权背后缺乏收益支撑,形同垃圾债。

 

大规模经济刺激、大规模发放货币在中国已经是过去式,大幅度增长的十年不会再现。这并不等于政府对高负债袖手旁观,任由现有建到一半的基础设施变成废铜烂铁,7月与8月央行进行逆回购注入流动性,政府希望民资进入城市管道、铁路等基本建设领域,民资置换出政府投资,目的是在不扩大政府与银行负债的前提下,完成基础设施建设,提高建设效率。转型与维持稳定不等于大规模投资,提出李克强看跌期权,是资本与货币市场诱多的老花招,比“金砖四国”之后的“维他命十国”更不靠谱。

 

金融危机之后,看跌期权已经有了新概念。伯南克看跌期权与格林斯潘看跌期权不同,格氏处于经济疯狂增长的好时机,一味注入货币之水,没等泡沫崩溃从美联储主席离任。而伯南克在经济稍有好转后,就放风可能逐步退出量化宽松的货币政策,并且美国监管部门秋后算帐,对于2008年之前的摩根大通、对冲基金等涉嫌内幕交易一一清算,提升未来金融市场风险的可控度。

 

长期的转型已拉开序幕,即使中国政府想刺激,也已无力刺激。上一任政府为了对冲风险,被迫进行大规模刺激政策,如今遭遇严峻挑战甚至被视为中国经济失衡的罪人,没有人会愿意在表面上继续正派经济。

 

        中国经济改革、结构调整迫在眉睫,经济保持在7.5%左右,只是为改革腾出空间,以免改革未成先成仁。中国不存在大规模刺激经济的可能,也就不存在李克强看跌期权
站内搜索:

TAG:

引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-16 07:02:38
Dominguez said the "Build,air max 97 ireland, <a href="http://www.cheapmax90ireland.com/nike-air-max-cheap-sale/nike-air-max-97.html">air max 97 ireland</a>  Build,cheap nike air max 90 ireland, Build" program will  <a href="http://www.cheapmax90ireland.com/cheapest-nike-air-max-90.html">cheap nike air max 90 ireland</a> be funded by a combination of resources from its proposed comprehensive tax reform program, foreign development aid and commercial loans."In two steps probably.The HP Photosmart 7510 eAllinOne ink <a href="http://www.cheapmax90ireland.com/cheapest-nike-air-max-90.html">nike air max 90 ireland</a>
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2018-08-16 03:45:02
And just because plus size girls may just be somewhat hippy and  <a href="http://www.footballjetsonline.com/women-sam-darnold-jersey/">Sam Darnold Jersey</a> bust <a href="http://www.footballjetsonline.com/women-lorenzo-mauldin-jersey/">Lorenzo Mauldin Jets Jersey</a> y, that doesn’t signify they can’t look nice inside of a short prom dress way too.The aircraft was delivered to Lufthansa from the Airbus production line in 1991 and tra <a href="http://www.footballjetsonline.com/hoodie/">Authentic Jets Hoodie</a> nsferred to Germanwings in 2014.Undocumentеd ?mmigrants will no
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2018-08-16 01:04:17
The booth nextdoor is devoted to Dobby, a small white drone can  <a href="http://www.authoritylionsshop.com/jarrad-davis-lions-jersey-c-52/">Jarrad Davis Jersey</a> be folded and slipped into your pocket.Again, the panties are made <a href="http://www.authoritylionsshop.com/jalen-reeves-maybin-lions-jersey-c-63/">Jalen Reeves-Maybin Jersey</a>  from mainly cotton for easy washablility and superior and long lasting comfort.DAMASCUS, May 2 (Xinhua)The Syrian Interior Ministry denied reports that inmates have tak <a href="http://www.authoritylionsshop.com/tracy-walker-lions-jersey-c-88/">Tracy Walker Lions Jersey</a> e
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-15 22:14:59
Overtopping of the s <a href="http://www.cheapnfljerseyschinateam.us.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys</a> ea defence at Seafield in Region Five on Tuesday caused several sections of We <a href="http://www.nflchampsshop.net/ATLANTA-FALCONS-DEION-SANDERS-JERSEY/">Deion Sanders Falcons Jersey</a> st Coast Berbice to be under flood waters.The areas most affected are Grove, #29,Cheap NFL Jerseys, #28 and? Number 30 Village <a href="http://www.nflcheapjerseys.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys China</a> /Union. The residents are furious at the officials of the Mahaica-Mahaicony-
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2018-08-15 17:07:22
When buying a fabri <a href="http://www.superstarrebajas.com/adidas-nmd-r2.html">adidas nmd r2 colombia</a> c,adidas nmd r2 colombia, figure out wh <a href="http://www.superstarrebajas.com/hombre-adidas-alphabounce-beyond-negras-colombia.html">Hombre Adidas AlphaBounce Beyond Negras Colombia</a> ich you will wish fabric that will hang on to to your curves or move if you dance. It?s is the largest in water boat show in the world and shows off over three billion dollars worth of <a href="http://www.superstarrebajas.com/">adidas superstar colombia</a>  boats, yachts and super yachts as well as electronics, en
引用 删除 shekplos4x   /   2018-08-15 04:00:16
Downtime can negatively impact <a href="http://www.nhlhockey.us.com/Colorado-Avalanche-Lanny-Mcdonald-Jersey/">Lanny McDonald Jersey</a>  the experience of web users and their opinion on th <a href="http://www.nhlhockey.us.com/St-Louis-Blues-Pavol-Demitra-Jersey/">avol Demitra Jersey</a> e business and its website. Exercise is needed to liquefy the fat from the cells so unearth the muscles that lie below. 1. Most of these herbs do provid <a href="http://www.nhlhockey.us.com/Custom-Shop-Philadelphia-Flyers/">Customized Philadelphia Flyers Jerseys</a> e ‘highs’,Lanny McDonald Jersey, but they are very shortlived.""Th
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-14 19:13:18
Related:Black box from plane crash dammaged but can  <a href="http://www.airmax-2017.it/nike-air-max-flair.html">nike air max flair scontate</a> be analysed: French ministerPARIS, March  <a href="http://www.airmax-2017.it/nike-air-max-2018.html">air max 2018 scontate</a> 25 (Xinhua)The black box recovered Tuesday night from crashed Germanwing's passenger jet was damaged, said French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve on Wednesday morning.Meanwhile, a wellinformed source sa <a href="http://www.airmax-2017.it/">air max 2017 scontate</a> i
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2018-08-14 17:58:19
Other classes involve children’s items, housewares, pap <a href="http://www.authoritybrownsshop.com/austin-corbett-browns-jersey-c-76/">Austin Corbett Jersey</a> er items,Austin Corbett Jersey <a href="http://www.authoritybrownsshop.com/jabrill-peppers-browns-jersey-c-54/">Authentic Jabrill Peppers Jersey</a> , crocheted or knitted objects, hand sewn items, bags and purses, pet toys, ceramics, sculpture,Authentic Jabrill Peppers Jersey, dinnerware, and decor. The treatments for which they regularly visi <a href="http://www.authoritybrownsshop.com/myles-garrett-browns-jersey-c-53/">Myles Garrett Womens Jersey</a> t India are heart
引用 删除 shekplos9t   /   2018-08-14 03:40:04
"RIO DE JANEIRO, Aug.Pete's Kitchen is one of 10 restaurants and  <a href="http://www.cheapdiscountjerseysnfl.us.com/">Cheap Nike NFL Jerseys China</a> bars that have been owned by local business legend Pete Contos.S. <a href="http://www.cheapdiscountjerseysnfl.us.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys China</a>  Soccer betting is the most popular betting type in the world. My knees remain intact. For inside information, you need contacts in the betting world."We are today  <a href="http://www.cheapdiscountjerseysnfl.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys</a> agains
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-14 01:30:26
If voi <a href="http://www.new574balanceofferta.it/new-balance-576-34354-scontate.html">new balance 576 nere</a> ces had been recorded, the investigation would proceed very quic <a href="http://www.new574balanceofferta.it/new-balance-574-0629/new-balance-574-nere.html">new balance 574 nere e bianche</a> kly, he said.check into cash onlineWhile the HP Photosmart 7510 eAllinOne multifunction inkjet printer appears to be noticeably similar to the company’s HP Photosmart eStation,n <a href="http://www.new574balanceofferta.it/new-balance-574-0629/new-balance-574-verdi.html">new balance 574 verde e blu</a> ew balance 576 nere, you cannot, as you can with the
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-14 00:51:40
But the Photosmart 7510 is a wellrounded device, with decent speed as well  <a href="http://www.botysuperstar.cz/zx-adidas-originals/adidas-zx-flux.html">adidas zx flux dámské</a> as print q <a href="http://www.botysuperstar.cz/adidas-boty-levne/adidas-nmd-runner.html">adidas nmd cz</a> uality,adidas zx flux dámské, and sufficient functions to address both home and homeoffice requirements.So long, fancy lingerie stores. Other classes involve children’s items,adidas nmd cz, hous <a href="http://www.botysuperstar.cz/zx-adidas-originals/adidas-zx-850.html">adidas zx 850 damske</a> ewares, paper items,
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-14 00:21:04
This is the perfect beach to sit on and watch all <a href="http://www.cheapmax90ireland.com/cheapest-nike-air-max-90/air-max-90-womens.html">nike air max 90 womens ireland</a>  the yachts a <a href="http://www.cheapmax90ireland.com/">air max womens ireland</a> nd other boats come in because it?s right at the inlet.Xavier Roy,nike air max 90 womens ireland, coordinator of the search operation,air max womens ireland, told Xinhua that the priority now is to find the second black box but "no corps <a href="http://www.cheapmax90ireland.com/">nike air max ireland</a> e
引用 删除 shekplos9t   /   2018-08-13 04:04:15
Meetings with Afghan president  <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseyscheap.cc/">Wholesale NFL Jerseys From China</a> and Russia foreign min <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseyscheap.cc/">Cheap NFL Jerseys Wholesale</a> ister are part of the interaction, he said.De Wholesale NFL Jerseys From China Mistura noted the precursor to the latest  <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseyscheap.cc/">Cheap Jerseys</a> Geneva talks included a May meeting involving Russia and Turkey in Astana, Kazakhstan, followed by an agreement earlier this m
引用 删除 shekplos7p   /   2018-08-13 00:26:15
Check out his site 4 wheel drive lift kitsto see al <a href="http://www.cheapnfljerseysonlineshop.com/">Cheap Jerseys Wholesale</a> l of his 2001 Chevy Cheap Jer <a href="http://www.cheapnfljerseysonlineshop.com/">Cheap Jerseys 17$</a> seys Wholesale Silverado Lift KitsThe profile will give you a clear and an unbiased view of the company's key strengths and weaknesses and the potential opportunities and thre <a href="http://www.cheapnfljerseysonlineshop.com/">Cheap NCAA Jerseys</a> ats.""Comedy is a genre that Sohu TV has buil
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-12 23:13:47
The consumers will need to compare the differen <a href="http://www.pendeo.org/mens-nike-kyrie-1-all-star-grey-for-sale.html">Mens Nike Kyrie 1 All Star Grey For Sale</a> t brands,Mens Nike Kyrie 1 All Star Grey For Sale, diffe <a href="http://www.pendeo.org/mens-nike-kyrie-2-monkey-year-red-yellow-for-sale.html">Mens Nike Kyrie 2 Monkey Year Red Yellow For Sale</a> rent prices and different functions. More so, you could end up feeling that you are not actually the person who won the particular score and in the real feeling of it, you are not. he merely wants <a href="http://www.pendeo.org/kids-nike-kd-7-red-black-for-sale.html">Kids Nike KD 7 Red Black For Sale</a>
引用 删除 shekplos2g   /   2018-08-12 17:53:50
S.Safety a <a href="http://www.wholesalesoccerjerseys.cc/">Cheap Soccer Jerseys China</a> ffair with Tandem Jump ?Since the origination of the sport there are harnessed  <a href="http://www.wholesalesoccerjerseys.cc/">Cheap Jerseys</a> system utilized to carry the activity. Betsafe casino Red drivs av kraftfulla Net Entertainment Software Group, som ger en grym samling utav internet casin <a href="http://www.wholesalesoccerjerseys.cc/">Cheap Soccer Jerseys Wholesale</a> o spel som tcker allt man behver, preferenser & bankrull
引用 删除 shekplos2g   /   2018-08-12 02:53:57
The antiimmigrant and nationalism advocate said she would wo <a href="http://www.cheapoutletnfljerseys.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys China Wholesale</a> rk "to defend a su <a href="http://www.cheapoutletnfljerseys.us.com/">Wholesale Jerseys From China</a> stainable France,Cheap Jerseys China Wholesale, its economic and social balance, identity and culture,Wholesale Jerseys From China, the existence of which the president denies.S.The second branch of the <a href="http://www.cheapoutletnfljerseys.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys From China</a>  People's Procurator
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2018-08-12 01:15:06
This certification will be the prerequisit <a href="http://www.dosetup.com/">Cheap Nike Presto Shoes</a> e to turning out to be a Microsoft Certified IT Experienced or MCITP.  <a href="http://www.dosetup.com/men-s-nike-air-presto-qs-fleece-pack-navy-cheapest.html">Men's Nike Air Presto QS  Fleece Pack Navy Cheapest</a> Check in at a hotel. A 70 680 certification will place you inside the league of coveted house windows authorities <a href="http://www.dosetup.com/nike-cortez.html">Cheap Nike Cortez</a> .Online public opinion can affect public policy.For most of the history of
引用 删除 shekplos2g   /   2018-08-12 00:42:15
We have  <a href="http://www.cheapnfljerseysforwholesale.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys Wholesale</a> made incremental progress,Cheap Jerseys Who <a href="http://www.cheapnfljerseysforwholesale.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys Outlet</a> lesale, no breakthrough,Cheap Jerseys Outlet, no breakdowns, no one walked out,Wholesale Jerseys China," the UN envoy told reporters.De Mistura stressed that this  <a href="http://www.cheapnfljerseysforwholesale.us.com/">Wholesale Jerseys China</a> week had involved "preparatory work" aimed at getting people "closer to each other" an
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-11 21:16:59
The only disadvantage is that the cost is very hi <a href="http://www.knoitnow.com/nike-air-max-90-mens.html">Nike Air Max 90 Mens Australia</a> gh. There are ma <a href="http://www.knoitnow.com/">Cheap Nike Air Max 90 Australia</a> ny models available in the market and the prices can vary greatly in accordance with the packages bracket and the wafer.For additional information please refer toAnd you will in addition find out about t <a href="http://www.knoitnow.com/nike-air-max-90-br-breathe.html">Nike Air Max 90 BR Breathe Australia</a> he most effective natural ingred
 

评分:0

我来说两句

显示全部

:loveliness: :handshake :victory: :funk: :time: :kiss: :call: :hug: :lol :'( :Q :L ;P :$ :P :o :@ :D :( :)

日历

« 2018-08-16  
   1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031 

数据统计

  • 访问量: 121142
  • 日志数: 920
  • 建立时间: 2007-08-16
  • 更新时间: 2013-08-15

RSS订阅

Open Toolbar