叶檀:新一轮投资 大不易

上一篇 / 下一篇  2013-08-15 13:51:50 / 精华(3) / 置顶(1)


         近日,《人民日报》海外版刊文指出,新一轮投资与当年4万亿不同。希望不同,否则再过十年,中国经济不堪设想。
    把希望当成现实,忽略中国的实际状况,是天真而可笑的。每个人都希望投资有回报,地方政府也不例外,当能否有回报取决于诸多因素,绝不仅仅是愿望,愿望是渺小的,现实是残酷的。
    此次不同主要是目的不同、手段不同、监管不同。
    目的不同,不是应急,不助力产能过剩行业与高污染行业,而是着眼于经济结构调整与未来可持续发展。设想一番最美妙的前景,十年以后中国主要城市由高铁连接,城市群内部有便捷的轻轨地铁,大城市周边拱卫着数个甚至数十个卫星城发挥各自的作用,中国不再被产能过剩与严重的雾霾纠缠,城市没有类似于贫民窟的牛皮癣,大多数民众过着幸福快乐的生活
    这与上世纪五六十年代的日本与韩国相似,韩国与日本的手段是新农村运动,国民收入倍增计划,强力扶持本国市场化的大型企业,具有国际竞争力的大企业雏形初现,基础设施大致建成。
    中国的手段则是政府主导下的市场化。中国国际经济交流中心信息部部长徐洪才先生表示,此轮投资是通过增量资金投入,带动资本的存量结构和经济结构的调整,政府不再大包大揽,其资金只是起引导作用,更多的是把投资机会让给了民间和市场。政府简政放权,改善服务,加强监管,降低了人流、物流、信息流等生产要素的成本,而民间力量可以解决资金不足,最终通过效率审计向社会交代。政府不是市场主体,而是规划与监管主体。
    随新一轮投资而来的不再是地方政府与国企财力的突飞猛进,而是投资制度、投资主体、投资监管体制的整体改革。
    此次大规模投资是否有应急的成分?应该有。中央财政到地方财政收入直线下降,地方全靠房地产支撑,负债率高到6月份出现银行之间的高利拆借,而资源依赖型城市与传统低端出口城市,不是已经崩盘,就是前景不妙。不管是否有救急考虑,地方政府火烧眉毛之际,必然有应急之举。
    目前基建公司基本是国有企业,债务情况最糟糕的会通过BT等模式将工程外包给民企公司。地方政府不愿意放权,更不愿意交出肥差。中国基础建设以地方政府公司化为基石,以房地产作为融资品的唯一来源,这一结构如铁板一块,丝毫没有松动的迹象,民资进入意味着原有结构大调整,从公司到监管都需要重塑,这不比骆驼穿过针眼轻松。
    地方政府尊重各股东权利,是铁板松动的根基。很多地方、国企的放权是虚晃一枪,以铁路为例,建立吸引民资的投资公司后,民资不具有管理权与分红权,连详尽的报表也不愿意给民资股东,他们要的就是钱,至于用什么名目,并不重要。
    比尊重股东更重要的是严守信用。目前地方政府十个锅子五个盖的游戏还能够持续,重要原因是土地升值,另一个原因是抵押物造假,一些不义银行、信托揣着明白装糊涂,包装成产品卖给公众。《第一财经日报》报道,一家大型资产评估机构的董事长说,“有的地方甚至把高速公路的绿化带用地都拿来作为抵押物,忽悠银行和信托机构,理财产品和信托产品卖疯了,背后的有效抵押往往不多。”这与笔者了解的情况差不多,风险无法控制的金融产品就是庞氏骗局,撑死胆大的,饿死胆小的。
    政府守信,金融才有希望,新一轮改革才有眉目,政府不守信,地方基建必然倒推出债务泡沫与房地产泡沫,最后玉石俱焚。
    政府主导下的改革有些端倪,15平方公里的新加坡·南京生态科技岛,开发商与政府各持有一半股份,总投入资金超过千亿元。实施中,项目实施单位负责编制整体开发的初步设计概算,审计部门负责对此进行审计,以确定整体开发的初步成本,分期开发完成后,审计部门再实施分期决算审计,经累加形成整体开发成本的最终决算。在巨大的压力下,终于有地方政府觉醒。
    政府主导是现实,鼓励政府与企业双赢,以监管与法律为民资划出救济底线,才能有不同的投资效果。

站内搜索:

TAG:

引用 删除 shekplos4x   /   2018-08-16 23:25:27
H <a href="http://www.thenhlhockeyjerseys.com/Arizona-Coyotes-Mikkel-Boedker-Jersey-Sale/">Mikkel Boedker Jersey</a> e said  <a href="http://www.thenhlhockeyjerseys.com/Vegas-Golden-Knights-Malcolm-Subban-Jersey-Sale/">Malcolm Subban Jersey</a> the numerous signs of solidarity pouring in from all over Italy, and from the world, had greatly helped the people of Amatrice endure the past 12 months. But the Peavey Intermezzo is only shortl <a href="http://www.thenhlhockeyjerseys.com/Team-North-America-Ryan-Nugent-Hopkins-Jersey-Sale/">Ryan Nugent-Hopkins North America Jersey</a> ived. You can workout in peace at home using bodylastic.Looking out on the internet is among the g
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-16 16:51:28
dollars) on the program, over the next five years. This is a S <a href="http://www.kjoporiginalsnorge.com/adidas-yeezy-boost-350-v2.html">yeezy boost 350 v2 norge</a> chenker XMG P701 PRO notebook review reader <a href="http://www.kjoporiginalsnorge.com/adidas-stan-smith.html">adidas stan smith norge</a> . This can lead to a foul odor, as you dig into the stack, and a bigger problem as you spread it around your plants. Be bold. Just like a wood worker needs to be cautious with regards to exactly <a href="http://www.kjoporiginalsnorge.com/adidas-nmd-xr4.html">adidas nmd xr4 norge</a>
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2018-08-16 09:01:12
4GHz i72660QM with 6MB ca <a href="http://www.authenticeaglesfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Dallas-Goedert-Jersey/">Authentic Dallas Goedert Jersey</a> ch <a href="http://www.authenticeaglesfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Carson-Wentz-Jersey/">Carson Wentz Jersey</a> e and 3. Surround your garden plants using this noxious matter and in a short space of time they will go from green to brown.Only two small pads woven into the fabric support and lift your backside. It has a piano lounge as prope <a href="http://www.authenticeaglesfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Jordan-Hicks-Jersey/">Authentic Jordan Hicks Jersey</a> rly as a good dining room that serves other
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-15 20:19:58
It has a piano lounge as properly as a good dining room that serves other  <a href="http://www.billigaairmax.se/herr-nike-air-max-2018-elite-kpu-tpu-svart-vita-butik.html">Herr Nike Air Max 2018 Elite KPU TPU Svart Vita Butik</a> things besides fantastic cuts of steak like pork te <a href="http://www.billigaairmax.se/herr-nike-air-max-270-vita-bla.html">Herr Nike Air Max 270 Vita Bl?</a> nderloin and lobster as well. And atthis price, the optional 4 year assure is welcome. She also would like to gives them to individuals in on the net globe. The 4. It mixes l <a href="http://www.billigaairmax.se/">www.billigaairmax.se</a> e
引用 删除 shekplos9t   /   2018-08-15 19:53:26
The similar thing isbelieved about mo <a href="http://www.cheapdiscountjerseysnfl.us.com/">http://www.cheapdiscountjerseysnfl.us.com/</a> ney management thatmeans <a href="http://www.cheapdiscountjerseysnfl.us.com/">Wholesale Jerseys From China</a> , if you do not pay attention towards betting experts, you might not be able to take that positive resulting step to get success in betting world. Photo: ICAn awar <a href="http://www.cheapdiscountjerseysnfl.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys China</a> dwinning Hindi film exploring women's sexuality that was blocked by India's
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2018-08-15 16:24:37
For the right  <a href="http://www.airforce1-dk.com/dame-nike-air-force-1-100-low-lobesko-hvid-hvid-hvid-aq3621-111.html">Dame Nike Air Force 1-100 Low L?besko Hvid</a> price, you can feel great and finally sport the voluptu <a href="http://www.airforce1-dk.com/nike-air-force-1-herre-udsalg.html">Nike Air Force 1 Herre Danmark</a> ous figure you?ve always longed for.I hope you enjoyed the topic Get to Know Fascinating Travel Destination – HoustonPlease click the link here to learn and find out more about Get to Know Inter <a href="http://www.airforce1-dk.com/nike-air-force-1-dame-tilbud/air-force-1-dame-mid.html">Nike Air Force 1 Dame Mid Danmark</a> esting Travel Destination – Houston.
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-14 19:24:31
The point of this sums up the importance of having a  <a href="http://www.billsapparelsshop.com/adolphus-washington-bills-jersey-c-41/">Adolphus Washington Jersey</a> nice plump rump.Not a problem.Beauty is truly in  <a href="http://www.billsapparelsshop.com/josh-allen-bills-jersey-c-80/">Josh Allen Bills Jersey</a> the eye of the beholder,Adolphus Washington Jersey, of course, but sadly the image that happens to drive people wild is not something everyone can attain. One of the world s busiest cruise departur <a href="http://www.billsapparelsshop.com/t-shirts-c-1/">Cheap Bills T-Shirts</a> e
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-14 17:58:02
""Our entire Houston Rocket <a href="http://www.authoritybrownsshop.com/carl-nassib-browns-jersey-c-25/">Carl Nassib Browns Jersey</a> s team is looking forward to returning to China, we  <a href="http://www.authoritybrownsshop.com/myles-garrett-browns-jersey-c-53/">Myles Garrett Womens Jersey</a> are proud of the special bond our team has with the Chinese fans. Solidity brings bodyweight,of course. Then there?s Hillsboro Beach that has the Hillsboro Lighthouse.Dominguez said the "Build, Build, Bui <a href="http://www.authoritybrownsshop.com/carl-nassib-browns-jersey-c-25/">Authentic Carl Nassib Jersey</a> ld" program will
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2018-08-13 01:53:44
I have seen many that are very good in hospitality. The <a href="http://www.silvsoft.com/cheapest-fenty-puma-fur-slides-pink.html">Cheapest Fenty Puma Fur Slides Pink</a> refore,Cheapest Fenty Puma Fur Sl <a href="http://www.silvsoft.com/womens-puma-fenty-bow-slides-pink.html">Womens Puma Fenty Bow Slides Pink</a> ides Pink, the buyers are supposed to know the details of the critical cost factors before making the purchases of the LED bulb products. By comparing the features,Womens Puma Fenty Bow Slides Pink, people may f <a href="http://www.silvsoft.com/puma-leadcat-fenty.html">puma leadcat fenty canada</a> i
引用 删除 shekplos7p   /   2018-08-12 23:22:12
You possibly can the very best  <a href="http://www.cheapnbajerseyschinashop.com/">Wholesale Jerseys Online</a> refinance home finance loan car Wholesale Jerseys On <a href="http://www.cheapnbajerseyschinashop.com/">Wholesale Jerseys Cheap</a> line finance calculator, you can actually put it to use above well as over just as before to find out just what the effect will be.Baldi <a href="http://www.cheapnbajerseyschinashop.com/">Cheap Jerseys Wholesale</a> vieso sees these two matches as crucial if Bolivia want to continue their chances
引用 删除 shekplos9t   /   2018-08-12 20:51:04
69 po <a href="http://www.cheapjerseysnflwholesalechina.us.com/">Cheap Wholesale Jerseys</a> int, or 0. <a href="http://www.cheapjerseysnflwholesalechina.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys From China</a> The team has hardhitting batsmen Rashaad Mosweu, Thatayaone Tshose and Mmoloki Mooketsi who are capped at senior level. At its peak, <a href="http://www.cheapjerseysnflwholesalechina.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys China Online</a>  the U.Contos, 83, a conservative businessman, came to Denver from Greece in 1955 with no Cheap Wholesale Jerseys money, speaking no English, and started
引用 删除 shekplos2g   /   2018-08-12 04:59:15
A spokesman for Fallon s <a href="http://www.wholesalecheapnflsportsjerseys.com/">Cheap Hockey Jerseys</a> aid he  <a href="http://www.wholesalecheapnflsportsjerseys.com/">Wholesale Jerseys Cheap</a> had apologized when it happened in 2002,Cheap Hockey Jerseys, adding: "He apologized when the incident happened 15 <a href="http://www.wholesalecheapnflsportsjerseys.com/">Wholesale Soccer Jerseys China</a>  years ago and both Julia and he now considered the matter closed. The court also deprived Zhai of his political rights for four years.Veterinary drug expe
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-12 04:51:43
– 500 students to benefitStudents of St.  <a href="http://www.nflchinacheapjerseys.us.com/">cheap nfl jerseys china</a> Stephens and West Ruimveldt primary schools after collecting some <a href="http://www.cheapnfljerseyschinaline.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys For Sale</a>  of the haversacks Not having a meal can severely affect children and cause them to not focus on education. While this scenari <a href="http://www.chinawholesalejerseysauthentic.com/">China Jerseys Cheap</a> o is not unique to Guyana, through a Food for the Poor Initiative,ch
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-11 17:45:36
"The public now has access to the o <a href="http://www.teamnflsteelersshop.com/authentic-terrell-edmunds-steelers-jersey/">Cheap Terrell Edmunds Jersey</a> nce mysterious process of political decision <a href="http://www.teamnflsteelersshop.com/hats/">Cheap Steelers Hats</a>  making."Indeed,Cheap Terrell Edmunds Jersey, cities and cultural organizations around the country are making efforts along these lines. Lets be realistic: kids normally have shorter attention spans, more energy,C <a href="http://www.teamnflsteelersshop.com/authentic-james-conner-steelers-jersey/">Authentic James Conner Jersey</a> heap Ste
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-11 17:00:04
cbblower. <a href="http://www.teamnflbillsshop.com/Authentic_Josh_Allen_Bills_Jersey/">Black Josh Allen Jersey</a>  A better approach i <a href="http://www.teamnflbillsshop.com/Hats/">Cheap Bills Hats</a> s to discuss with the suppliers or manufacturers on the products, to let they fully know the requirements of the buyers."In a sup <a href="http://www.teamnflbillsshop.com/Authentic_Dion-Dawkins_Bills_Jersey/">Dion Dawkins Jersey</a> ermarket, the customers may be confused when they find big price differences on some similar LED light products. In concentrated forms, these
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-11 09:11:26
Water is kn <a href="http://www.teamnfl49ersstore.com/">Cheap 49ers Jersey</a> own as the universal solvent because of different uses that they have. The <a href="http://www.teamnfl49ersstore.com/Black-10-Jimmy-Garoppolo-Womens-Jersey/">ink Jimmy Garoppolo Jersey</a>  jewel of the area,Cheap 49ers Jersey, however,Pink Jimmy Garoppolo Jersey, is the q <a href="http://www.teamnfl49ersstore.com/Black-58-Eli-Harold-Womens-Jersey/">Eli Harold Jersey</a> uaint hill station of Mussourie, 2000m above sea level. If we could leave our embarrassment in the waiting room it would be so much
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-10 22:42:46
There are many people like Wang Donglin using <a href="http://www.authenticbrownsshoponline.com/myles-garrett-browns-jersey/">Myles Garrett Browns Jersey</a>  new media to promote soci <a href="http://www.authenticbrownsshoponline.com/nick-chubb-browns-jersey/">Nick Chubb Browns Jersey</a> al reform. I want to make clear just how much sugar is found in the sodas people are drinking each day.It is estimated that Chinese museums only showcase 10 percent of their collections while the rest are in storerooms. Gaining  <a href="http://www.authenticbrownsshoponline.com/">Womens Browns Jerseys</a> a
引用 删除 shekplos2g   /   2018-08-10 03:20:18
Reyes may have underperformed <a href="http://www.cheapnfljerseysforwholesale.us.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys China Wholesale</a>  in recent years but he was in the right place at th <a href="http://www.cheapnfljerseysforwholesale.us.com/">Wholesale Jerseys China</a> e right time for a comfortable finish to send the 2,Cheap NFL Jerseys China Wholesale,500 visiting fans wild with delight.UN negotiators have in the past noted the inability of the Security Council <a href="http://www.cheapnfljerseysforwholesale.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys China Wholesale</a>  to achieve unanimity
引用 删除 shekplos9t   /   2018-08-10 01:39:22
The antiimmigrant and nationalism advocate said she woul <a href="http://www.wholesalesoccerjerseys.cc/">Wholesale Soccer Jerseys</a> d work "to defend a sustainable France, its economic and so <a href="http://www.wholesalesoccerjerseys.cc/">Wholesale Soccer Jerseys China</a> cial balance, identity and culture, the existence of which the president denies.Before Friday's meeting with the press, de Mistura had engaged with members of the UN Security Council i <a href="http://www.wholesalesoccerjerseys.cc/">http://www.wholesalesoccerjerseys.cc/</a> n
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-08-09 18:51:51
The small <a href="http://www.teamnfl49ersshop.com/49ers-joe-williams-black-jersey/">Joe Williams Jersey</a> er  <a href="http://www.teamnfl49ersshop.com/49ers-dante-pettis-black-jersey/">Black Dante Pettis Jersey</a> size can achieve to the lower cost.China on Tuesday again voiced opposition to a gathering in Vancouver of foreign ministers from 20 countries on security and stability on the Korean Peninsula. The VPS can run their own operating systems and applications; install software without botheri
 

评分:0

我来说两句

显示全部

:loveliness: :handshake :victory: :funk: :time: :kiss: :call: :hug: :lol :'( :Q :L ;P :$ :P :o :@ :D :( :)

日历

« 2018-08-17  
   1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031 

数据统计

  • 访问量: 121142
  • 日志数: 920
  • 建立时间: 2007-08-16
  • 更新时间: 2013-08-15

RSS订阅

Open Toolbar