叶檀谈房地产:房企进入爆发期(图组)

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房地产进入又一个高涨期,这是三十几次调控之后的又一次上涨。

  据报道,截至8月7日,有三家房企正式发布再融资方案,涉及资金超过88亿元。如果再融资方案获批,说明房地产从政治意义、金融意义上重建天日,目前通过表外、信托的庞大融资之外,还会加上银行表内贷款、公司债、股票市场融资等诸多方式。

  房地产泡沫一度引发巨大担忧,为了抑制房地产金融杠杆股市与贷款对房地产企业关上了大门,这是象征性姿态,因为表外信托等融资方式的大门依然畅开,最大的影响提升了房地产的融资成本,房地产商与融资者皆大欢喜。但高价融资的方式却证明了在社会一些人眼中房地产开发风险的上升,与道德的低下。如果股票市场这一特定的“圈钱”市场向房地产企业开放,说明房地产企业从经济与道德两个层面被“摘帽”。

  房地产目前进入上升周期的最后爆发阶段。

  之所以说最后,是因为目前房地产市场全面开花,而房价大幅上涨集中在一二线城市,一些三四线城市房价下挫甚至出现全面下挫。大城市集中权力、商业、人才、资金等优势,在本轮城镇化进程中受益最大、风险最小,当外围冰山逐渐融化时,内部冰层加厚,显示经济失衡状况严重,这种局面可以继续,但不能维系长久,未来将有更多的三四线城市进入“融化”行列。

  7月中国百城住宅平均价格为10347元/平方米,比6月上涨0.87%,自2012年6月以来连续第14个月环比上涨,但价格下跌的城市个数明显增多,其中61个城市环比上涨,39个城市环比下跌。同比来看,全国100个城市住宅均价与2012年7月相比上涨7.94%,涨幅扩大。前十大城市房价同比连续第9个月上涨,7月住宅均价为17609元/平方米,环比上涨1.34%,同比上涨11.06%,住宅均价首次突破10%,涨幅扩大1.13个百分点,广州北京深圳、南京涨幅均超过10%。涨幅均超过全国平均水平。

  房地产依然是目前市场最热门的投资品种,今年上半年的地王与房地产销售数据说明了一切,投资者似乎对鄂尔多斯与神木泡沫崩溃视若无睹,但值得关注的是,投资者的投资范围越来越集中,投资标的越来越狭窄,如大城市刚需、高端写字楼、商业新地标的商铺等。

  房地产金融用到了极致。

  房地产是最受银行欢迎的抵押产品,银行压缩开发贷,并不能改变房地产是中国信用替代物这一事实,没有信用贷款,只有抵押与担保贷款,抵押贷款只有房地产贷款。

  个人房贷是优质贷款。央行7月19日发布的2013年上半年金融机构贷款投向统计报告,显示6月末金融机构人民币各项贷款余额68.08万亿元,同比增长14.2%,中长期贷款下降,而涉房贷款大幅上升:6月末,地产开发贷款余额1.06万亿元,同比增长17.2%。房产开发贷款余额3.26万亿元,同比增长11%。个人购房贷款余额9.07万亿元,同比增长21.1%。假设在限购情况下,个人购房现金支付占比达到购房贷的三分之一,房地产市场将达到12万亿元以上。

  购房者现金支付比例大、负债少,房地产也就无所谓泡沫,而是由购房者真实财富煮成的一锅坚硬的粥。没有什么比房地产更容易吸纳公众手里的资金,吸纳公众财富发展城镇,通过城镇化获得土地。

  房地产拉动城市化有边界,如果一个城市由房地产投资者机构城市运营的隐性成本,商业被商业物业推高,将会反噬实体经济,500强企业搬离北京市中心就是例证。

  通过房地产预支今后的财富,最长不会超过20年,从2003年开始已经10年,房地产黄金时代过后,最乐观估计,还会有白金的10年。

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