皮海洲:股市进入“1时代”是没有悬念的事情。

上一篇 / 下一篇  2012-11-29 15:56:50 / 精华(3) / 置顶(1)


早在9月22日本人就发文表示《股市迎来“1时代”将是大概率事件》。虽然由于股市维稳的原因,“1时代”到来的脚步有所延缓,但股市终于还是在11月27日正式进入“1时代”。当天上证指数26.29点,收盘1191.17点,创45个月以来的新低。28日上证指数再创1968.21点新低。

    股市进入“1时代”是没有悬念的事情。虽然在分析股市进入“1时代”的原因时,业界人士常常会提及中外经济因素,而且国内经济增速放缓也确实是影响股市不振的重要原因之一,但股市进入“1时代”更主要的还是股市自身的原因。

    一方面是股市的长期失血。最近几年股市始终低迷,但股市扩容的脚步始终没有停止,股指因此逐步走低。在这种大趋势下,股市跌穿2000点只是早晚的事情。虽然最近一段时间,IPO的脚步明显放缓,最近一个月甚至进入实质性的新股停发状态。但股市失血的现象并没有扭转,证监会对于再融资的审核依旧在进行。如27日国金证券公告称,26日收到证监会通知,核准公司非公开发行不超过3亿股新股。资料显示,在剔除未通过和停止实施的增发预案后,目前仍有311家上市公司提出了增发预案,预计募资高达5243.80亿元。

    不仅如此,大小非套现还在继续。尽管11月以来,大盘成交量逐步萎缩。但大小非和高管仍然减持不断。截至11月26日,共计112家公司遭到减持,合计减持数量2.41亿股,减持市值约24亿元。而12月A股将迎来年内最大一波解禁潮,大小非解禁数量为337.66亿股,市值高达2294.65亿元,较11月1112.87亿元的解禁市值增长一倍有余。

    就在这种背景下,新三板规则将在明年1月1日正式实施。据了解新三板规则将允许个人投资者参与新三板市场,这又将对A股市场资金形成分流。

    而在股市不断失血的同时,投资者信心越发不振。中登公司公布的数据显示,A股参与交易账户数占比自2008年以来,已首次降至4%以下,仅剩646.46万户,创出2008年初以来的低点。同时有7成股民因为亏损而被迫做“僵尸”。一度成为股市名人的“韭菜姑娘”也弃股从商,称摆摊比炒股赚钱。股市失去了投资者的参与,也就只能步步走低,并终于迎来“1时代”。

    因此,“1时代”的到来是扭曲的股市制度造成的。尽管股市几度从“1时代”奋起,但最终终点又回到起点。这种起伏的过程,一次次地损害的都是投资者利益,是投资者对中国股市的信心。所以,在股市再次进入“1时代”的时候,也即在股市再次被推倒的时候,投资者更盼望着中国股市的制度能够推倒重来。如果还是维持目前的股市制度不变,还是让股市停留在一个为融资者服务的市场里,还是将股市定位于圈钱市,那么,股市是不可能给投资者带来希望的。即便股市有上涨行情的出现,但股市最终重回起点将是不可改变的宿命。

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皮海洲

皮海洲

职业投资者,独立财经撰稿人。1993年入市,十四年的股市磨练,练就了对股市独到的眼光与见解。所写文章以政策、时事热点评述、股票炒作心得为主,以反映中小投资者呼声为 己任,著有《轻轻松松炒股票》一书。联系方式:phz168@21cn.com

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