皮海洲:摩根大通的研究报告捅了A股市场的马蜂窝。

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最近摩根大通唱空中国股市唱空银行股的观点遭到国内舆论的围攻。3月18日,摩根大通发布研究报告称,建议客户减持中国股票,同时购买看空中国四大银行的衍生品,主要理由是中国经济增长放缓和通胀加速。

    摩根大通的研究报告捅了A股市场的马蜂窝。该报告一经公开,即遭到了来自A股市场的强烈反击。包括券商、私募、市场评论人士等蜂拥而上,有的对摩根大通的观点予以直接的反击;有的揭短,掀起摩根大通过去唱空做多的丑事;有的抛出阴谋论,认为摩根大通“唱空”之意在于抄底中国。

    其实,这一幕对于A股市场的投资者来说并不陌生。这一幕在A股市场出现已经是第N次了。而之所以会出现这一幕,在很大程度上与A股市场强烈的多头思维有关。因为长期以来A股市场都是一个单边市,投资者只有做多才能赚钱。所以,在这个市场里,人们包容不下空头的言论,谁唱空A股,谁就是投资者的敌人。虽然如今A股市场也有了自己的做空机制,但投资者的多头思维并没有改变过来。

    还有一个很重要的原因就是,一些批评者在批评唱空者“阴谋论”的同时,其本身就是“屁股决定脑袋”,就是一个阴谋。实际上在批评唱空者的人群中,很多就是A股市场里的多头,这些人为了自身的利益,也必须对唱空者予以坚决的反击。因为一旦唱空者真的把行情唱下去了,这些多头就会蒙受经济上的损失。

    所以,这一幕的出现其实是A股市场并不成熟的表现。作为一个成熟的市场来说,是能够同时容纳唱多者与唱空者的观点的。毕竟对于任何一个市场来说,不可能只有“多方”,如果只有做多的力量,却没有做空的力量,那么市场就不会有交易了。可见多方与空方是同时并存的,没有了空方,多方也就不复存在了。既然市场有做空的力量存在,为什么就不能包容唱空的观点呢?这表明的除了A股市场并不成熟之外,还有多方力量的心虚。

    当然,作为投资者来说,有必要对唱空的言论保持一份警惕,因为不排除一些唱空者通过唱空股市来打压股价达到做多的目的,唱空做多这样的事情在股市上并不少见。但这种言行不一的并非只有唱空者,唱多者中同样不乏唱多做空之人,而且这种情况在A股市场上最常见。因此,对于唱多者,投资者同样不能盲目轻信,同样要保持高度的警惕性。在这个问题上,最不该失声的是监管者,不论唱空还是唱多,只要有违诚信,监管者都应该严格执法。

    不过,这一次摩根大通受到攻击其实有点冤。因为在摩根大通唱空银行股之前,现任证监会主席、当时的中国银行董事长肖钢14日曾公开表示,银行业业绩高增长时期已经过去。因此,摩根大通唱空银行股,不过是步肖钢后尘。而在银行股不能看好的情况下,唱空A股也实在不是什么大谬。

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皮海洲

皮海洲

职业投资者,独立财经撰稿人。1993年入市,十四年的股市磨练,练就了对股市独到的眼光与见解。所写文章以政策、时事热点评述、股票炒作心得为主,以反映中小投资者呼声为 己任,著有《轻轻松松炒股票》一书。联系方式:phz168@21cn.com

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