中国房地产最具影响力的独立评论家,中国地产营销实战派,中国博客营销理论的首创者,游历广泛,著述颇丰,成功案例比比皆是。任职过大报版面主编,深圳晚报副总经理,分众传媒副总经理,锋尚传媒CEO,投身地产策划,博客营销,图书出版等,业余时间写小说,现居住深圳.2006-2007年度新浪网10大优秀地产博客,2006中国社会责任优秀博客,2006深圳10大地产博客,2006深圳10大最具思想博客

牛刀:中国经济主要的推动力是投资和出口。

上一篇 / 下一篇  2013-03-25 16:33:09 / 精华(3) / 置顶(1)


牛刀 房地产评论人士。“地产三剑客”之一。
  2012年现在说
  “半年后(2013年3月),房价泡沫破灭,中国经济开始转型。”
  “对经济趋势性判断谁都可以说。我依然认为2013年中国房价泡沫将破灭。”
  称崩盘将出现在中国
  新京报:去年9月,你判断今年3月中国的房价泡沫将会破灭,如今3月已至,你还坚持这个判断吗?依据是什么?
  牛刀:我的原文是:立帖为证,中国房价泡沫顶多再撑半年。半年后,房价泡沫破灭,中国经济开始转型。也就是今年3月份政策会明确,因为新政府已经交接,这是内因;外因是美元指数开始走强,对中国经济冲击很大。我的这一判断,已经被事实证明是对的。
  新京报:能详细解释一下你所说的“内因”和“外因”吗?
  牛刀:中国经济主要的推动力是投资和出口。对楼市来说,每年有两笔资金会流进楼市,构成了中国楼市新增投机资金的主流:一笔是政府投资产生大量的灰色收入,另一笔新增资金是出口退税的钱。
  今年新政府反腐力度加大,投资产生的灰色收入这部分资金有所收敛;而在出口退税方面,中国的出口企业已经出现全线亏损,如果美元指数继续涨,大宗资产价格会狂跌,所谓廉价资源在国际上已经不廉价,很多产业债务链会断裂,市场会大幅萎缩,很多出口企业会破产,出口受到毁灭性打击。基于这两方面的判断,中国楼市投机资金在2013年会出现大幅萎缩,甚至枯竭。
  中国楼市一旦失去新增资金,结果可想而知。在此同时,可能会遭遇人民币汇率崩盘。日本当年就是在这种背景下出现日元贬值迹象,导致楼市其他资金纷纷流向外汇,直接刺破了房价泡沫。日本当年出现的崩盘一幕,很快将出现在中国。
  “我越来越接近真理”
  新京报:此前,有专家从“城镇化”、“人均收入翻倍”、“改革是最大的红利”三个方面分析得到结论:2013年的房价必然“大涨”。你认为这些依据是否有道理?
  牛刀:扯淡的事。这种概念性的炒作都是骗人。
  新京报:你从2005年开始的多次预测,除了2007年与徐滇庆的对赌之外,少有胜局。如何看待自己此前的多番预言?
  牛刀:这完全是胡说,我2006年才开博客,2007年陷进一场赌局才开始研究房价问题。什么叫胜,什么叫输,与我毫不相干。我只谈自己的观点,楼市一错再错,再错下去只有崩溃。
  新京报:对自己这些年的预测结果的准确性作何评价?是否后悔过?
  牛刀:我的观点你爱听就听,不听拉倒。我从不后悔,因为我追求的是真理。按照经济规律谈经济,大体错不了。
  新京报:这些年来,没有哪一个时期让你觉得应该改变一下判断吗?
  牛刀:我越来越接近真理。我改变什么?
  “我没有钱买豪宅”
  新京报:很多网友说,因为受到你们空方专家的言论影响,他们在买房置业的好机会面前“踏空”了。对这些人,你有没有什么想说的?
  牛刀:什么叫做踏空,你难道只活三五年吗?机会多得很,而唯独不要冲进泡沫当中。这些网友要算一笔账,2008年2000元人民币的购买力能当现在的一万元,而且比现在生活还要好。什么原因?就是2009年大肆印钞导致人民币在国内的购买力急剧下降。房价涨得越多泡沫就越大,很快就跌得更惨。这是规律。
  新京报:有人说你的唱空是迎合民粹意见,以此获取知名度。也有人说你虽然打赌不断唱空房价,自己却置业买豪宅。
  牛刀:完全扯淡。我只是和曹建海熟悉后响应他的号召,向高房价挑战而已,不是什么民粹,更不是什么获取知名度,也没人拥护我。相反,拥护时寒冰、曹建海的人更多。他们才是意见领袖,我只是草根。我没有钱买豪宅。
  新京报:许多经济学家都同意,“经济具有不可预测性”,同样楼市也是难以预测的。你在每次做出判断的时候,考虑过这些预测可能带来的影响吗?
  牛刀:没谁去做什么预测。但是,对经济趋势性判断谁都可以说。我依然认为2013年中国房价泡沫将破灭。
站内搜索:

TAG: 中国房价 中国经济 中国楼市

引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-09-19 05:48:43
That is $12,Dani Ceballos Real Madrid Jersey,000 per month <a href="http://www.teamrealmadridsoccershop.com/Authentic-Dani-Ceballos-Futbol-Jersey.html">Dani Ceballos Real Madrid Jersey</a>  or $144,000 per year -- and the costs will keep growing.If yo <a href="http://www.teamrealmadridsoccershop.com/Authentic-Gareth-Bale-Futbol-Jersey.html">Authentic Gareth Bale Jersey</a> u are exposed to radioactive gas for many years it may cause problems like lung cancer. You also need to look upon the quality of the work done by them earlier.Why you should get  <a href="http://www.teamrealmadridsoccershop.com/Authentic-Dani-Carvajal-Futbol-Jersey.html">Dani Carvajal Jersey</a> r
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-09-18 03:24:21
If you are worried for this issue and want the valuable services for get money  <a href="http://www.teamenglandshop.com/dele-alli-england-jersey.html">Dele Alli Jersey</a> back t <a href="http://www.teamenglandshop.com/World-cup-joe-hart-england-jersey.html">Replica Jesse Lingard Jersey</a> hen dont move further simply contact with Australian Payment Register.keyholekates. "I didn't know anything about that. We are the experts when it comes to pet care and it is in our daycare that you can find  <a href="http://www.teamenglandshop.com/charles-barkley-england-jersey.html">Replica Charles Barkley Jersey</a> highly
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-09-17 14:33:34
Bio-Spot is a <a href="http://www.teammagicshop.com/womens-dj-augustin-basketball-jersey/">Authentic D.J. Augustin Jersey</a>  strong and producti <a href="http://www.teammagicshop.com/womens-vince-carter-basketball-jersey/">Authentic Vince Carter Jersey</a> ve drug that kills and repels fleas, ticks and mosquitoes that could possibly manifest on their own on your pet. Jump on the front cover page to get the most out of your ad.Regular samples are fou <a href="http://www.teammagicshop.com/womens-grant-hill-basketball-jersey/">Grant Hill Jersey</a> nd in transport provisions. When you use Facebook password hack tool,Au
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-09-17 12:19:49
The boiler is an important investment that provides hot water. We usua <a href="http://www.footballchargersfanatics.com/authentic-joey-bosa-chargers-jersey/">Authentic Joey Bosa Jersey</a> lly are follow <a href="http://www.footballchargersfanatics.com/authentic-joey-bosa-chargers-jersey/">Womens Joey Bosa Jersey</a> ing the choices others are making for us.If you have the time for it, do something fun and relaxing just for yourself on your wedding morning For example,Authentic Joey Bosa Jersey, why not plan an ear <a href="http://www.footballchargersfanatics.com/authentic-ladainian-tomlinson-chargers-jersey/">Womens LaDainian Tomlinson Jersey</a> ly-morning mass
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2017-09-16 23:24:06
We usually are following the cho <a href="http://www.teamnflsaintsshop.com/AUTHENTIC-TREY-HENDRICKSON-SAINTS-JERSEY/">Women's Trey Hendrickson Jersey</a> ices others are making for us. We can tun <a href="http://www.teamnflsaintsshop.com/AUTHENTIC-ALVIN-KAMARA-SAINTS-JERSEY/">Authentic Alvin Kamara Jersey</a> e it to the immutable law of universal truth or try to tune it out. Whenever we engage in an activity with the intention of avoiding our feelings,Women's Trey Hendrickson Jersey, we are using that activity as <a href="http://www.teamnflsaintsshop.com/HOODIE/">Cheap Saints Hoodie</a>  an addiction. If y
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-09-16 20:34:21
In 2003, P?rez pleaded  <a href="http://www.teambucksstore.com/womens-kareem-abdul-jabbar-basketball-jersey/">Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Jersey</a> guilty <a href="http://www.teambucksstore.com/womens-miles-plumlee-basketball-jersey/">Authentic Miles Plumlee Jersey</a>  of one of the charges and served four years in a federal prison. What you need to be careful about is the urge to diversify and sink all that you’ve made into something completely new.< p><p style="text align: ju <a href="http://www.teambucksstore.com/womens-matthew-dellavedova-basketball-jersey/">Matthew Dellavedova Womens Jersey</a> stify;"><strong>What will be the best source?< strong>< p>
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-09-16 11:57:28
When the summer ends,Ha <a href="http://www.footballcardinalsofficialonline.com/authentic-haason-reddick-cardinals-jersey/">Haason Reddick Jersey</a> ason Reddick Jersey,  <a href="http://www.footballcardinalsofficialonline.com/authentic-john-brown-cardinals-jersey/">John Brown Jersey</a> these huge basins must often be drained to prevent damage during the colder months and then refilled when summer comes again. Others are my source of love.Complete several study to discover out getting rid of bed <a href="http://www.footballcardinalsofficialonline.com/authentic-larry-fitzgerald-cardinals-jersey/">Authentic Larry Fitzgerald Jersey</a> bugs. When it is so cloudy or during evening
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-09-16 07:45:42
Famous brands followers which you justbuy are gen <a href="http://www.teamliverpoolshop.com/Ryan-Kent-Liverpool-FC-Jersey.html">Ryan Kent Liverpool Jersey</a> uine . The value of your property increases if yourhome is renovated  <a href="http://www.teamliverpoolshop.com/Danny-Ings-Liverpool-FC-Jersey.html">Danny Ings Jersey</a> it according to the effective plans given by home remodeling experts. The seeds serve the great role to make your cultivation progressive and beneficial so the necessity is to buy g <a href="http://www.teamliverpoolshop.com/Javi-Manquillo-Liverpool-FC-Jersey.html">Javi Manquillo Liverpool Jersey</a> o
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-09-16 03:43:50
A Address verificationand  <a href="http://www.footballcardinalsofficialonline.com/authentic-john-brown-cardinals-jersey/">Womens John Brown Jersey</a> Location intelligence software can be tailored to the demands of large organizat <a href="http://www.footballcardinalsofficialonline.com/authentic-larry-fitzgerald-cardinals-jersey/">Womens Larry Fitzgerald Jersey</a> ions.Playing movies for passengersSince your iPhone 66S is an excellent device to run multimedia so why not make proper use of it. However,Womens John Brown Jersey, there are only a few pro <a href="http://www.footballcardinalsofficialonline.com/hats/">Cheap Cardinals Hats</a> ducts
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2017-09-15 12:36:40
Enterpris <a href="http://www.brownsauthenticonline.com/authentic-myles-garrett-browns-jersey/">Myles Garrett Browns Jersey</a> e will be able to i <a href="http://www.brownsauthenticonline.com/authentic-david-njoku-browns-jersey/">Authentic David Njoku Jersey</a> dentify the rate of change and customer opportunities to support growth in new markets.Offer a flat rate for large item shipments. The  <a href="http://www.brownsauthenticonline.com/">Cheap Browns Jersey</a> tests are provided for educational and entertainment purposes,Myles Garrett Browns Jersey, they are administered clinically and the resul
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-09-15 06:34:47
This can become c <a href="http://www.teamenglandshop.com/world-cup-gary-cahill-england-jersey.html">Gary Cahill England Jersey</a> o <a href="http://www.teamenglandshop.com/andros-townsend-england-jersey.html">Andros Townsend Jersey</a> mforting to each body and mind should you unwind in your bath tub. The weight of an equipment you want to connect the equipment is also a factor to keep in mind. It’s been said “if you are not online you are not in business” in today’s world.html Facts And Information About The Ben
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2017-09-14 06:07:35
Think about the suggestions below to sell tanning lotion on the we <a href="http://www.thenflgiantsshop.com/authentic-jay-bromley-giants-jersey/">http://www.thenflgiantsshop.com/authentic-jay-bromley-giants-jersey/</a> b. Hong Kong Wine and Din <a href="http://www.thenflgiantsshop.com/authentic-landon-collins-giants-jersey/">http://www.thenflgiantsshop.com/authentic-landon-collins-giants-jersey/</a> e Festival If you thought the people of Hong Kong don’t appreciate the finer things in life like wine and beer then think again!! The Amazing Hong Kong Wine and Dine Festival is a wonderful place to relax wit <a href="http://www.thenflgiantsshop.com/authentic-larry-donnell-giants-jersey/">http://www.thenflgiantsshop.com/authentic-larry-donnell-giants-jersey/</a> h
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2017-09-13 23:06:16
And because mo <a href="http://www.saintsfanaticstore.com/">Cheap Saints Jersey</a> st of the grapples are often bulky and heavy,Cheap Saints J <a href="http://www.saintsfanaticstore.com/authentic-michael-thomas-saints-jersey/">Michael Thomas Saints Jersey</a> ersey, you may pay for more cost of the shipment.Remember just what you learned in your courses and be conscious of your teachers and also dive partners,Michael <a href="http://www.saintsfanaticstore.com/authentic-adrian-peterson-saints-jersey/">Authentic Adrian Peterson Jersey</a>  Thomas Saints Jersey, and then relax and take pleasure in your tim
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-09-10 04:19:15
You have to apply yourself to meet the demands of your visito <a href="http://www.basketballwarriorsshop.com/Warriors-Anderson-Varejao-Finals-Jersey/">Womens Anderson Varejao Jersey</a> rs <a href="http://www.basketballwarriorsshop.com/Warriors-Javale-Mcgee-Finals-Jersey/">Womens JaVale McGee Jersey</a> . To be a definitely excellent man or woman, you ought to have integrity. Nevertheless there are some types where in turn of funding for your college expenses you have got to put in a couple of years of work in an underserved area after <a href="http://www.basketballwarriorsshop.com/Warriors-Marreese-Speights-Finals-Jersey/">Marreese Speights Jersey</a>
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2017-09-10 00:48:32
Buying a new animal is <a href="http://www.teamgermanyshop.com/Andre-Schurrle-World-Cup-Jersey.html">Black Andre Schurrle Jersey</a>  always v <a href="http://www.teamgermanyshop.com/Bastian-Schweinsteiger-World-Cup-Jersey.html">Bastian Schweinsteiger Germany Jersey</a> ery exciting for everyone. What are these, well it is a grant given by the government to a certain individual who went through training that has tested his skills.If youre a tradie on the job and y <a href="http://www.teamgermanyshop.com/Shkodran-Mustafi-World-Cup-Jersey.html">Shkodran Mustafi Jersey</a> ou suddenly realise you need something fast, then Bacchus Marsh & Redgum
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-09-08 13:27:57
Find more details on double glazed windows in this  <a href="http://www.teamnbaknicksshop.com/Authentic-Derrick-Williams-Jersey/">Derrick Williams Knicks Jersey</a> article. Who knows <a href="http://www.teamnbaknicksshop.com/Authentic-John-Starks-Jersey/">John Starks Authentic Jersey</a>  what is going to be the fashion or grab attention but it might be a young girl singing flat or a movie of a kitten playing with a ball of string. The playful nature of children requires a charged caregiver. Consequen <a href="http://www.teamnbaknicksshop.com/Authentic-Derrick-Rose-Jersey/">Derrick Rose Knicks Jersey</a> tly,Derrick Wi
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2017-09-08 12:11:42
This is because they never receive a direct response from custom <a href="http://www.thenflcowboysshoponline.com/Youth-Keith-Smith-Cowboys-Jersey/">Authentic Keith Smith Jersey</a> ers.Becoming interested in a hob <a href="http://www.thenflcowboysshoponline.com/Youth-Dez-Bryant-Cowboys-Jersey/">Dez Bryant Jersey</a> by is a great way to assist you to deal with your depression.So if you yell at your dog or push your dog away when your dog jumps up,Authentic Keith Smith Jersey, you?re giving your dog attention. This e <a href="http://www.thenflcowboysshoponline.com/Youth-Ezekiel-Elliott-Cowboys-Jersey/">Cowboys Ezekiel Elliott Jersey</a> x
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-09-08 01:41:16
Ensure you reply <a href="http://www.nfl49ersfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Eric-Reid-Jersey/">Eric Reid 49ers Jersey</a>  quickly to make sure customers don't feel ignored. When doing the consultat <a href="http://www.nfl49ersfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Ian-Williams-Jersey/">Womens Ian Williams Jersey</a> ions for registration,Eric Reid 49ers Jersey, those who do not have the full amount may not be registered.Dogs only understand always or never. This selection not just means they are e <a href="http://www.nfl49ersfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Ahkello-Witherspoon-Jersey/">Ahkello Witherspoon 49ers Jersey</a> asier to clean however t
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-09-07 20:49:40
Author's Resource BoxAndrea Rains Waggener, author  <a href="http://www.teamnflpackersshop.com/Don-Barclay-Packers-Jersey/">ackers Don Barclay Jersey</a> of Dog Parenting?How to Ha <a href="http://www.teamnflpackersshop.com/Jordy-Nelson-Packers-Jersey/">Jordy Nelson Jersey</a> ve an Outrageously Happy, Well-adjusted Canine, offers free basic dog training tips at http: Partial Demolition and RemovalThis technique involves the demolition of the top fe <a href="http://www.teamnflpackersshop.com/Letroy-Guion-Packers-Jersey/">Letroy Guion Jersey</a> w feet of the swimming pool and placing the soil
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-09-07 00:33:02
They will always look forward to a <a href="http://www.nflcowboysfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Cedric-Thornton-Jersey/">Cedric Thornton Cowboys Jersey</a> dmit more children and take care of them.In other words <a href="http://www.nflcowboysfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Larry-Allen-Jersey/">Larry Allen Cowboys Jersey</a> , by doing nothing, you?ll stop your dog from jumping. As a car owner, you may wish to be in possession of a car whose car wheels are in line with your personal preferences.Why i <a href="http://www.nflcowboysfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Chidobe-Awuzie-Jersey/">Authentic Chidobe Awuzie Jersey</a> s this? When a franchise presents
 

评分:0

我来说两句

显示全部

:loveliness: :handshake :victory: :funk: :time: :kiss: :call: :hug: :lol :'( :Q :L ;P :$ :P :o :@ :D :( :)

日历

« 2017-09-20  
     12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930

数据统计

  • 访问量: 105997
  • 日志数: 451
  • 建立时间: 2007-12-19
  • 更新时间: 2013-03-25

RSS订阅

Open Toolbar