中国房地产最具影响力的独立评论家,中国地产营销实战派,中国博客营销理论的首创者,游历广泛,著述颇丰,成功案例比比皆是。任职过大报版面主编,深圳晚报副总经理,分众传媒副总经理,锋尚传媒CEO,投身地产策划,博客营销,图书出版等,业余时间写小说,现居住深圳.2006-2007年度新浪网10大优秀地产博客,2006中国社会责任优秀博客,2006深圳10大地产博客,2006深圳10大最具思想博客

牛刀:中国经济主要的推动力是投资和出口。

上一篇 / 下一篇  2013-03-25 16:33:09 / 精华(3) / 置顶(1)


牛刀 房地产评论人士。“地产三剑客”之一。
  2012年现在说
  “半年后(2013年3月),房价泡沫破灭,中国经济开始转型。”
  “对经济趋势性判断谁都可以说。我依然认为2013年中国房价泡沫将破灭。”
  称崩盘将出现在中国
  新京报:去年9月,你判断今年3月中国的房价泡沫将会破灭,如今3月已至,你还坚持这个判断吗?依据是什么?
  牛刀:我的原文是:立帖为证,中国房价泡沫顶多再撑半年。半年后,房价泡沫破灭,中国经济开始转型。也就是今年3月份政策会明确,因为新政府已经交接,这是内因;外因是美元指数开始走强,对中国经济冲击很大。我的这一判断,已经被事实证明是对的。
  新京报:能详细解释一下你所说的“内因”和“外因”吗?
  牛刀:中国经济主要的推动力是投资和出口。对楼市来说,每年有两笔资金会流进楼市,构成了中国楼市新增投机资金的主流:一笔是政府投资产生大量的灰色收入,另一笔新增资金是出口退税的钱。
  今年新政府反腐力度加大,投资产生的灰色收入这部分资金有所收敛;而在出口退税方面,中国的出口企业已经出现全线亏损,如果美元指数继续涨,大宗资产价格会狂跌,所谓廉价资源在国际上已经不廉价,很多产业债务链会断裂,市场会大幅萎缩,很多出口企业会破产,出口受到毁灭性打击。基于这两方面的判断,中国楼市投机资金在2013年会出现大幅萎缩,甚至枯竭。
  中国楼市一旦失去新增资金,结果可想而知。在此同时,可能会遭遇人民币汇率崩盘。日本当年就是在这种背景下出现日元贬值迹象,导致楼市其他资金纷纷流向外汇,直接刺破了房价泡沫。日本当年出现的崩盘一幕,很快将出现在中国。
  “我越来越接近真理”
  新京报:此前,有专家从“城镇化”、“人均收入翻倍”、“改革是最大的红利”三个方面分析得到结论:2013年的房价必然“大涨”。你认为这些依据是否有道理?
  牛刀:扯淡的事。这种概念性的炒作都是骗人。
  新京报:你从2005年开始的多次预测,除了2007年与徐滇庆的对赌之外,少有胜局。如何看待自己此前的多番预言?
  牛刀:这完全是胡说,我2006年才开博客,2007年陷进一场赌局才开始研究房价问题。什么叫胜,什么叫输,与我毫不相干。我只谈自己的观点,楼市一错再错,再错下去只有崩溃。
  新京报:对自己这些年的预测结果的准确性作何评价?是否后悔过?
  牛刀:我的观点你爱听就听,不听拉倒。我从不后悔,因为我追求的是真理。按照经济规律谈经济,大体错不了。
  新京报:这些年来,没有哪一个时期让你觉得应该改变一下判断吗?
  牛刀:我越来越接近真理。我改变什么?
  “我没有钱买豪宅”
  新京报:很多网友说,因为受到你们空方专家的言论影响,他们在买房置业的好机会面前“踏空”了。对这些人,你有没有什么想说的?
  牛刀:什么叫做踏空,你难道只活三五年吗?机会多得很,而唯独不要冲进泡沫当中。这些网友要算一笔账,2008年2000元人民币的购买力能当现在的一万元,而且比现在生活还要好。什么原因?就是2009年大肆印钞导致人民币在国内的购买力急剧下降。房价涨得越多泡沫就越大,很快就跌得更惨。这是规律。
  新京报:有人说你的唱空是迎合民粹意见,以此获取知名度。也有人说你虽然打赌不断唱空房价,自己却置业买豪宅。
  牛刀:完全扯淡。我只是和曹建海熟悉后响应他的号召,向高房价挑战而已,不是什么民粹,更不是什么获取知名度,也没人拥护我。相反,拥护时寒冰、曹建海的人更多。他们才是意见领袖,我只是草根。我没有钱买豪宅。
  新京报:许多经济学家都同意,“经济具有不可预测性”,同样楼市也是难以预测的。你在每次做出判断的时候,考虑过这些预测可能带来的影响吗?
  牛刀:没谁去做什么预测。但是,对经济趋势性判断谁都可以说。我依然认为2013年中国房价泡沫将破灭。
站内搜索:

TAG: 中国房价 中国经济 中国楼市

引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2017-11-21 02:10:20
In fact the Business named Camelot who are the operatives o <a href="http://www.steelersapparelsshop.com/alejandro-villanueva-steelers-jersey-c-62/">Alejandro Villanueva Womens Jersey</a> f the UKNational Lotteryrecently discovered <a href="http://www.steelersapparelsshop.com/tyson-alualu-steelers-jersey-c-83/">Tyson Alualu Steelers Jersey</a>  that 1 in 4 Jackpots are won in syndicate. You ought to established yourself beyond the rest and protect yourself against the most unfortunate. To know more about how best to pay off your mortgage
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2017-11-18 14:10:41
As a result of distinction, a medium  <a href="http://www.authenticpatriotsprostore.com/brandin-cooks-jersey/">Brandin Cooks Patriots Jersey</a> chance will historically allow for an attacker towards buy into the approach <a href="http://www.authenticpatriotsprostore.com/jacoby-brissett-jersey/">Jacoby Brissett Patriots Jersey</a>  previously mentioned a for a longer time period of time of season.3 Key Competitors3 SWOT Analysis3. importance in cold stores, outside charge in winter,Brandin Cooks Patriots Jersey, e <a href="http://www.authenticpatriotsprostore.com/cyrus-jones-jersey/">Cyrus Jones Jersey</a> t
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-11-18 09:11:44
Once the student h <a href="http://www.rangersauthenticofficial.com/kevin-hayes-jersey/">Kevin Hayes Jersey</a> as mastered the program and learned the tricks of the trade through experi <a href="http://www.rangersauthenticofficial.com/nick-holden-jersey/">Nick Holden Rangers Jersey</a> ences shared by others, they can instantly improve their concentration levels and excel at something they thought was not possible. Once you will  <a href="http://www.rangersauthenticofficial.com/tanner-glass-jersey/">Tanner Glass Jersey</a> be confirmed they match your variety criterion, you may go for
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-11-17 04:48:04
Motorola droid 3 offers a lot of unique applications any  <a href="http://www.teamnfldolphinsshop.com/authentic-cordrea-tankersley-dolphins-jersey/">Womens Cordrea Tankersley Jersey</a> one of these as ema <a href="http://www.teamnfldolphinsshop.com/authentic-charles-harris-dolphins-jersey/">Charles Harris Dolphins Jersey</a> il,Womens Cordrea Tankersley Jersey, Gmail, MMS and SMS services. Successful administration of suppliers and supplier installments plays a vital part in the education and instructional courses business’ monetary health. Mor <a href="http://www.teamnfldolphinsshop.com/authentic-larry-csonka-dolphins-jersey/">Larry Csonka Jersey</a> e
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-11-16 22:11:25
Smallne <a href="http://www.footballcardinalsofficialonline.com/authentic-david-johnson-cardinals-jersey/">David Johnson Kids Jersey</a> ss of spot for new paraphernalias development since Juhu Seaside to South Mumba <a href="http://www.footballcardinalsofficialonline.com/">Cheap Cardinals Jersey</a> i has made the home rates of this type to shoot skywards <em><strong><a href="com godrej prana undri pune by godrej properties review < a>< strong>< em> consideration economy has established a massive pool of youn <a href="http://www.footballcardinalsofficialonline.com/authentic-david-johnson-cardinals-jersey/">Cheap David Johnson Jersey</a> g
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2017-11-15 19:53:34
Som <a href="http://www.teamrealmadridsoccershop.com/Authentic-Lucas-Silva-Futbol-Jersey.html">Lucas Silva Real Madrid Jersey</a> e dogs pic <a href="http://www.teamrealmadridsoccershop.com/Authentic-Danilo-Futbol-Jersey.html">Authentic Danilo Jersey</a> k up things quickly,Lucas Silva Real Madrid Jersey, and some take more time. There are many aspects of your body and each one has to be taken care of within the proper method. After you purchase swimsuits for women,Authentic Danilo Jersey, you will have money remaining to buy suits for
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-11-15 15:32:45
Designed by famed architect Walter de Garmo, its Mediterra <a href="http://www.nflcowboysfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Deion-Sanders-Jersey/">Authentic Deion Sanders Jersey</a> nean Renaissance open air design features large  <a href="http://www.nflcowboysfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Troy-Aikman-Jersey/">Womens Troy Aikman Jersey</a> loggias,Authentic Deion Sanders Jersey, Spanish arches,Womens Troy Aikman Jersey, colorful Havana tile, many original fixtures and Cuban handcrafted furnishings. By not making it simple, they w <a href="http://www.nflcowboysfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Chidobe-Awuzie-Jersey/">Chidobe Awuzie Jersey</a> i
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-11-15 08:49:08
These Asian telemar <a href="http://www.buccaneersauthenticonline.com/authentic-doug-martin-buccaneers-jersey/">Doug Martin Buccaneers Jersey</a> keting companies prov <a href="http://www.buccaneersauthenticonline.com/authentic-lavonte-david-buccaneers-jersey/">Womens Lavonte David Jersey</a> ide their service to businesses all around the world. The Shamu show is not to be missed. When the shoes are just not working out for your after the purchase you will have the option of returning them without any  <a href="http://www.buccaneersauthenticonline.com/authentic-desean-jackson-buccaneers-jersey/">DeSean Jackson Jersey Sale</a> trouble. A little complement about how beautifu
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2017-11-14 09:55:58
Check the SeaWorld website before you go to se <a href="http://www.patriotsnflfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Donald-Trump-Jersey/">Authentic Donald Trump Jersey</a> e if y <a href="http://www.patriotsnflfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Julian-Edelman-Jersey/">Julian Edelman Jersey</a> ou can get a good deal. One would know where and when the person was arrested. Together with free shipping, you have the opportunity to wear suits from all over the world. Either which, both provide professional, <a href="http://www.patriotsnflfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Deatrich-Wise-Jr-Jersey/">Deatrich Wise Jr. Patriots Jersey</a>  high-quality and skilled telesales
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-11-14 09:55:28
To hi <a href="http://www.patriotsnflfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Stephon-Gilmore-Jersey/">Womens Stephon Gilmore Jersey</a> re a suitable telemarket <a href="http://www.patriotsnflfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Rob-Gronkowski-Jersey/">Rob Gronkowski Patriots Jersey</a> ing company cuts productions costs in comparison to assembling the service themselves. Yes,Womens Stephon Gilmore Jersey, it is certainly possible to save your marriage <a href="http://www.patriotsnflfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Julian-Edelman-Jersey/">Womens Julian Edelman Jersey</a> .lipoguide. It is almost always remedied with a little dose of an oral corticosteroid, like prednisone.
引用 删除 shekplos7p   /   2017-11-14 08:47:40
The web is a treasure trove of informat <a href="http://www.cheapoutletjerseys.us.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys Wholesale</a> ion with all websites claiming to impart the best  <a href="http://www.cheapoutletjerseys.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys From China</a> information.Article From Article Directory DatabaseDo you want to brighten up your next event and help provide Cheap NFL Jerseys Wholesale the sort of memories that will last a lifetime? Do you want <a href="http://www.cheapoutletjerseys.us.com/">Wholesale NFL Jerseys Cheap</a>  to create a
引用 删除 shekplos4x   /   2017-11-14 06:05:10
Candidates who crash weight reduction plan can even exper <a href="http://www.mlbshop.us.com/New-York-Yankees-Authentic-Tyler-Clippard-Jersey/">Tyler Clippard Jersey</a> tise starvation pangs, bou <a href="http://www.mlbshop.us.com/Los-Angeles-Angels-Of-Anaheim-Authentic-Cliff-Pennington-Jersey/">Cliff Pennington Jersey</a> ts of hypoglycemia, complications, and mood adjustments from overly stringent dieting which can all result in binge consuming and weight gain. In other words, verify your consum <a href="http://www.mlbshop.us.com/Philadelphia-Phillies-Authentic-Greg-Luzinski-Jersey/">Greg Luzinski Jersey</a> ers feel like they are interacting with
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2017-11-13 07:51:38
Most of these Potato c <a href="http://www.footballcardinalsofficialonline.com/authentic-david-johnson-cardinals-jersey/">Womens David Johnson Jersey</a> hips are generally labelled in several denom <a href="http://www.footballcardinalsofficialonline.com/authentic-patrick-peterson-cardinals-jersey/">atrick Peterson Jersey</a> inations and therefore are inside the colors associated with light,Womens David Johnson Jersey, crimson and also violet.Prognostic indicators - Through study <a href="http://www.footballcardinalsofficialonline.com/authentic-kurt-warner-cardinals-jersey/">Authentic Kurt Warner Jersey</a> ing qualities of people with and without the conditions, physicians are start
引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2017-11-13 04:08:09
hatches file. On the web you can find suits that  <a href="http://www.nflgiantsfansclub.com/Giants-Brandon-Marshall-Jersey/">Womens Brandon Marshall Jersey</a> wi <a href="http://www.nflgiantsfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Lawrence-Taylor-Jersey/">Lawrence Taylor Jersey</a> ll not be well-known,Womens Brandon Marshall Jersey, but are ideal for your needs.To hire a suitable telemarketing company cuts productions costs in comparison to assembling the service themselves. You can too choose to make the  <a href="http://www.nflgiantsfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Mark-Bavaro-Jersey/">Authentic Mark Bavaro Jersey</a> items extra personal
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-11-12 22:47:29
Cash is a fuel that drives your beauty products retail busin <a href="http://www.theraptorsshop.us/serge-ibaka-raptors-jersey/">Serge Ibaka Jersey</a> ess. The schools  <a href="http://www.theraptorsshop.us/pj-tucker-raptors-jersey/">Authentic PJ Tucker Jersey</a> have well designed and air conditioned and fanned rooms for the comfort of kids. Offering classes to customers that are related to your business model can be a great way to help customers, <a href="http://www.theraptorsshop.us/tracy-mcgrady-raptors-jersey/">Authentic Tracy Mcgrady Jersey</a>  encourage them to buy more product
引用 删除 shekplos4x   /   2017-11-12 17:17:29
Many of the mar <a href="http://www.thenbauk.com/los-angeles-clippers-marreese-speights-jersey/">Marreese Speights Jersey UK</a> ine  <a href="http://www.thenbauk.com/New-York-Knicks-Allan-Houston-Jersey/">Allan Houston Jersey UK</a> transport companies Singapore have marine insurance in order to have lesser or limited loos during bad climates and other seasons.Which might you choose?Maybe earlier than you start occupied with droppin <a href="http://www.thenbauk.com/Portland-Trail-Blazers-Brandon-Roy-Jersey/">Brandon Roy Jersey UK</a> g pounds you should take a second to examine what you eat. (19) Washington Nat
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-11-12 08:17:52
Once you have chosen the keywords that you will use throughout your site, inc <a href="http://www.buccaneersauthenticonline.com/authentic-doug-martin-buccaneers-jersey/">Womens Doug Martin Jersey</a> orporate them into yo <a href="http://www.buccaneersauthenticonline.com/authentic-desean-jackson-buccaneers-jersey/">Womens DeSean Jackson Jersey</a> ur page title, as well. In case you would like to create a phone call that you can do this by moving away from the actual table as long as you usually are not in a side. There are hundreds of offshore  <a href="http://www.buccaneersauthenticonline.com/authentic-jameis-winston-buccaneers-jersey/">Authentic Jameis Winston Jersey</a> f
引用 删除 shekplos7p   /   2017-11-12 07:18:32
If your <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenflauthenticjerseys.us.com/">Wholesale Jerseys</a>  goal is to improve the value of your home, f <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenflauthenticjerseys.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys China</a> ocus on things buyers will notice – but if you want to create a more comfortable home for yourself, there are plenty of other improvement projects you can work on. Pr <a href="http://www.cheapwholesalenflauthenticjerseys.us.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys</a> oper hiring will give you Wholesale Jerseys a better chance of succeeding and endi
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2017-11-12 06:17:16
Chances are <a href="http://www.shopthepelicansonline.com/womens-kendrick-perkins-basketball-jersey/">Kendrick Perkins Jersey</a>  you’ll decide that you really want an u <a href="http://www.shopthepelicansonline.com/womens-omer-asik-basketball-jersey/">Omer Asik Jersey</a> nique marriage ceremony dress. Even though going to the stores is a fun way to shop for shoes there are better options these days. You want them to be a success with everyone. This is unlike the yo <a href="http://www.shopthepelicansonline.com/womens-demarcus-cousins-basketball-jersey/">Authentic DeMarcus Cousins Jersey</a> ur local retail stores which will transfer all the c
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2017-11-12 03:06:22
If you're working a very small business then you will doubtless wish to handle t <a href="http://www.teamnflsteelersshop.com/authentic-sammie-coates-steelers-jersey/">Authentic Sammie Coates Jersey</a> he reward shopping for on your own. Dogs frequently will r <a href="http://www.teamnflsteelersshop.com/authentic-cameron-heyward-steelers-jersey/">Cameron Heyward Kids Jersey</a> esume exactly the same spot to pee or defecate inside of the residence. It will be easier for crawlers to properly index this way.If you're a thrill seeker, the  <a href="http://www.teamnflsteelersshop.com/authentic-tj-watt-steelers-jersey/">Authentic T. J. Watt Jersey</a> p
 

评分:0

我来说两句

显示全部

:loveliness: :handshake :victory: :funk: :time: :kiss: :call: :hug: :lol :'( :Q :L ;P :$ :P :o :@ :D :( :)

日历

« 2017-11-21  
   1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
2627282930  

数据统计

  • 访问量: 106179
  • 日志数: 451
  • 建立时间: 2007-12-19
  • 更新时间: 2013-03-25

RSS订阅

Open Toolbar