中国房地产最具影响力的独立评论家,中国地产营销实战派,中国博客营销理论的首创者,游历广泛,著述颇丰,成功案例比比皆是。任职过大报版面主编,深圳晚报副总经理,分众传媒副总经理,锋尚传媒CEO,投身地产策划,博客营销,图书出版等,业余时间写小说,现居住深圳.2006-2007年度新浪网10大优秀地产博客,2006中国社会责任优秀博客,2006深圳10大地产博客,2006深圳10大最具思想博客

牛刀:中国经济主要的推动力是投资和出口。

上一篇 / 下一篇  2013-03-25 16:33:09 / 精华(3) / 置顶(1)


牛刀 房地产评论人士。“地产三剑客”之一。
  2012年现在说
  “半年后(2013年3月),房价泡沫破灭,中国经济开始转型。”
  “对经济趋势性判断谁都可以说。我依然认为2013年中国房价泡沫将破灭。”
  称崩盘将出现在中国
  新京报:去年9月,你判断今年3月中国的房价泡沫将会破灭,如今3月已至,你还坚持这个判断吗?依据是什么?
  牛刀:我的原文是:立帖为证,中国房价泡沫顶多再撑半年。半年后,房价泡沫破灭,中国经济开始转型。也就是今年3月份政策会明确,因为新政府已经交接,这是内因;外因是美元指数开始走强,对中国经济冲击很大。我的这一判断,已经被事实证明是对的。
  新京报:能详细解释一下你所说的“内因”和“外因”吗?
  牛刀:中国经济主要的推动力是投资和出口。对楼市来说,每年有两笔资金会流进楼市,构成了中国楼市新增投机资金的主流:一笔是政府投资产生大量的灰色收入,另一笔新增资金是出口退税的钱。
  今年新政府反腐力度加大,投资产生的灰色收入这部分资金有所收敛;而在出口退税方面,中国的出口企业已经出现全线亏损,如果美元指数继续涨,大宗资产价格会狂跌,所谓廉价资源在国际上已经不廉价,很多产业债务链会断裂,市场会大幅萎缩,很多出口企业会破产,出口受到毁灭性打击。基于这两方面的判断,中国楼市投机资金在2013年会出现大幅萎缩,甚至枯竭。
  中国楼市一旦失去新增资金,结果可想而知。在此同时,可能会遭遇人民币汇率崩盘。日本当年就是在这种背景下出现日元贬值迹象,导致楼市其他资金纷纷流向外汇,直接刺破了房价泡沫。日本当年出现的崩盘一幕,很快将出现在中国。
  “我越来越接近真理”
  新京报:此前,有专家从“城镇化”、“人均收入翻倍”、“改革是最大的红利”三个方面分析得到结论:2013年的房价必然“大涨”。你认为这些依据是否有道理?
  牛刀:扯淡的事。这种概念性的炒作都是骗人。
  新京报:你从2005年开始的多次预测,除了2007年与徐滇庆的对赌之外,少有胜局。如何看待自己此前的多番预言?
  牛刀:这完全是胡说,我2006年才开博客,2007年陷进一场赌局才开始研究房价问题。什么叫胜,什么叫输,与我毫不相干。我只谈自己的观点,楼市一错再错,再错下去只有崩溃。
  新京报:对自己这些年的预测结果的准确性作何评价?是否后悔过?
  牛刀:我的观点你爱听就听,不听拉倒。我从不后悔,因为我追求的是真理。按照经济规律谈经济,大体错不了。
  新京报:这些年来,没有哪一个时期让你觉得应该改变一下判断吗?
  牛刀:我越来越接近真理。我改变什么?
  “我没有钱买豪宅”
  新京报:很多网友说,因为受到你们空方专家的言论影响,他们在买房置业的好机会面前“踏空”了。对这些人,你有没有什么想说的?
  牛刀:什么叫做踏空,你难道只活三五年吗?机会多得很,而唯独不要冲进泡沫当中。这些网友要算一笔账,2008年2000元人民币的购买力能当现在的一万元,而且比现在生活还要好。什么原因?就是2009年大肆印钞导致人民币在国内的购买力急剧下降。房价涨得越多泡沫就越大,很快就跌得更惨。这是规律。
  新京报:有人说你的唱空是迎合民粹意见,以此获取知名度。也有人说你虽然打赌不断唱空房价,自己却置业买豪宅。
  牛刀:完全扯淡。我只是和曹建海熟悉后响应他的号召,向高房价挑战而已,不是什么民粹,更不是什么获取知名度,也没人拥护我。相反,拥护时寒冰、曹建海的人更多。他们才是意见领袖,我只是草根。我没有钱买豪宅。
  新京报:许多经济学家都同意,“经济具有不可预测性”,同样楼市也是难以预测的。你在每次做出判断的时候,考虑过这些预测可能带来的影响吗?
  牛刀:没谁去做什么预测。但是,对经济趋势性判断谁都可以说。我依然认为2013年中国房价泡沫将破灭。
站内搜索:

TAG: 中国房价 中国经济 中国楼市

引用 删除 shekplos6z   /   2018-01-22 02:43:28
You may use the valuable advice an <a href="http://www.nflbillsfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Jim-Kelly-Jersey/">Jim Kelly Bills Jersey</a> d pointers in this post to create your journeys pleasurable and headache  <a href="http://www.nflbillsfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Lesean-Mccoy-Jersey/">Womens LeSean McCoy Jersey</a> free. It is a common belief that women love jewelries while men prefer clothes. It also heals the damaged nerves and tissues caused due to excessive masturbation. An excell <a href="http://www.nflbillsfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Tre-Davious-White-Jersey/">Tre'Davious White Jersey</a> ent expert has morals
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-01-21 23:08:30
Having a directory lets the online business know how visitors can locate the <a href="http://www.teamoilersmall.com/leon-draisaitl-hockey-jersey/">Authentic Leon Draisaitl Jersey</a> m  <a href="http://www.teamoilersmall.com/ryan-nugent-hopkins-hockey-jersey/">Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Jersey</a> with the help of specific keywords searches, geographic searches. Serotonin is also involved in impulse control. For each muscle,Authentic Leon Draisaitl Jersey, you should work on a stretching, contraction and mid-range  <a href="http://www.teamoilersmall.com/ryan-nugent-hopkins-hockey-jersey/">Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Oilers Jersey</a> m
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-01-21 19:03:56
Also, the laws governing the real es <a href="http://www.nflgiantsfansclub.com/hoodie/">Cheap New York Giants Hoodie</a> tate are sometimes very complicated. Soms is het geschikt gemarkeerd  <a href="http://www.nflgiantsfansclub.com/Black-Friday-Lawrence-Taylor-Jersey/">Lawrence Taylor Jersey</a> door simpelweg nike stenen gekanteld die toevallig worden gebouwd voor geschoolde NBA concurrenten evenals deze sneakers worden meestal continu beschouwd als hoge kwali <a href="http://www.nflgiantsfansclub.com/Giants-Brandon-Marshall-Jersey/">Brandon Marshall Giants Jersey</a> teit producten en oplossing
引用 删除 shekplos7p   /   2018-01-21 08:20:10
Sports betting software  <a href="http://www.cheapnbajerseyschinashop.com/">Wholesale NBA Jerseys Cheap</a> program accessible ins <a href="http://www.cheapnbajerseyschinashop.com/">Cheap Jerseys From China</a> ide the marketplace is user pleasant and no hardships are knowledgeable in installing or employing it.This mix of cultures and races is most <a href="http://www.cheapnbajerseyschinashop.com/">Wholesale NBA Jerseys China</a>  Wholesale NBA Jerseys Cheap dominant in the exquisite cuisine of the country.If Cheap Jerseys From China you're r
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-01-21 06:54:19
The out o <a href="http://www.thebillsshoponline.com/Youth-Lorenzo-Alexander-Bills-Jersey/">Authentic Lorenzo Alexander Jersey</a> f box video settings are set to “vivid”. You ma <a href="http://www.thebillsshoponline.com/Nathan-Peterman-Bills-Jersey/">Nathan Peterman Youth Jersey</a> y also look for the same colour of the glass,Authentic Lorenzo Alexander Jersey, but with a white tinge,Nathan Peterman Youth Jersey, separating the colours.articlemarketing. If you love the outdoors then thi <a href="http://www.thebillsshoponline.com/Youth-Shaq-Lawson-Bills-Jersey/">Bills Shaq Lawson Jersey</a> s is ideal for you. Employee input w
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-01-21 04:16:45
M <a href="http://www.nbasunsshop.com/Authentic-Dragan-Bender-Suns-Jersey/">Dragan Bender Jersey</a> ensen die dit <a href="http://www.nbasunsshop.com/Authentic-Brandon-Knight-Suns-Jersey/">Brandon Knight Jersey</a>  dragen stijl en design Conna? Tara maximale Nike Air Max 90 Femme persoonlijke Nike Air Force 1 Womens keuze van beweging toegestaan door <a href="http://www.nbasunsshop.com/Authentic-Jared-Dudley-Suns-Jersey/">Jared Dudley Womens Jersey</a>  de volledig gereduceerde vorm, die het mogelijk maakt vaak passage van het anker eenvoudiger. As soon as you’ve prepared adequately plus gotten reg
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2018-01-20 22:59:18
The Low <a href="http://www.teamnflpackersshop.com/Ray-Nitschke-Packers-Jersey/">Ray Nitschke Rodgers Jersey</a> lands festival foc <a href="http://www.teamnflpackersshop.com/Aaron-Rodgers-Packers-Jersey/">Aaron Rodgers Jersey</a> uses on alternative music, but also offers many cultural programs with visual arts,Ray Nitschke Rodgers Jersey, literature, film and theater events. To be safe, check  <a href="http://www.teamnflpackersshop.com/Jordy-Nelson-Packers-Jersey/">Jordy Nelson Jersey</a> with your doctor before beginning use. These exotic facilities help the children group of society to grow wi
引用 删除 shekplos2g   /   2018-01-20 19:51:22
Various other times t <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseyscheap.com/">Wholesale Jerseys Cheap</a> he reason they cal <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseyscheap.com/">Cheap Jerseys From China</a> l you could be much scarier. Unless of course your numbers are higher, this will only injured you. In addition, lack of exercise tends to dampen male hormone production, <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseyscheap.com/">http://www.wholesalenfljerseyscheap.com/</a>  which in turn decreases sensual drive. This method can take several days before the request
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-01-20 15:06:40
Thanh Kohnz   Submitted 2014 02 02 10:41:11 Sometimes it' <a href="http://www.thetitansshoponline.com/Youth-Eric-Decker-Titans-Jersey/">Eric Decker Youth Jersey</a> s good to chat to people and talk about your concerns with them.c <a href="http://www.thetitansshoponline.com/Corey-Davis-Titans-Jersey/">Authentic Corey Davis Jersey</a> om  Follow us on twitter: https:twitter. Just be sure to measure your sofa and other furniture before moving them around; this will prevent you from trying to fit your furniture <a href="http://www.thetitansshoponline.com/Youth-Kevin-Dodd-Titans-Jersey/">Kevin Dodd Jersey</a>
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-01-19 18:11:37
But this really is so unrealistic that it really sets you up for disappointment <a href="http://www.buccaneersauthenticonline.com/authentic-mike-evans-buccaneers-jersey/">Mike Evans Jersey</a> . Most of the 5-HTP produced in the body comes from its manufacture in the in <a href="http://www.buccaneersauthenticonline.com/authentic-kendell-beckwith-buccaneers-jersey/">Kendell Beckwith Buccaneers Jersey</a> testines from tryptophan. One can also gift them to his near and dear ones in occasions like Christmas or Birthday. There are play schools,Mike <a href="http://www.buccaneersauthenticonline.com/authentic-oj-howard-buccaneers-jersey/">O. J. Howard Jersey</a>
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2018-01-19 14:54:34
A dinosaur baby shower invitation  <a href="http://www.teamnflsteelersshop.com/authentic-jack-lambert-steelers-jersey/">Jack Lambert Jersey</a> is always a hit <a href="http://www.teamnflsteelersshop.com/authentic-jerome-bettis-steelers-jersey/">Womens Jerome Bettis Jersey</a>  for baby boys. When your crew will start dropping individuals in you can have innings that last an hour. Then a session is prepared for all the experts who give thei <a href="http://www.teamnflsteelersshop.com/authentic-sammie-coates-steelers-jersey/">Sammie Coates Steelers Jersey</a> r opinions together and a solution is reached regarding the case study so that their
引用 删除 shekplos4x   /   2018-01-19 13:36:19
People are more inclined to pu <a href="http://www.baseballshopuk.com/washington-nationals-shawn-kelley-jersey-uk/">Shawn Kelley Jersey UK</a> rchase a sash produ <a href="http://www.baseballshopuk.com/washington-nationals-ryan-zimmerman-jersey-uk/">Ryan Zimmerman Jersey UK</a> ct that they can return for a refund if they are unsatisfied in comparison to sashes that can’t be returned. The report finds that shipment value  <a href="http://www.baseballshopuk.com/houston-astros-lance-mccullers-jersey-uk/">Lance McCullers Jersey UK</a> of the Taiwanese IC packaging and testing industry continued to expand in the third quarter of 2013,Shawn
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-01-19 08:52:33
This is very important for those who cannot afford  <a href="http://www.teamchargersmall.com/Youth-Mike-Williams-Chargers-Jersey/">Mike Williams Jersey</a> particular products. A company w <a href="http://www.teamchargersmall.com/Youth-Philip-Rivers-Chargers-Jersey/">hilip Rivers Jersey</a> ith the modern 3 D signage also commands aspiration from the people on street,Mike Williams Jersey, subtly nudging them to enter inside with the hope of latest goodies from a trendy store. The colour option which the <a href="http://www.teamchargersmall.com/Youth-Dan-Feeney-Chargers-Jersey/">Chargers Dan Feeney Jersey</a> y
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-01-19 04:11:00
If you decide to partner with, I wish to make sure the bus <a href="http://www.thedolphinsshoponline.com/Youth-Kenyan-Drake-Dolphins-Jersey/">Dolphins Kenyan Drake Jersey</a> ines <a href="http://www.thedolphinsshoponline.com/Youth-Julius-Thomas-Jersey-Dolphins-Jersey/">Authentic Julius Thomas Jersey</a> s is for you prior to I spend my time training you”. Your Television can be associated to both your cable or satellite box. In order to be kept abreast with their usual product promotions, you need to continually be on the  <a href="http://www.thedolphinsshoponline.com/Youth-Kenyan-Drake-Dolphins-Jersey/">Kenyan Drake Jersey</a> lookout. Larger
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2018-01-18 09:21:38
Andirect flight RDU to BWI. Th <a href="http://www.thedolphinsshoponline.com/Youth-Kenny-Stills-Dolphins-Jersey/">Kenny Stills Youth Jersey</a> is accounta <a href="http://www.thedolphinsshoponline.com/Youth-Charles-Harris-Dolphins-Jersey/">Dolphins Charles Harris Jersey</a> nt job description, whereas detailed, is way more specialized.When I initially heard about the P90X Residence exercise plan it was launched to be by a pal I work with.com, The C <a href="http://www.thedolphinsshoponline.com/Youth-Jay-Ajayi-Dolphins-Jersey/">Jay Ajayi Womens Jersey</a> one Crusher Series Mobile Crusher Plant can be widely used for crushing and scre
引用 删除 shekplos7p   /   2018-01-17 19:58:09
Dior could offer various styles of glasses which <a href="http://www.cheapnbajerseyschinashop.com/">Wholesale NBA Jerseys Cheap</a>  are fashionable and forward. TBS Error:  <a href="http://www.cheapnbajerseyschinashop.com/">Cheap NBA Jerseys Wholesale</a> Your session has expired.As was discussed at the start of this post, building a home based business will not be as hard you might feel.  <a href="http://www.cheapnbajerseyschinashop.com/">Cheap NBA Jerseys Free Shipping</a> Doctor. However, whenever the sequel just not only lives up to the initial
引用 删除 shekplos9t   /   2018-01-17 16:24:44
Author Resource:-After the w <a href="http://www.wholesalenflfootballjerseysshop.com/">Wholesale Jerseys</a> ell-publicized bankruptcy of Digital Domain, a Port St. These firms do not ju <a href="http://www.wholesalenflfootballjerseysshop.com/">Cheap Jerseys China</a> st have an expertise in moving residential furniture, but are equally skilled when it comes to corporate services. The off <a href="http://www.wholesalenflfootballjerseysshop.com/">Wholesale Jerseys Cheap</a> ice accepts mail request as well. Central heating and air conditioning sy
引用 删除 shekplos2g   /   2018-01-15 17:53:07
Proven Methods For Maximizing F <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseysonline.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys China</a> urniture Retail Business ProfitProven Methods For Maximizing Furniture Ret <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseysonline.us.com/">Wholesale NFL Jerseys China</a> ail Business ProfitMay 3, 2013 | Author: Bernie MacRos | Posted in BusinessGood custom furniture retail business owners know how to get  <a href="http://www.wholesalenfljerseysonline.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys China Wholesale</a> their products or services into the marketplace by research
引用 删除 shekplos7p   /   2018-01-15 11:20:20
However, don’t rule out a chiropractor who is a general practit <a href="http://www.cheapjerseyswholesalejerseys.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys From China</a> ioner since many of <a href="http://www.cheapjerseyswholesalejerseys.us.com/">Wholesale Jerseys China</a>  them are well experienced in treating athletes, especially young adults and children.Contact alarms can be placed on doors and windows, along with safety beams on the floor. Practic <a href="http://www.cheapjerseyswholesalejerseys.us.com/">Wholesale NFL Jerseys Free Shipping</a> ally speaking, there can be several
引用 删除 shekplos7p   /   2018-01-14 12:03:18
It is just a good alt <a href="http://www.wholesalecheapnflsportsjerseys.com/">Wholesale Soccer Jerseys From China</a> ernative choice <a href="http://www.wholesalecheapnflsportsjerseys.com/">Wholesale Football Jerseys China</a>  for the gamers. Learn what to pay attention to and what changes you might want to make to your website, in order to stay Wholesale Soccer Jerseys From China ahead of the competition.my miamichiro <a href="http://www.wholesalecheapnflsportsjerseys.com/">Wholesale Baseball Jerseys</a> practor. While coaches stress the need for warm ups, many players gi
 

评分:0

我来说两句

显示全部

:loveliness: :handshake :victory: :funk: :time: :kiss: :call: :hug: :lol :'( :Q :L ;P :$ :P :o :@ :D :( :)

日历

« 2018-01-22  
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28293031   

数据统计

  • 访问量: 106179
  • 日志数: 451
  • 建立时间: 2007-12-19
  • 更新时间: 2013-03-25

RSS订阅

Open Toolbar