水皮,原名吕平波,1964年生,《华夏时报》总编辑。中国著名财经评论家,中央电视台和北京电视台特约评论员。所著著作有《猴市》、《黑庄》、《搏傻》。

如果办个假离婚就可以少交50万税的话你又会做什么样的选择?

上一篇 / 下一篇  2013-03-25 16:27:25 / 精华(3) / 置顶(1)


房地产的事情,房价只是表面现象,本质上还是一个货币发行的问题、土地财政的问题。
 几乎所有的人都知道股市有风险,投资需谨慎,但是几乎没有人会知道,楼市有风险,离婚需谨慎,为什么?不说你也明白。
  国五条的细则出台了,但是到目前为止各地都还没有执行细则,国五条会怎么执行,老百姓心中没数,已经卖房的人就拼命排队等过户,还没卖房的人就想到了假离婚之类的损招,是老百姓缺德吗?恐怕不能这么武断地指责,如果你卖套房平地要多交20%的所得税的话你会兴高采烈?而如果个人惟一住房买卖可以免征的话你不会想办法?2005年到现在房价涨了多少你有概念吗?少则3倍,多则8倍并不是耸人听闻的涨幅,一套100平米的住房因为增值而要缴纳的所得税起码在50万以上,老百姓工薪阶层一辈子又能挣几个50万?如果办个假离婚就可以少交50万税的话你又会做什么样的选择?如果你不让人家假离婚难道还要逼着人家真离婚?
  其实,房地产的事情,房价只是表面现象,本质上还是一个货币发行的问题,土地财政的问题,而这两个问题一个根子在央行,一个根子在财政部,房地产的调控又恰恰由政府主导,限购也好,限售也好,限贷也好,瞄准的目标又都是消费者或投资者,效果如何就可想而知了。
  水皮在微博上转了一张旧报纸,日期是1989年2月20日,不确定是否是《人民日报》,标题是《房价猛涨,百姓望楼兴叹;势在必控,国家正拟法规》,报道说针对多地住宅市场出现的价高、滞销问题,建设部、国家物价局和建设银行正在会同制定《商品房价管理暂行办法》、《关于住宅市场的若干规定》等法规,将明确规定经营者备报成本,图谋厚利属非法行为,商品房价混乱猛涨等现象可望依法纠正。
  当时的房价又混乱到什么程度呢?报道说,上海每平方米最高已经到2300元,令人咋舌。正是因为房价昂贵,上海住宅市场年初推出的11000多套住房,成交不到十分之一,幢幢楼房无人买,几十万平方米空荡荡。上海如此,北京也不怎么样。北京推出了两万多平方米的住房,每平米价格为1600元-1900元,若买两居,少说也要6万元。一名大学生从参加工作起就节衣缩食,每月有50元已是最高极限,想买套房,没有100年不行。最有意思的是,报道对于发展商品房的解释,不是为了别的,正是为了把总数高达5500亿的存款和现金由消费基金转化为生产基金,甚至大量商品房是组织货币回笼的必要办法!
  水皮不知道1989年的M2是多少,但是知道2001年的M2是11万亿,知道2013年的M2是100万亿,M2和GDP的比值科学不科学,能不能和通胀画等号,大家搞不懂也不必懂,大家只要知道十年之中,M2增加了10倍就可以了。现在的银行居民存款又是多少呢?2012年中国城乡居民的存款余额接近40万亿,而在2000年这个数字是64000多亿,2010年是30万亿。和1989年相比,老百姓手中的余钱整整翻了80倍,房价房价是靠人民币定价的,和1989年的2000元相比,现在北京的房价差不多翻了20倍-25倍,但是和居民存款的增长相比,房价究竟是涨是跌每个人会有自己的结论,差异在于房价可以用平均数表达,但是居民的存款决不能用平均数表示,因为贫富差异在当今的中国太大,80%的存款增长只不过在20%的人群手上体现,绝大多数的老百姓的存款并没有这个巨大的增长,但却要面对相同的房价上涨。
  二十年太久,仅以十年时间为限,买房是否也足以让人分立不同阶层,十年前毕业的同班同学,一个人拿着父母给的20万买了辆车还泡了个妞,而另一个人则买了套房付了个首付。十年以后,车报废了一文不值,而按揭的住房却增值了千万,消费者成了无产阶级,投资者成了资产阶级。一般情况下,泡妞的这辈子都再不可能买得起目前的房,除了羡慕、嫉妒,也就只有恨了,这能怪政府吗?
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