水皮,原名吕平波,1964年生,《华夏时报》总编辑。中国著名财经评论家,中央电视台和北京电视台特约评论员。所著著作有《猴市》、《黑庄》、《搏傻》。

水皮:中国股市并没有真正成为中国经济的晴雨表

上一篇 / 下一篇  2013-08-15 14:17:30 / 精华(3) / 置顶(1)


中国股市并没有真正成为中国经济的晴雨表,但是这并不意味着中国经济,尤其是关键的经济数据不会成为影响外围股市的重要因素。显而易见的是,每当这些数据公布之时,无论欧美还是亚洲主要市场,指数均会因此而出现波动。

  刚刚公布的7月数据表示,中国进出口双双转正,进口增长10%,出口增长则达5%。仅仅根据这个数据的变化,境外舆论普遍乐观,中国经济增速减缓或已在上半年见底。稍后公布的工业经济增长率9.5%和降幅减小的PPI负2.3%以及不到2.8%的CPI事实上也构成了这种判断的支撑,中国官方公布的PMI值已经超过51,这个数值代表着中国的经理们对未来的预期已经转为看多,尽管汇丰的同样数据并不理想,但如果考虑到后者更多来源于中小企业主的调查,那么时间差也是一种客观存在的可能。

  中国经济可能出现“硬着陆”的信号着实让老外大吃一惊,《日本经济新闻》报道称,7月28日,美国国防大学国家战略研究所的美军研究员降落在北京机场,任务是来中国调查经济崩溃对美国国家安全保障的影响。中国资源需求和投资减少将对中东和非洲的稳定造成哪些影响?是否存在中国移民激增的可能性?据称,相关报告将由美国国防部长和美军参谋长联席会议主席等人过目。为应对中国经济“硬着陆”,美军已经开始采取行动了。

  如果说来自美国军方的动向有点耸人听闻的话,那么美国评级机构标准普尔对于澳大利亚的警告就是非常残酷的现实。标普在周四发表的报告中说,如果中国“硬着陆”导致经济增速降至5%,可能促使澳大利亚陷入经济衰退,失业率飙升至10%。虽然标普认为中国出现如此急剧下滑不太可能,不过一旦出现,则会让倚重矿业的澳大利亚经济丧失3A评级,围绕中国经济前景的不确定性给澳大利亚自身的经济前景投下长长的阴影。澳大利亚的矿山投资热潮似乎已经见顶,GDP也在放缓中。

  境外投资者对于中国7.5%的关注,根本的原因在于中国经济对世界经济扮演的角色,三分之一的角色,即经济增长的三分之一拉动来自中国,所以世界各国的股市要看中国的脸色就不足为奇,奇怪的是中国股市却并不那么给中国经济面子,这6年来,无论中国的GDP是在10%以上还是在8%以下,股市的跌幅都是熊冠全球,道指已经创新高了,但是A股依旧在危机时刻的底部徘徊,如果从指数看中国,中国经济崩溃已经不止二三回了,为什么中国的股市会在全世界人民面前抹黑中国经济?这个问题问投资者是没有答案的,问证监会恐怕也找不到答案。

  现在还有谁好意思说自己是炒股的吗?证监会的官员只有现在才认识到组织上不准自己炒股是对自己多大的保护。据说,上海大妈现在吵架特别文明,嘴里都不带脏字的,只要说你炒股,你们全家都炒股,对方立即哑口无言,落荒而逃。

  当炒股已经成为一个丢人现眼的选择,这个资本市场还有多大正能量可以发挥呢?难怪境外的媒体把中国股市当成了坑害老百姓的“死动物”,话虽难听倒也形象。

  滕泰在微信群里卖了个关子,不肯透露给谁写了份什么样的报告,但是却比较了一堆的数字,若中国股市从2000点涨到3000点,新增流通市值10万亿,其中企业持股增加5万亿左右,从而新增抵押融资贷款能力近2万亿,居民持有市值增加5万亿,从而新增消费能力1万亿以上,这比政府投资4万亿的成本小多少?这套理论叫财富效应,早在1999年肖灼基教授就向时任的总理提过类似的建议,也是所谓“5·19行情”的理论基础,上证指数由1000点起步,冲至1370点附近,《人民日报》发表评论员文章称为恢复性行情。受此鼓舞指数一举突破1500点的历史箱顶冲至1730点附近,回落整理。第二年(2000年)冲至2000点,2001年冲到2245点,形成一段完美的跨年度行情。如今12年过去,指数却在2000点附近挣扎,莫非非得重演“5·19行情”第二才善罢甘休?莫非非得逼李克强表态才长治久安?莫非,历史有惊人的相似?!

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