中国地方债务何处藏身

上一篇 / 下一篇  2013-07-30 14:43:31 / 个人分类:经济趋势


  
    一石激起千层浪,更何况是几粒石子接连不断地抛入其中!来自审计署网站7月28日的消息,根据国务院要求,审计署将组织全国审计机关对政府性债务进行审计,这是最近三年来其第三次“把脉”地方政府性债务。风暴来袭,中国很多地方政府还没有从底特律破产的诧异中觉醒,一剂攻心针猛然刺过来,是要坐以待毙还是寻找地方隐藏起来?
  要说隐藏,这可是中国地方政府的拿手好戏。从审计署于今年6月发布的对36个地方政府本级政府性债务的抽查审计结果来看,截至2012年底,这些政府债务余额超过3.8万亿元人民币,较2010年底增长了近13%。但由于地方债务模式多种多样,借道影子银行的现象非常普遍,债务的不透明增加了统计的难度,实际数据可能比公开数据更高一些。这也就是为什么审计刚刚结束,中央就下决心全面摸清债务情况的原因了。
  路透社最新一篇题为“中国江苏将陷入债务噩梦?”的文章,展示了债务大省江苏正经历的艰难时刻。综观各种分析,江苏或将成为中国地方债的典型代表。一方面,江苏一些主要企业已经被推到悬崖边缘,本月早些时候,中国最大的私营造船厂——熔盛重工集团向江苏政府请求金融救助。而政府融资的主要方法只有两个:贷款和卖地,无力挣扎的无锡市滨湖区政府还曾因现金紧缺,计划降低公务员薪水。
  另一方面,江苏融资开始使用替代措施,如影子银行。深圳用益信托网数据显示,2012年江苏省的各级政府占据了中国售出的投资信托基金的30%,无锡市甚至向信托投资者给出了10%的投资回报率。而且在2013年前5个月间,江苏占据了地方债务增量的40%,如此,说江苏省是中国不良债务的大头一点也不过分。
  据渣打、惠誉和瑞银的预计,中国的地方债占到国家工业产出的15%-36%,而世行对于2012年中国GDP总量的估计,地方债的总量则为3万亿美元。而且中国本轮地方融资平台的增长大多是在2009年,借款期限大多是3-5年期的中长期贷款,即在今年下半年数千亿融资将集中到期。
  但事实是,很多地方融资平台眼下很难出款。而在目前基本不允许地方独立发债的体制下,地方政府只能被迫不断采用变相的、不规范的、不透明的、没有自我约束机制的方式融资,即便这些方式可能会带来“减少管制,融资活跃——经济过热,加剧偿债风险——政策收紧,经济减速”的恶性循环。因为地方政府不仅要发展当地经济,还必须向中央上交3/4的税收。
  面对从上面刮来的一阵阵厉风,无处可逃的中国地方政府学得灵活了,他们会想方设法把债务藏起来,向其他地方蔓延。归纳起来,可能的蔓延途径包括:卖地偿债;信托机构融资;银行贷款;债权计划;城投债;企业借债;民间借贷等。这些途径环环相扣,本身也蕴藏着极大的风险,但在中国经济结构畸形发展的情况下,地方债务也只能与这些死结越缠越紧,除非行政体制和财税体制得到真正的、彻底的改革。

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