华尔街一直在看跌期权中高歌猛进

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华尔街一直在看跌期权中高歌猛进。

 

2008金融危机为标志,前有格林斯潘看跌期权,后有伯南克看跌期权,指在经济下行、资本货币市场出现危机时释放大量货币救市。有意思的是,正是因为格林斯潘看跌期权的存在,人们希望伯南克以新一轮看跌期权补救泡沫除去后的空洞。

 

现在,华尔街又造出李克强看跌期权这一新词,解释中国维持7.5%经济增速的原因。

 

国际投资者面对中国经济下行一筹莫展,他们逐渐撤出中国金融、商业、资源等高风险行业,尤其是澳大利亚、巴西等上游资源出口国,配合中国投资扩张政策经济高速扩张。澳元几乎跟随中国投资而走,2008年金融危机前,澳元兑美元一路上涨,之后极度疲软,2009年以后再次跟随中国大规模投资上涨,直到2012年进入震荡走势,2013年随着中国经济下行再度下挫。澳元对中国投资的敏感度,超过了中国境内股票市场。

 

华尔街有些投行认为中国不可能让泡沫破裂,不得不维持投资规模,因此推出李克强看跌期权概念。但完成既有投资,不等于大规模发钞刺激经济。

 

中国不可能推出大规模经济刺激政策,那等于宣判中国经济未来死刑。大规模刺激国有经济使得经济效率大幅下降,造成了地方政府高达十几亿的负债。目前惟一能够大规模以溢价兑换的资产只剩下房地产,如果继续发钞推高房地产溢价,一旦泡沫崩溃,就失去了所有的溢价资产。从一系列的具体案例看,有门路的企业与个人从银行套取平价资金,而后向社会注入高利贷,一系列资金中介环节使资金成本高到15%左右,扼住了中小企业的咽喉。继续刺激经济,除了让中国经济提前进入衰老期,没有好处。

 

中国不可能大规模发行货币,中国广义货币发行量全球第一,几乎两倍于GDP的规模。以往银行发行货币主要靠外汇占款,以及政策性再贷款,现在人民币汇率忽高忽低、出口大幅下降,外汇占款直线下降,央行增加基础货币的主要通道被封堵,增加债券购买成为主要渠道,而中国的债券市场基本上是银行系统内部循环的封闭市场,定价不准确,信用体制不健全,让央行与美联储一样通过购买国债发放基础货币,很有可能是财政与央行成为政府的大出纳与小出纳,债务在体制内堆积,风险无法释放,无法为信用定价。

 

从资本与货币市场看,货币大量发放与投放效率低下,催生了银行庞大的表外资产,地下金融暗流涌动,最重要的是产生了世界规模最大的房地产泡沫,6月央行不向银行间市场注入流动性,多货币下的钱荒悖论,显示出大量的资金催生出恶性高负债,债权背后缺乏收益支撑,形同垃圾债。

 

大规模经济刺激、大规模发放货币在中国已经是过去式,大幅度增长的十年不会再现。这并不等于政府对高负债袖手旁观,任由现有建到一半的基础设施变成废铜烂铁,7月与8月央行进行逆回购注入流动性,政府希望民资进入城市管道、铁路等基本建设领域,民资置换出政府投资,目的是在不扩大政府与银行负债的前提下,完成基础设施建设,提高建设效率。转型与维持稳定不等于大规模投资,提出李克强看跌期权,是资本与货币市场诱多的老花招,比“金砖四国”之后的“维他命十国”更不靠谱。

 

金融危机之后,看跌期权已经有了新概念。伯南克看跌期权与格林斯潘看跌期权不同,格氏处于经济疯狂增长的好时机,一味注入货币之水,没等泡沫崩溃从美联储主席离任。而伯南克在经济稍有好转后,就放风可能逐步退出量化宽松的货币政策,并且美国监管部门秋后算帐,对于2008年之前的摩根大通、对冲基金等涉嫌内幕交易一一清算,提升未来金融市场风险的可控度。

 

长期的转型已拉开序幕,即使中国政府想刺激,也已无力刺激。上一任政府为了对冲风险,被迫进行大规模刺激政策,如今遭遇严峻挑战甚至被视为中国经济失衡的罪人,没有人会愿意在表面上继续正派经济。

 

        中国经济改革、结构调整迫在眉睫,经济保持在7.5%左右,只是为改革腾出空间,以免改革未成先成仁。中国不存在大规模刺激经济的可能,也就不存在李克强看跌期权
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