叶檀:新一轮投资 大不易

上一篇 / 下一篇  2013-08-15 13:51:50 / 精华(3) / 置顶(1)


         近日,《人民日报》海外版刊文指出,新一轮投资与当年4万亿不同。希望不同,否则再过十年,中国经济不堪设想。
    把希望当成现实,忽略中国的实际状况,是天真而可笑的。每个人都希望投资有回报,地方政府也不例外,当能否有回报取决于诸多因素,绝不仅仅是愿望,愿望是渺小的,现实是残酷的。
    此次不同主要是目的不同、手段不同、监管不同。
    目的不同,不是应急,不助力产能过剩行业与高污染行业,而是着眼于经济结构调整与未来可持续发展。设想一番最美妙的前景,十年以后中国主要城市由高铁连接,城市群内部有便捷的轻轨地铁,大城市周边拱卫着数个甚至数十个卫星城发挥各自的作用,中国不再被产能过剩与严重的雾霾纠缠,城市没有类似于贫民窟的牛皮癣,大多数民众过着幸福快乐的生活
    这与上世纪五六十年代的日本与韩国相似,韩国与日本的手段是新农村运动,国民收入倍增计划,强力扶持本国市场化的大型企业,具有国际竞争力的大企业雏形初现,基础设施大致建成。
    中国的手段则是政府主导下的市场化。中国国际经济交流中心信息部部长徐洪才先生表示,此轮投资是通过增量资金投入,带动资本的存量结构和经济结构的调整,政府不再大包大揽,其资金只是起引导作用,更多的是把投资机会让给了民间和市场。政府简政放权,改善服务,加强监管,降低了人流、物流、信息流等生产要素的成本,而民间力量可以解决资金不足,最终通过效率审计向社会交代。政府不是市场主体,而是规划与监管主体。
    随新一轮投资而来的不再是地方政府与国企财力的突飞猛进,而是投资制度、投资主体、投资监管体制的整体改革。
    此次大规模投资是否有应急的成分?应该有。中央财政到地方财政收入直线下降,地方全靠房地产支撑,负债率高到6月份出现银行之间的高利拆借,而资源依赖型城市与传统低端出口城市,不是已经崩盘,就是前景不妙。不管是否有救急考虑,地方政府火烧眉毛之际,必然有应急之举。
    目前基建公司基本是国有企业,债务情况最糟糕的会通过BT等模式将工程外包给民企公司。地方政府不愿意放权,更不愿意交出肥差。中国基础建设以地方政府公司化为基石,以房地产作为融资品的唯一来源,这一结构如铁板一块,丝毫没有松动的迹象,民资进入意味着原有结构大调整,从公司到监管都需要重塑,这不比骆驼穿过针眼轻松。
    地方政府尊重各股东权利,是铁板松动的根基。很多地方、国企的放权是虚晃一枪,以铁路为例,建立吸引民资的投资公司后,民资不具有管理权与分红权,连详尽的报表也不愿意给民资股东,他们要的就是钱,至于用什么名目,并不重要。
    比尊重股东更重要的是严守信用。目前地方政府十个锅子五个盖的游戏还能够持续,重要原因是土地升值,另一个原因是抵押物造假,一些不义银行、信托揣着明白装糊涂,包装成产品卖给公众。《第一财经日报》报道,一家大型资产评估机构的董事长说,“有的地方甚至把高速公路的绿化带用地都拿来作为抵押物,忽悠银行和信托机构,理财产品和信托产品卖疯了,背后的有效抵押往往不多。”这与笔者了解的情况差不多,风险无法控制的金融产品就是庞氏骗局,撑死胆大的,饿死胆小的。
    政府守信,金融才有希望,新一轮改革才有眉目,政府不守信,地方基建必然倒推出债务泡沫与房地产泡沫,最后玉石俱焚。
    政府主导下的改革有些端倪,15平方公里的新加坡·南京生态科技岛,开发商与政府各持有一半股份,总投入资金超过千亿元。实施中,项目实施单位负责编制整体开发的初步设计概算,审计部门负责对此进行审计,以确定整体开发的初步成本,分期开发完成后,审计部门再实施分期决算审计,经累加形成整体开发成本的最终决算。在巨大的压力下,终于有地方政府觉醒。
    政府主导是现实,鼓励政府与企业双赢,以监管与法律为民资划出救济底线,才能有不同的投资效果。

站内搜索:

TAG:

引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2018-07-21 21:39:52
Hurting chemicals are missing and thought is obliged to make i <a href="http://www.49ersfootballgear.com/women-joe-montana-jersey/">Joe Montana Authentic Jersey</a> t in such a course, to the point that th <a href="http://www.49ersfootballgear.com/women-joe-williams-jersey/">49ers Joe Williams Jersey</a> ere is no space for damaging things to work together with the touchy private organ of a solitary individual. Belonging to the three, comprehensive is definitely the most costly and it is primarily  <a href="http://www.49ersfootballgear.com/women-joe-montana-jersey/">49ers Joe Montana Jersey</a> u
引用 删除 shekplos7p   /   2018-07-21 19:43:01
Herbal Cheap Jerseys China formula of these capsules upgrades process of ovu <a href="http://www.cheapoutletnfljerseys.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys China</a> lation wh <a href="http://www.cheapoutletnfljerseys.us.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys China</a> ich improves fertility in women and which increases chances of pregnancy. This helps them to get rid of the wet feeling and they do routine activities very comfor <a href="http://www.cheapoutletnfljerseys.us.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys</a> tably. Eасh оf уou w?ll bе rested, hаve а fresh outlo
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-07-20 20:08:32
They akin to figure skating with giant trucks,Joshua Garnett Jersey, driver <a href="http://www.49ersfootballgear.com/women-joshua-garnett-jersey/">Joshua Garnett Jersey</a> s are free to select their own course around the track and its o <a href="http://www.49ersfootballgear.com/women-reuben-foster-jersey/">Reuben Foster Authentic Jersey</a> bstacles. It usually contains alcohol or acetone,Reuben Foster Authentic Jersey, and they can fret dry or sensitive skin. However how do you know that they are r
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-07-20 17:06:03
" U. The stronger China and America can become,Customized Jets Jerse <a href="http://www.footballjetsonline.com/customized/">Customized Jets Jerseys</a> ys, the str <a href="http://www.footballjetsonline.com/women-ardarius-stewart-jersey/">Jets ArDarius Stewart Jersey</a> onger the world will be," McCarthy told Xinhua.we don't see the economy as overheating now," Fed Chair Janet Yellen said Wednesday at a press conference, su <a href="http://www.footballjetsonline.com/women-ardarius-stewart-jersey/">ArDarius Stewart Jersey</a> ggesting the Fed had the opportunity to allow the labor market to
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-07-20 07:40:47
Final results is not going to happen right away and despite the fact that <a href="http://www.cardinalsapparelsshop.com/dorian-johnson-cardinals-jersey-c-56/">Dorian Johnson Jersey</a>  you can easily be frustrated, by mak <a href="http://www.cardinalsapparelsshop.com/haason-reddick-cardinals-jersey-c-51/">Haason Reddick Jersey</a> ing use of the information using this writeup to your daily life, you may support ensure you create the alterations you need.The core price index for personal consumption expenditure (PCE), <a href="http://www.cardinalsapparelsshop.com/dorian-johnson-cardinals-jersey-c-56/">Authentic Dorian Johnson Jersey</a>
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-07-19 15:27:35
I <a href="http://www.footballredskinsonline.com/women-kirk-cousins-jersey/">Redskins Kirk Cousins Jersey</a> t’s lab <a href="http://www.footballredskinsonline.com/women-josh-doctson-jersey/">Josh Doctson Jersey</a> orious enough,Redskins Kirk Cousins Jersey, usually, selecting one issue out from among the alternativesyou see at a daily costume stor <a href="http://www.footballredskinsonline.com/women-kirk-cousins-jersey/">Kirk Cousins Jersey</a> e. The thing has been exhibited accurately starting late at any rate it has amassed bit of fans and admirers.sg>Acne<a> Care at home.One monster truck show u
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-07-19 00:05:41
You must keep  <a href="http://www.adidas-nmd-r1.us.com/">adidas nmd black</a> the enjoyment region obvious and well organized. Should you be askin <a href="http://www.adidas-nmd-r1.us.com/">adidas nmd triple black</a> g your self why is not everyone successful money with sports activities betting, the reason is which is impossibe to just one p <a href="http://www.adidas-nmd-r1.us.com/">nmd triple black</a> erson, or an army of individuals, to uncover the excepcional betting situations, where you’
引用 删除 shekplos7p   /   2018-07-18 14:55:36
Several hikers are urged to prepare <a href="http://www.cheapnbajerseyschinashop.com/">Cheap Jerseys</a>  for the worst, <a href="http://www.cheapnbajerseyschinashop.com/">Wholesale NBA Jerseys Cheap</a>  just incase.SQL Server 2005 SP4 hotfix to an installation of SQL Server 2005 Service Pack 4.See, ?t wasn't th <a href="http://www.cheapnbajerseyschinashop.com/">Cheap Jerseys From China</a> аt bad.Do not do the work on behalf of your child: Some parents just lose the patience to teach the child, but to protect him from getting p
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-07-17 22:02:43
It's like snails, moving snail's pa <a href="http://www.cardinalsapparelsshop.com/tj-logan-cardinals-jersey-c-59/">T. J. Logan Womens Jersey</a> ce," Ban said at a highlevel event on climate cha <a href="http://www.cardinalsapparelsshop.com/david-johnson-cardinals-jersey-c-33/">David Johnson Jersey</a> nge referring to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations currently taking place in Bonn,T. J. Logan Womens Jersey, ahead of the official 2015 climate change confer <a href="http://www.cardinalsapparelsshop.com/adrian-peterson-cardinals-jersey-c-64/">Adrian Peterson Cardinals Jersey</a> ence set to take place
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-07-17 17:03:46
L <a href="http://www.authoritypackersshop.com/kenny-clark-packers-jersey-c-41/">Kenny Clark Womens Jersey</a> et us discuss about few of  <a href="http://www.authoritypackersshop.com/marwin-evans-packers-jersey-c-72/">Marwin Evans Jersey</a> eye surgery, its causes and impact on the patient. Abundance of the sun leads to skin damage. It can arise in both children as well as adults. It is tough to gauge by trying at an image o <a href="http://www.authoritypackersshop.com/vince-biegel-packers-jersey-c-64/">Authentic Vince Biegel Jersey</a> n the display,Kenny Clark Womens Jersey, whether or not an elaborate dress is going t
引用 删除 shekplos9t   /   2018-07-17 13:07:37
He added that he would like to be used as an example of the consequence <a href="http://www.cheapdiscountjerseysnfl.us.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys</a> s of listening to and supporting hostile forces overseas and at home, and t <a href="http://www.cheapdiscountjerseysnfl.us.com/">Wholesale NFL Jerseys</a> o inform the public of the dangers of the socalled "democracy," "human rights" and "public benefits" flaunted by them as a mask for criminal activities.  <a href="http://www.cheapdiscountjerseysnfl.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys From China</a> i
引用 删除 shekplos7p   /   2018-07-17 01:29:32
You ?hоuld train yоur dog tо walk properly оn hi? leash.Investigation int <a href="http://www.cheapnikenfljerseysshop.us.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys Free Shipping</a> o th <a href="http://www.cheapnikenfljerseysshop.us.com/">Cheap NFL Jerseys China Wholesale</a> e cause of the accident is underway. The element that helps make the LCD panel actually stand out is the entertaining animations which permit you know when you are driving for ideal fuel effectiveness in the sort of growin <a href="http://www.cheapnikenfljerseysshop.us.com/">Wholesale NFL Jerseys</a> g
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-07-17 00:47:36
Having the Baby Quasar will s <a href="http://www.adidasultraboostblack.us.com/">Ultra Boost Triple Black</a> ave you th <a href="http://www.adidasultraboostblack.us.com/">Adidas Ultra Boost Triple White</a> e trips down to the salondoctor for your treatment! Do it at the comfort of your home and see results. Use eye cream to improve its. 11, 2001 att <a href="http://www.adidasultraboostblack.us.com/">Ultra Boost White</a> acks,Ultra Boost Triple Black, announced Thursday that he was running for the 2016 presidential race. There are no n
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-07-16 16:24:58
Within few years, medical industry has made many <a href="http://www.cheapshoxclearance.com/">nike shox outlet clearance</a>  achievements. This surgery har <a href="http://www.cheapshoxclearance.com/cheap-nike-shox-nz/nike-shox-nz-mens.html">nike shox nz mens</a> dly takes 1520 minutes; it is painless and requires counseling before and after before and after the surgery. The one hundred % winners software calculates the precise quantities,nike shox ou <a href="http://www.cheapshoxclearance.com/nike-shox-avenue-leather/nike-shox-avenue-mens.html">nike shox avenue mens black</a> tlet clearance, that you need
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-07-15 20:37:52
There are so many gift ideas for you to select you gift from that I <a href="http://www.teamnhlislandersshop.com/authentic-john-tavares-islanders-jersey-sale/">John Tavares Jersey Sale</a>  am certain you will find something online for your Nan. Final results is no <a href="http://www.teamnhlislandersshop.com/authentic-pat-lafontaine-islanders-jersey-sale/">at LaFontaine Jersey</a> t going to happen right away and despite the fact that you can easily be frustrated, by making use of the information using this writeup to your daily life, <a href="http://www.teamnhlislandersshop.com/authentic-billy-smith-islanders-jersey-sale/">Billy Smith Jersey</a>
引用 删除 shekplos7p   /   2018-07-15 19:48:09
This discharge is completely normal and is very good as it protects <a href="http://www.wholesalefootballnfljerseysshop.com/">Wholesale Jerseys</a>  vagina from infection.In July, the MAS core inflat <a href="http://www.wholesalefootballnfljerseysshop.com/">Wholesale NFL Jerseys Cheap</a> ion of Singapore picked up to 1. These two themes coincide with the Organic Marxism theory,"" Clayton told Xinhua in an interview on Wednesday.You’re  <a href="http://www.wholesalefootballnfljerseysshop.com/">Wholesale NFL Jerseys China</a> However the 1 – Shania Twain Bes
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-07-15 17:30:29
…Barbados, Republic Bank option also being pursued – Ramjattan Leader <a href="http://www.wholesalejerseyscheapauthentic.us.com/">Wholesale Nike NFL Jerseys</a>  of the Alliance for Change (AFC), Khemraj Ramjattan,Wholesa <a href="http://www.nflchinajerseyscheap.us.com/">China Jerseys Cheap</a> le Nike NFL Jerseys, is maintaining that the people behind the Marriott Hotel, specifically Winston Brassington, former President Bharrat Jagdeo and the Finance Minister  <a href="http://www.cheapnbajerseysstore.us.com/">Cheap Jerseys Online</a> D
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-07-15 07:49:57
55 dollars a barrel on the London ICE Futures Exchange. Skin toner is a compleme <a href="http://www.49ersfootballgear.com/hats/">Authentic 49ers Hats</a> ntary remedy <a href="http://www.49ersfootballgear.com/women-navorro-bowman-jersey/">NaVorro Bowman Authentic Jersey</a>  for extra cleansing to combination or oily skin. Appropriate for all types if skin,Authentic 49ers Hats, approve its overall appearance.The lowcost loan provider <a href="http://www.49ersfootballgear.com/women-carlos-hyde-jersey/">49ers Carlos Hyde Jersey</a> s get access to quite a few beneficial bank lo
引用 删除 mynamikw9x   /   2018-07-15 06:17:33
They may come in liquid or bar form."We need more compan <a href="http://www.teamnhlislandersshop.com/authentic-denis-potvin-islanders-jersey-sale/">Denis Potvin Authentic Jersey</a> ies like BYD in California <a href="http://www.teamnhlislandersshop.com/authentic-billy-smith-islanders-jersey-sale/">Billy Smith Jersey</a>  that are training and building up a workforce of skilled individuals that are prepared for the manufacturing jobs of the future. Insurance is immensely useful, especially when your car might be hit by a powerful unin <a href="http://www.teamnhlislandersshop.com/authentic-pat-lafontaine-islanders-jersey-sale/">Islanders Pat LaFontaine Jersey</a> s
引用 删除 dgs2u6cc   /   2018-07-14 18:35:16
Once you see your accomplishments you  <a href="http://www.adidasultraboostblack.us.com/">Ultra Boost Triple White</a> will be determined  <a href="http://www.adidasultraboostblack.us.com/">Adidas Ultra Boost Blue</a> to continue working hard on personalized development.It’s onerous to deny how handy ordering your Halloween costumes at an internet p <a href="http://www.adidasultraboostblack.us.com/">Ultra Boost Shoes</a> rimarily based costume store can be.com gives you wide opportunity to find the best Eye Surgeons in Delhi, Eye
 

评分:0

我来说两句

显示全部

:loveliness: :handshake :victory: :funk: :time: :kiss: :call: :hug: :lol :'( :Q :L ;P :$ :P :o :@ :D :( :)

日历

« 2018-07-23  
1234567
891011121314
15161718192021
22232425262728
293031    

数据统计

  • 访问量: 121142
  • 日志数: 920
  • 建立时间: 2007-08-16
  • 更新时间: 2013-08-15

RSS订阅

Open Toolbar