叶檀:新一轮投资 大不易

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         近日,《人民日报》海外版刊文指出,新一轮投资与当年4万亿不同。希望不同,否则再过十年,中国经济不堪设想。
    把希望当成现实,忽略中国的实际状况,是天真而可笑的。每个人都希望投资有回报,地方政府也不例外,当能否有回报取决于诸多因素,绝不仅仅是愿望,愿望是渺小的,现实是残酷的。
    此次不同主要是目的不同、手段不同、监管不同。
    目的不同,不是应急,不助力产能过剩行业与高污染行业,而是着眼于经济结构调整与未来可持续发展。设想一番最美妙的前景,十年以后中国主要城市由高铁连接,城市群内部有便捷的轻轨地铁,大城市周边拱卫着数个甚至数十个卫星城发挥各自的作用,中国不再被产能过剩与严重的雾霾纠缠,城市没有类似于贫民窟的牛皮癣,大多数民众过着幸福快乐的生活
    这与上世纪五六十年代的日本与韩国相似,韩国与日本的手段是新农村运动,国民收入倍增计划,强力扶持本国市场化的大型企业,具有国际竞争力的大企业雏形初现,基础设施大致建成。
    中国的手段则是政府主导下的市场化。中国国际经济交流中心信息部部长徐洪才先生表示,此轮投资是通过增量资金投入,带动资本的存量结构和经济结构的调整,政府不再大包大揽,其资金只是起引导作用,更多的是把投资机会让给了民间和市场。政府简政放权,改善服务,加强监管,降低了人流、物流、信息流等生产要素的成本,而民间力量可以解决资金不足,最终通过效率审计向社会交代。政府不是市场主体,而是规划与监管主体。
    随新一轮投资而来的不再是地方政府与国企财力的突飞猛进,而是投资制度、投资主体、投资监管体制的整体改革。
    此次大规模投资是否有应急的成分?应该有。中央财政到地方财政收入直线下降,地方全靠房地产支撑,负债率高到6月份出现银行之间的高利拆借,而资源依赖型城市与传统低端出口城市,不是已经崩盘,就是前景不妙。不管是否有救急考虑,地方政府火烧眉毛之际,必然有应急之举。
    目前基建公司基本是国有企业,债务情况最糟糕的会通过BT等模式将工程外包给民企公司。地方政府不愿意放权,更不愿意交出肥差。中国基础建设以地方政府公司化为基石,以房地产作为融资品的唯一来源,这一结构如铁板一块,丝毫没有松动的迹象,民资进入意味着原有结构大调整,从公司到监管都需要重塑,这不比骆驼穿过针眼轻松。
    地方政府尊重各股东权利,是铁板松动的根基。很多地方、国企的放权是虚晃一枪,以铁路为例,建立吸引民资的投资公司后,民资不具有管理权与分红权,连详尽的报表也不愿意给民资股东,他们要的就是钱,至于用什么名目,并不重要。
    比尊重股东更重要的是严守信用。目前地方政府十个锅子五个盖的游戏还能够持续,重要原因是土地升值,另一个原因是抵押物造假,一些不义银行、信托揣着明白装糊涂,包装成产品卖给公众。《第一财经日报》报道,一家大型资产评估机构的董事长说,“有的地方甚至把高速公路的绿化带用地都拿来作为抵押物,忽悠银行和信托机构,理财产品和信托产品卖疯了,背后的有效抵押往往不多。”这与笔者了解的情况差不多,风险无法控制的金融产品就是庞氏骗局,撑死胆大的,饿死胆小的。
    政府守信,金融才有希望,新一轮改革才有眉目,政府不守信,地方基建必然倒推出债务泡沫与房地产泡沫,最后玉石俱焚。
    政府主导下的改革有些端倪,15平方公里的新加坡·南京生态科技岛,开发商与政府各持有一半股份,总投入资金超过千亿元。实施中,项目实施单位负责编制整体开发的初步设计概算,审计部门负责对此进行审计,以确定整体开发的初步成本,分期开发完成后,审计部门再实施分期决算审计,经累加形成整体开发成本的最终决算。在巨大的压力下,终于有地方政府觉醒。
    政府主导是现实,鼓励政府与企业双赢,以监管与法律为民资划出救济底线,才能有不同的投资效果。

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